Honour Devil placed 3rd but was perhaps not the best bet of the day, given the fact the horse was off since March 2008
The market movers ran well (if we focus on UNDER 5/1 SP) and is a promising system as you will read in the next newsletter
125 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Clear Sailing, 11/4 North Parade, 5/1 Boss Hog, 7/1 West End Lad, 16/1 Jord, 20/1 Bookiebasher Babe, 50/1 Louisiade,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CLEAR SAILING looks to hold the best credentials despite the presence of another couple that like to race on the front end and he can make up for his narrow defeat here last time, possibly at the expense of West End Lad.[GN]
Move to 8/11 for the fav – it looks on the betting site that its an 8 runner race down to 6, BUT one horse was doubtful meaning he wasn’t mentioned in the betting forecast. Louisiade is a non runner.1.21 to place
140 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Captain Tidds, 11/2 Nike Walker, 7/1 Stance, 8/1 Green Belt Elite, Mistress To No One, 10/1 Kilmeena Magic, Miss Pebbles, 12/1 Insignia, 14/1 Darksideofthemoon, Prince Du Seuil, 16/1 Baby Car, 20/1 Danse Macabre, 33/1 Silver Prophet, 100/1 Boogie Dancer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The improving CAPTAIN TIDDS can build upon the solid platform of his latest creditable Towcester win and appeals in a race that’s not as competitive as the field size suggests. Nike Walker and Stance can emerge as the dangers.[BDO]
Conditional Jockeys event so caution required. MArket mover Green belt elite is 3/1 and if staying at sub 5/1 will be backed each way (or win and place Betfair)
Insignis another possible mover
150 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Clay Hollister, 3/1 Alderluck, 5/1 Quiver Hill, 11/2 Vagrant Emperor, 10/1 James De Vassy, 14/1 Galaxy Rock, 20/1 Go All Out, 33/1 Mongoose Alert, 50/1 Saint Espiegle, Waldo Pepper, 100/1 Magic Of The Isles, South Georgia.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It should pay to concentrate on CLAY HOLLISTER and Alderluck. Preference goes to the former who was mightily impressive when beating Quiver Hill at Sandown and has been found an opportunity to restore some reputation en route to Cheltenham next month.[BDO]
7 horses at 40/1 or bigger and McCoy on the hot pot – only 3 sub 10/1 with Vagrant the 3rd at the expense of Quiver Hill 1.26 to place
200 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Red Moloney, 4/1 Houston Dynimo, 10/1 Raincoat, 14/1 Chord, Geojimali, 20/1 Bee Sting, Pakineo Des Pictons, 33/1 Pontop, 200/1 Clandestino, Royal Citadel, Spare Days.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Cheltenham could be next stop for RED MOLONEY, who is held in the highest regard by his powerful stable, and there’s been nothing to criticize so far over hurdles. With the favourite likely to go off so short, Houston Dynimo will no doubt appeal to the each-way thieves.[AWJ]
As happens this time every year, some Cheltenham horses get a run out aat short prices. Now 1/3 in the live market 1.13 to place
Chord 10/1 in places
220 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Elk Trail, 6/1 Bite The Boss, 8/1 Foresight, Zarilan, 12/1 Stage Acclaim, 14/1 Double Parked, Le Brocquy, Top Ticket, 25/1 Ben Ami, 33/1 Okafranca, 50/1 King´s Alchemist.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ELK TRAIL was impressive when making a successful debut over hurdles at Catterick and can defy this penalty against what looks ordinary opposition.[BDO]
PRice gapper but in a novices hurdle where form is very thin on the ground, hinting at horses priced by trainer/jockey reputation
Le Brocquay 5/1 and I’d like to see him dip below for me to back each way 1.23 to place
Bite the Boss hint of a slight move at 4/1 from 6/1 betting forecast is backable each way I suppose but the move is not that big
245 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Royal Charm, 2/1 Burton Port, 4/1 According To Dick, 14/1 Quarl Ego, 16/1 Shinnecock Bay, 25/1 Wade Farm Billy, 33/1 Search For Gold, 66/1 Marley Roca, 100/1 Champagne Floozie.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROYAL CHARM, Burton Port and According To Dick look the three to concentrate on. The latter pair may well be capable of better than they were able to show on their last runs but preference is still for Royal Charm, who receives a handy weight concession as a 4yo and whose second in a Listed juvenile hurdle at Auteuil in September probably makes him the one to beat on this debut for Paul Nicholls. [MCu]
