Apache Dawn 8/1 4th and Usetheforce 10/1 non runner, Northern Empire unplaced, ONE A DAY Higgy Boy places, Acordeon placed under the Champion Jock, at Punchestown, the winner did come from the front 3 in the betting market, Walsingham 9th at 20/1 , Noticeable won, Quevega won – market move telling , Gee Dee Enn and Threatening to pay filled the place berths , Sports Line won, Crank Hill 7th at 5/1 , Only Dreams 6th at 11/2 , Von Origny 8th at 20/1 , Peachy Moment 7th at 9/2 , Steel City Boy 1st at 9/2 , Bernabau 4tyh at 13/2
So, ONE A DAY placed horse wins and, if focussing on sub 5/1 market movers, then Peach Moment 7th at 9/2 and Steel City Boy 1st at 9/2 ( see article in new newsletter)
Both footy bets won with ease as expected ( can act as alternatives to the place only bets and would seem to be far easier to select and more reliable)
150 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Ravello Bay, 7/2 Alflora Dora, 6/1 Purely By Chance, Wistow, 7/1 Moonlit Path, 10/1 Sawpit Solitaire, 12/1 Midsummer Legend, 14/1 Molly Rodgers, 16/1 Mrs Fawlty, 20/1 Another Present, 25/1 Melody, 66/1 Tara Whale, 100/1 Bitesize, 150/1 Ma Burls.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RAVELLO BAY broke a blood vessel when 4-5 favourite on her hurdle debut last time, but was decent in bumpers, is a sister to the 11-time bumper/hurdle winner Marello and looks worth another chance. The main danger could be Alflora Dora, and Purely By Chance could go well if not flattered by her latest fourth behind some decent types. [DM]
Ravello Bay now 8/13 in places – 3 non runners, Wistow th only one at a signifiant price. 1.16 to place
200 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Under Review, 15/2 Lois Darlin, 9/1 Wicksy Creek, 10/1 Thoosa, 12/1 Beaux Yeux, 14/1 Air Lion, Fiuntas, 16/1 Field Fantasy, Only Hope, 66/1 Poaka Beck.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: UNDER REVIEW shaped with promise on his Lingfield introduction and, with plenty more to offer, he ought to get the job done at this level.[BDO]
A maiden race here with Spencer on board the market leader, and a whopping move for Air Lion from 14/1 betting forecast into 9/2. If sub 5/1 at the off, that’s an each way bet for me.
Only 2 horses under 10/1 in the betting forecast but remember – 5 furlong maiden race 1.13 to place -Spencer has been in very good form of late – on a market leader here and generally gets the job done
220 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Elite Land, 11/2 Imminent Victory, 6/1 Lepido, 17/2 Kavaloti, 9/1 Storm Haven, 10/1 Istron Bay, 11/1 Silver Bank, 12/1 Early Wings, Starr Flyer, 14/1 Noubian, 16/1 Spanish Cruise, 18/1 Gainsborough´s Art, 25/1 Palos Conti, Quintus, 33/1 Zion, 50/1 Keepholdin, Northern Lad, 66/1 Webbswood Lad.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ELITE LAND looked firmly on the upgrade when winning at Wetherby last month and may be able to shrug off a 12lb rise. The main danger is Imminent Victory, while Lepido would be very interesting if attracting support, and Storm Haven could be menacing if in the mood. [DM]
Move for Early wings at 7/1 currently.
Elite land around the 2/1 marker at present 1.42 to place
230 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Dancing Lyra, 5/2 My Friend Fritz, 4/1 Wabbraan, 5/1 Bring It On Home, 8/1 Sophist, 14/1 Borouj, 50/1 Matinee Idol, Shadow Jumper, Super King.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for the once useful DANCING LYRA to build upon a recent encouraging first run on this surface.[BDO]
A seller over middle distances is not ideal. 3 horses are under 10/1 in the live market with the front 2 7/4 and 2/1
240 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Scolboa Music Man, 5/1 Tom´s Last Euro, 11/2 Bracken Lad, 7/1 Cassius, 9/1 Presque Perdre, 10/1 Lets Go Girls, 14/1 Sirkeel, 20/1 Rowdy Rampage, 33/1 Beau Regard, Dancing Dik, Mister Marker, Stormin Exit, 66/1 Kings Guard, 150/1 Parkett Hill.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SCOLBOA MUSIC MAN excelled himself in better company at Down Royal earlier in the month and he ought to have plenty to offer in this less demanding company. Tom’s Last Euro and Bracken Lad may be best of the others.[EMW]
Sirkeel now 6/1 potential market mover? Fav 1.96 to place should sounda note of caution
250 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Pasco, 3/1 The Duke´s Speech, 7/1 Opera De Coeur, 10/1 Idarah, 25/1 King In Waiting, 50/1 Peak Seasons.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PASCO should be hard to beat if he repeats or advances on his Newbury effort, with The Duke’s Speech preferred of the others.[EMW]
2 horses at 100/1 can surely be discounted ? Leaves then4 vying for 2 places and a strong market leader into 1/2 Now 1.26 to place which is a reasonable offer I suppose with 2 outsiders reducing the field (the competitive field)
305 NAD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Stubbs Art, 5/1 Echoes Rock, 7/1 Kal Barg, 8/1 Pointing North, Valedictum, 10/1 Glow Star, 14/1 Mojito Royale, 16/1 Emirates Gold, 20/1 Akua´Ba, 33/1 Boston Lodge,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The one that stands out in a field of largely exposed sorts is STUBBS ART, who was within striking distance of top-class Henrythenavigator in both the English and Irish 2,000 Guineas last year but who gets in here on a potentially lenient 105 mark and who should get plenty of cover from his draw.
