Well I got a ticker tape parade in the streets of Killarney yesterday, and a civic reception. Congratulations by phone from Gordon Broooooooon and George Bush (although I suspect someone had to show him how to use the phone) why?
I read a juvnile novices hurdle race correctly! – Amazing scenes.
Yes Seven is my number was an unexpected but welcome winner. Shining gale at 8/1 was a good each way 2nd against the Nicholls/Walsh hotpot.
Liverpool are becoming a frustration from a betting perspective. Yes the unders came in no problem ( you should have traded out at 1.07 after about an hour) but they scuppered the Winning margin dutch with the Gerrard goal – scoundrels! You saw, I hope, another sequence which was broken at Barnsley and yesterday. Yes, Dirk “you couldn’t score in a brothel” Kuyt has bagged 2 goals now in 2 games.
The draw/draw in the Chelsea game paid out well.
Real MAdrid have now lost 3 away games on the trot. What is the likelihood of them losing a 4th – something to put in your diary from a sequencing perspective.
Two all weather venues remain today
The 720 is of some interest but returns are small. It looks a 2 horse race but for example £10 level stakes you’ll make about £1 on Given a choice and £5 on Fregate Island – equivalent of a 1/2 return on Fregate. BEar in mind this is an evening race so a lot of market activity could occur in the interim.
Place only betting with such a small field ? Well the 2 main market rivals are about 1.35 to place. I won’t bother, but may consider the dutch as there’s only 5 runners , 2 at double figure odds, and we’ll be covering 2 of those more likely.
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Dress To Impress, 5/2 Night Prospector, 8/1 Now You See Me, 16/1 Stoneacre Gareth .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With just four runners there is a chance that this may turn into a messy tactical affair but with Night Prospector very out of sorts when last seen it is hard to look past DRESS TO IMPRESS as things stand.[GN]
I am loathe to back shorties in small field all weather races, but probability wise, it has 3 to beat, hass the “hard to look past” and “this far easier and disappointing if he is beaten.”
Top RPR , 12 tips, sharp drop in class from 4 to 6, and a distance winner.
BUT 5 furlong claimers are not the staple diet of the successful punter.
Make you own minds up – is there enough evidence to back at current 8/15 – any shorter and I’ll have to sit it out.
In a quiet day betting wise where I am tempted to sit out the all weather venues with their small fields and tight knit prices generally, we have more difficult games in tonight’s football.
The Arse face a Milan side who, domestically, who have drawn their last 2 against Livorno and Parma. I had the lay of Livorno in a mug punter acca as Milan were 1/4 to win.
Their victories have all been by one goal bar one recent match against Genoa
Arsenal have been free scoring with 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 6 matches. But we did witness an out of sorts side at the weekend in the FA Cup ( and teh same could be said of Liverpool!)
Team news for the Arse will be vital here.Again I am drawn to a “neutral” bet here in the Winning Margin, by dutching 0 and 1 goals – cue Adebayor hatrick in the 91st minute!
The Celtic v Barcelona game you would think would be a far more srtaightforward game – a case of attack versus defence and see who can hold out the longest. Barcelona are coming off the back of a welcome away win at Zaragoza which will really boost the confidence and they always seem to score in every match
Celtic have won their last 6 ,BUT against weaker opposition and have their own Leo Mc Messi in Aiden McGeady – he’s a class act.
Vennegoor of HeEsselink scores regularly.
Celtic have fired on big Champions League nights at home and won their previous match 3-0 away from home which, prior to Champions League is always a timely boost.
The dentist’s dream patient, Ronaldinho may sit this one out ,as he has been doing regularly in domestic matches. However there is a wealth of firepower to eventually grind out a goal agains what will be a stubborn Celtic.
But what angle in?Can we get what the market thinks? – well Barcelona to qualify are 1.15 – resounding vote of confidence – Barca in the half time/full time are 3.3 – reasonable.
I’m going to try for a half time score dutch here on the 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1
Odds are 2.92 , 7.8 and 4.3
Straight £10 bets produce 80p loss on 0-0, £45 on Celtic 1-0, and £12.35 on Barca 1-0
This is in expectation of a tight first half.
For those who like a real gamble, perhaps the Draw/Celtic half time/full time at odds of 11.5 may appeal. Cue a late goal winner to leave Parkhead bouncing?
The likelihood of this occuring of course is all shown in the price but a small punt with stake you can write off will cover any surprises.
The Man UTd v Lyon game is far too close to call tonight. Lyon, though, do not look the usual invincible force domestically with a couple of recent “shock” defeats”, and Man Utd on the road have tended to find life difficult
It’s days like today where you’re scrambling for angles in that you can conclude this day is better served as a watching brief to enjoy the games rather than get any involvment. I said yesterday that this stage of the Champions LEague becomes more difficult to assess.