According to Dick now 6/4 with only 3 sub 16/1 – will this potential market move prove fruitful for place only backers According to Dick 1.25 to place
255 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Firth Of Forth, 100/30 Night Safe, 7/2 Sharajan, 5/1 Gentleman Jimmy, 11/2 Kildonnan, 14/1 Double Intruder, 16/1 New Team, 100/1 Auburn Grey.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sharajan is the most likely to figure prominently but he has won only once and is not straightforward, so for win purposes a chance is taken on KILDONNAN who did so well at this track on testing ground as a novice hurdler. Night Safe is next on the list.[RA]
Double Intrude 8/1
300 NAD AL SHEEBA
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Diana´s Choice, 5/1 Munaddam, 8/1 Beaver Patrol, Blue Sky Basin, 10/1 Benllech, Confuchias, Lessing, 14/1 Ans Bach, Charlies Island, 16/1 Keep Discovering,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: C&D specialist Munaddam should go well if back to his best but he’s high enough in the weights and a bigger danger is recent course winner Diana’s Choice, from the powerful Mike de Kock yard. She’s sure to go close but an each-way chance at much bigger odds is taken with CHARLIES ISL gD, who has had valid excuses for his last four defeats (limitations exposed in Grade 1 company in South Africa and hasn’t taken to dirt in UAE) but will be very well suited by the return to grass. [RY]
Price gapper here 1.43 to place
305 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Just Five, 9/2 Reigning In Rio, 7/1 Statute Book, 8/1 Le Petit Vigier, 10/1 Dispol Diva, 12/1 Kingaroo, Wahan, 14/1 Kinigi, Patronne, 25/1 Ed´s Pride, 33/1 Miss Moloney.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unexposed last-time-out winners JUST FIVE (nap) and Reigning In Rio make most appeal here with preference for the former who really took the eye with the manner of his success. Statute Book is also a potential improver, while Patronne might also go well at bigger odds if her new rider gets a tune out of her.[GN]
Price gapperhere1.57 to place is quite high for a price gapper
310 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Divers, 11/4 Grand Theatre, 3/1 Starbougg, 13/2 Night Force, 8/1 Empty Sky, 33/1 Tantobie, 66/1 Kopylova, 100/1 Vallani.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GRAND THEATRE has always looked a decent horse in the making and, although Ayr last time represented a backward step, this kinder surface could easily make all the difference to him. Divers is on the upgrade for his new yard and, wherever he finishes, Starbougg should be in close attendance.[AWJ]
Potential probability race here. Outsiders in the live market at 100/1 , 100/1 , and 40/1 reduce the competitive field, it is hoped, down to 5, 3 of whom will place 1.21 to palce
340 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Longboat Key, 100/30 High Cross, 7/1 Key Decision, 8/1 Sambulando, 10/1 Keen Warrior, 12/1 Miss Keck, 16/1 Antipodean, Lady Dunhill, Teddy West, 25/1 Mochua, 33/1 Diktaram, Spruzzo, Tagalura.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Longboat Key is the pick on form on his Bath third last autumn but has proved expensive to follow this year and might find HIGH CROSS too strong. Sir Mark Prescott’s filly will relish this longer distance, though the likes of the older brigade Keen Warrior, Key Decision and possibly Sambulando should also ensure it will be no cakewalk.[GN
Front 2 I have place backed previously Lady Dunhill adn Mochua the movers here
345 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Brave Rebellion, Noir Et Vert, Our Jasper, 9/2 Mr Preacher Man, 5/1 Kalmo Bay, 13/2 Top Dressing, 10/1 South Bronx, 50/1 Has Scored.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BRAVE REBELLION (nap) may have stopped quickly at Ascot last time but he travelled well to a point on ground that was more demanding than the official description of good to
Save Now
soft implies, and he’s fancied to see his race out a lot better round here. Ferdy Murphy is double-handed and the presence of Graham Lee suggests Noir Et Vert is the pick, while Our Jasper and Mr Preacher Man also have claims.[AWJ]
Noir et Vert into 9/4 1.61 to place no gimme