Price gapper here bt as ever in the desert, smart performers all through the field 1.34 to place – illiquid market
310 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Toulouse Express, 7/2 Storm Surge, 4/1 Carrietau, More Like It, 6/1 Frith, 9/1 Duke Of Malfi, 33/1 Hickory Lane.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The top five have been mixing it regularly in recent months. Toulouse Express had the best of latest exchanges but his strike-rate is a concern and MORE LIKE IT, with the return to a shorter trip in his favour, is preferred.[FC]
Hickory Lane 14/1in the traditional 16/1 system mould
Hickory Lane 14/1 in the traditional 16/1 system mould. The best performers though for these lunchtime movers have been sub 5/1
315 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 River Canon, 3/1 Financialregulator, 7/2 Chicago Grey, 9/1 Bincas Beauty, 10/1 Baily Light, 12/1 Claras Chestnut, 14/1 Now Wich One, Rockfield Fox, Woodquest, 16/1 Good Man Sir, Naynagh Native, 20/1 Ma Arnai, Oh Johnny, Swallow Cliff, 33/1 Garra Beau, No Quitter, 50/1 Belass Boy, Edmond Point,
Chicago Grey now fav – significant? 1.37 to place
325 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Mahonia, 3/1 Son Of Flicka, 9/2 Mcmurrough, 7/1 Cracboumwiz, 8/1 Helpston, 11/1 King Ar Aghaidh, 12/1 Martys Mission, 14/1 Time For Rupert, 20/1 Teddy´s Reflection, 25/1 Pale Rider.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mahonia has leading claims on the pick of his form but has to bounce back from a disappointment behind SON OF FLICKA (nap) last time. The selection stepped up significantly that day and may be able to confirm the form with the promising McMurrough. [DM]
Helpston would interest if breaching the5/1 marker (currently 5/1 -would like to see 9/2 at the off or lower)
340 NAD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Honour Devil, 7/2 Tiz Now Tiz Then, 10/1 Dijeerr, Little White Lie, 14/1 Monte Alto, 33/1 Wingbeat, 50/1 Estihdaaf, 66/1 Fleurie, Jaffal.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Honour Devil is clearly the one to beat but he’ll be a prohibitive price for one that has reportedly had a few problems and for one conceding weight all round on this first start since his UAE Derby romp last March. Tiz Now Tiz Then is interesting judged on his US dirt form but his stable hasn’t exactly thrived at recent Carnivals and an each-way chance is taken with DIJEERR. Admittedly, he’s disappointed on both his turf runs for this stable but the tongue tie could be the key and, although unproven on dirt, both his pedigree and his run style suggest the surface should suit. [RY]
Jonny Murtagh on board the favourite must be considered – 1.06 to place will not be the place price at the off – this market has not formed so those odds are way out of line with correct market
Why is Wingbeat currently 20/1 in places?
345 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 1/10 Quwetwo, 14/1 Alan´s Legacy, 20/1 Maxwellton Braes, 25/1 Classic Henri, 33/1 Dallas Bell, Tommy Tobougg, 50/1 Prince Tam, Quick Man, 100/1 Ashgrove Diamond, Shahramore.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to imagine a more one-sided affair with QUWETWO, the class act on the card (holds entries in novice hurdles at Cheltenham Festival), facing seemingly moderate opposition. Maxwellton Braes looks the best each-way alternative.[FC]
Rangers were 1/10 yesterday and won 4/1
Rangers were 1/10 yesterday away from home and won 4-0.
A penalty kick here? 1.13 to win and 1.05 to place
355 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Minella Four Star, 5/1 Aheadofhistime, 11/2 By George, 6/1 Big Rob, 8/1 Marufo, Peut Etre Sivola, 10/1 Just Jaffa, Kitski, 14/1 Oncle Kid, 16/1 Quidonc, 20/1 See The View, Von Galen, 25/1 Mort De Rire, Orchard King, 33/1 Pharanto, Uncle Eli, 50/1 Nacimo, Safari Adventures.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MINELLA FOUR STAR looks potentially well treated for his handicap debut and gets the marginal vote ahead of By George, Big Rob and Aheadofhistime. [DM]
Mort de Rire 16/1 currently – significant?