405 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Obaki De Grissay, 4/1 The Ring, 11/2 Le Beau Bai, 13/2 Joyryder, 7/1 The Risky Viking, 8/1 Keenan´s Future, Present M´Lord, 14/1 That´s An Idea.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Obaki De Grissay deserves plenty of enthusiasm but KEENAN’S FUTURE can be forgiven his reappearance effort, which was not devoid of promise over an inadequate trip, and has been given a chance by the handicapper. The Risky Viking is even better handicapped but cannot be trusted to jump well enough to take advantage.[RA]
Joy rider and Present m Lord 2 movers at 4/1
Present m Lord is the interesting one
420 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Morning Sunshine, Royal Flynn, 6/1 Strobe, 7/1 Farne Island, 8/1 Brian´s Journey, Ella Woodcock, 10/1 Grand Art, Quinder Spring, 12/1 Beau Largesse, 16/1 Solis, 20/1 Chief Scout, 25/1 Ormus, Titinius, 33/1 Ice Image.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Morning Sunshine has gained plenty of experience in novice company and that will stand him in good stead now handicapping, but there are a few in here with the potential to leave previous form behind and they include BRIAN’S JOURNEY, a Flat-bred gelding who could be a different proposition on this better ground.[AWJ]
3 market movers in Ormus (16/1) , Chief scout (7/1) And BEau LArgesse (7/1)
440 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Forty Five, 13/2 Fujin Dancer, 7/1 Darn Hot, 8/1 Song In My Heart, 9/1 Solitary Palm, 12/1 Cash For Honours, 16/1 Decree Nisi, Ocarito, Pipers Legend, 25/1 Freddy´s Star, 33/1 Custers Last Stand, Dalaram,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some of his rivals – for instance Fujin Dancer, Darn Hot and Song In My Heart – are newcomers to handicaps but FORTY FIVE (nap) has a great deal less to prove than the rest and is the obvious place to turn after an encouraging win last time out.[RA]
Price gapper here 1.35 to place
450 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Dazzling Begum, 5/1 Bright Sparky, 6/1 Safin, 7/1 Rub Of The Relic, 8/1 Eforetta, 12/1 John Dillon, Lisbon Lion, My Mirasol, Tyrana, 20/1 Snake Skin, Speagle, Top Tiger, 25/1 Adversane,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bright Sparky has to be respected if the blinkers continue to assist but a more reliable proposition is DAZZLING BEGUM, whose recent form here reads well in the context of this.[BDO]
Eforetta interesting if staying 9/2
455 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Wave Power, 3/1 Saveiro, 6/1 Den Maschine, 10/1 Carnival Fair, 25/1 Moscow Mischief, 33/1 Glenfarg Bay, Leo´s Quest, 100/1 Zero Six Zoo.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Leopardstown winner WAVE POWER has a tall reputation and it will be disappointing should he not make it two from two, regardless of what is expected from the newcomers. Saveiro won well at Catterick but may need a good deal more to upset the selection.[AWJ]
8 runners down to 7, 2 horses are 50/1 or bigger – makings of a probability bet? BUT thi is a bumper 1.11 to place
650 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Itshim, 7/2 Sills Vincero, 9/2 Fashion Icon, 13/2 Weet In Nerja, 9/1 Cindy Incidentally, 14/1 Wee Bizzom, 25/1 Badtanman,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ITSHIM (nap) beat his elders in good style on his AW debut at Kempton, leaving the impression there should be more to come from him in this sphere, and William Carson’s 5lb claim partly negates a penalty back against the selection’s own age group. Sills Vincero and Fashion Icon may prove the main dangers.[SB]
ishtim obvious gambled on winner last time ,flagged up here under the market movers, now odds on in a 7 runner race and obviously looking to get a quick double 1.29 to place
920 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Tartan Gunna, 9/2 Captainrisk, 6/1 My Sweet Georgia, 13/2 Grand Honour, 25/1 Meydan Groove.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TARTAN GUNNA, a progressive sort who scored easily in a higher grade at Lingfield last week, looks likely to continue his upward curve and is difficult to oppose turned out under a penalty. Captainrisk may prove best of the remainder.[SB]
5 horse race down to 3 – price gapper remains – now 1/3 anad with 2 places, it only remains to see how he is place only priced with 1 to beat! 1.08 to place
ONE A DAY
Tartan Gunner very obvious in a 3 horse race with 2 to place – best bet of the day probability wise
Red maloney slightly bigger price at 1.13 and a chance perhaps on putting faith in According to Dick at 1.25