marufo is 4/1 – not as spectacular a market move but, as said, sub 5/1 horses who are market movers have performed admirably
405 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Back In The Red, 7/2 This Ones For Eddy, 9/2 Blue Charm, 10/1 Royal Challenge, 12/1 Mission Impossible, 14/1 Imprimis Tagula, Peter´s Storm, 16/1 Dorn Dancer, Gainshare, Savile´s Delight.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BACK IN THE RED (nap) continues to thrive and, even with a penalty, remains one to stick with after an fairly impressive win over This Ones For Eddy here a week ago.[BDO]
Inprimus Tagula and Mission Impossible market movers
415 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Nelliedonethat, 3/1 Panama At Once, 7/2 Trisons Star, 10/1 Something Silver, 14/1 Incas, 16/1 Innominate, 20/1 Almire Du Lia, Skenfrith, 25/1 Chamacco, 50/1 Benbeoch.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The possibility that the likes of Almire Du Lia and Chamacco will come back to life cannot be dismissed, but it will probably pay to concentrate on Trisons Star, Panama At Once and NELLIEDONETHAT (nap). The last-named could still be a step ahead of the handicapper and is preferred to Panama At Once.[FC]
Chamacco 6/1 , Skenfrith 9/1 and Almira du Lira 10/1 – big market movers
450 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Big Boots, 5/1 Errington, 6/1 Against The Wind, 10/1 Turtle Spirit, 12/1 Turbo Island, 16/1 Bad Lashes, Shambery, 50/1 Primitive Fire, Tipsy Dara.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The outcome probably hangs to a great extent on the wellbeing of BIG BOOTS who must be very hard to beat if in the same form as he was – following a similar absence – last March. Against The Wind may give him most to do.[FC]
Priice gapper in a bumper Big Boots with Turbo Island at 7/1 currently. Bumpers mean the live market is a must to monitor for gambles 1.22 to placae
500 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Take The Stand, 15/8 Menchikov, 9/2 You Do The Math, 7/1 Nykel, 14/1 Yann´s, 33/1 Quid Pro Quo, 50/1 Public Esteem, Star Double.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Take The Stand took some getting fit last year and it might pay to go with MENCHIKOV, who probably has a bigger career ahead of him at this stage than Peter Bowen’s fine old chaser.[EMW]
You do the Math interesting into 15/8 currently to split the 2 betting forecast market leaders 1.4 to place in an 8 runner race – 3 the place – might be worth a risk?
510 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 General Tufto, 11/2 Very Well Red, 8/1 Muncaster Castle, 10/1 Mister Benji, Moyoko, 12/1 Almahaza, 14/1 Ming Vase, Titus Gent, 20/1 Tapas Lad, 33/1 Only A Grand, Pembo, Piccolo Diamante, 50/1 Amber Ridge.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It’s hard to look beyond GENERAL TUFTO, who’s been in cracking form here recently and ought to find the reserves to complete a quickfire four-timer on this surface.[BDO]
YouYou
You know the drill – 0-52 handicap and a price gapper, BUT this one is on a 4 timer so may find the winning run ending soon, but today? Well he is certainly priced to bolt up today 1.19 to place
820 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Fin Vin De Leu, 6/4 Best In Class, 6/1 Independent James, 20/1 Esteem Lord, 25/1 Lyrical Intent.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fin Vin De Leu looks to set the standard here but BEST IN CLASS is probably open to the more improvement of the pair and can go one better than at Lingfield last time.[PSm]
3 fighting out for 2 places? 1.25 , 1.29 ,and 3.65 to place
ONE A DAY
The last race there, the 820 Kempton, has the makings of a relaistic probability race if the outsiders can be discounted
I would opt for the actual fav in the race at race time
Multiple handicap winners will lose eventually – that is a given, BUT the hint is in the market when these horses are likely to end their winning sequence and with odds on and a price gap, General Tufto is priced to pop home again OR AT LEAST be competitive enough to place?
The 500 Huntingdon is interesitng – although writing some 4 hours before race time, it would seem that You do the math is the mover here and the 1.40 place price (3 the place in an 8 runner race) is certainly enticing and may be worth a gamble ( although could spell end of my winning run!)
Qwetwo is quite obviously the standout at 1.13 to win. I don’t think we can entertain 1.05 to place as stakes would be double the win market
1/8 should win without the jockey having to look up from his daily paper!
240 NAD AL SHEEBA – Honour Devil has BAllydoyle’s Murtagh on board, runs in a 9 runner race with 3 horses at 50/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 6, 3 of whom will place. Looks a great bet this one BUT you may be put off by Spotlight’s observations
250 HUNTIONGDON
Pasco is in a small field, 2 of the runners are 100/1 or bigger and PAsco has been very well backed, BUT we must remember there’s only 2 places here
CONCLUSION
I am very much taken by Honour Devil today to place with Jonny Murtagh on board and this will be my selection. Concern at present with the lack of liquidity in the betting market for this race – there are no bets waiting to back him and some clown has put 1.09 for the backers which really is not the proper price
Qwetwo is the most obvious candidate solely in the win market – comfortable win on the cards here, but this is horse racing and anything can happen but I would risk the 1.13