Onto today
255 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Scenic Pass, 9/4 Doric Echo, 11/2 Artesium, 9/1 Acclaben, 10/1 Identity, 12/1 Scarlets, 20/1 Drachenfels, 25/1 Peckforton, 50/1 Danderdandan.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Scenic Pass was just picked off in her attempt to complete a hat-trick last time and should make a bold bid to give her trainer a repeat success in this race, but may not be able to confirm latest Hamilton form with DORIC ECHO, who stayed on strongly from an unpromising position in the gruelling ground that day
Possible probability bet today here – 2 non runners thanks to the heavy ground but these are 2 year olds in a nursery – YIKES! 2.56 1.24 win/place
330
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Box Office, 2/1 Liberty Diamond, 9/4 The Kyllachy Kid, 10/1 Aestival, 14/1 Zegna, 33/1 Top Flight Splash, 66/1 Grissom.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOX OFFICE ran very green on his debut and may be able to find the improvement needed to progress past The Kyllachy Kid and Liberty Diamond. Sir Mark Prescott had a 66-1 winner at Wolverhampton last Friday, who had shown little on his debut, so it might be unwise to rule out a big run from Aestival.
Another probability bet here 6 runenrs now – 2 to palce and 1 outsider
BOX OFFICE 3.2 /2
KYLLACHY KID 2.72 /1.56
LIBERTY DIAMOND 5.5 /2.5
Uncompetitive place market – money really isnt making the market work yet so the above prices are cheeky backers putting up unrealistic prices
430 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Timocracy, 9/2 Pediment, 8/1 Air Chief, 17/2 Hawk Flight, 9/1 Colourways, Drum Major, Flying Applause, Sinbad The Sailor, 14/1 Mon Plaisir, 25/1 Hawaana.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TIMOCRACY’s latest second in a Folkestone handicap entitles him to go very well here, especially as his profile suggests he may well come on again. Provided the forecast faster ground doesn’t prove a problem, he may well be able to pick up the winning thread again, possibly at the main expense of Sinbad The Sailor.
Other potential price gappers prior to this race at Goodwood but they dont appeal for me 2.8/1.42
3rd fav Air chief a non runner lessens potential rivals – fav has been placed last 3 times -is this affecting his weight carried in this handicap? Positives – Mark Johnston and Fanning are a reliable combination to have on your side
850 GT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Hula King, 3/1 Free Thinker, 9/2 Alpha Tauri, 7/1 Causeway King, 8/1 Sham Sheer, 10/1 Noordhoek Kid, 20/1 Gtaab, 25/1 Veiled, 33/1 Cooper Island Kid.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hula King will be popular given his connections but FREE THINKER’s credentials are just as good and he may well represent better value. Alpha Tauri and Sham Sheer are interesting newcomers about whom the market will tell more
Alpha Tauri now evens and quite a move – but race doesnt go off til near enough 9pm!
Worth monitoring but this is a maiden with a few debutants 1.96 / 1.24 BUT ILLIQUID MARKET AS HOURS TO GO TO KICK OFF
200 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Alhaque, 8/1 Above Average, Jedi, Prohibition, 10/1 Roman Glory, Shemoli, 14/1 Aspro Mavro, Favours Brave, Strong Storm, 16/1 Kansai Spirit, Redwood, 20/1 Double Rubble, Ruler Of All, 25/1 Galucci, 33/1 Captain Flack, 50/1 Play To Win, Supa Seeker,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of interesting long-term prospects, but ALHAQUE is likely to be wiser than most following his encouraging debut second to North East Corner (runs 3.45) here last month and this step up in trip will suit so is the one to beat.
A real eyecatcher here! Quite a price gap. BUT 18 runner maiden and 10 debtants – again how on earth do we know how they will run? fav based on one run only , live market is required reading to note market movers but the price gap still remains though!2.72 / 1.48
310
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Savarain, 11/4 The Betchworth Kid, 5/1 Fiulin, 7/1 Resplendent Light, 16/1 Silk Affair, 25/1 Syvilla, 33/1 Lough Diver.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Different conditions to when The Betchworth Kid won so well at Doncaster and preference is for SAVARAIN, who has run so well in defeat at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood and should have no problem with today’s longer trip.
One non runner and 2 outsiders mean a possible probability bet with only 4 horses likely to vye for the first 2 places 2.14 / 1.55
345
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Wingwalker, 6/1 Desert Phantom, 7/1 Control Zone, Derbaas, 8/1 North East Corner, 20/1 Ashram, 25/1 Akhenaten, 33/1 Dabbers Chief, 66/1 Prime Delivery.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Four unbeaten colts in opposition but the exciting WINGWALKER is expected to take this step up Group 3 company in his stride. He quickened up smartly once the gap came at Sandown and a line through runner-up Rileyskeepingfaith suggests he should have the measure of Desert Phantom.[
2 non runners -one is the 2nbd fav should make life easier for fav to place – 2 horses at 40/1 make life easier from a place only perspective 1.64 / 1.18
COMPOUNDING
Start with a nominal £1000 bank and look to win 3/4% per day (3 quarters%)
DAY 1 Target £7.50 STAKE £158 SUCCESS
OR 2% compounding with a £100 bank
DAY 1 Target £2 STAKE £43 at 1.05 SUCCESS
If using Graycliffe – note palce back odds went out to 3.4 so I didn’t bet but hypothetically at the 1.97 mentioned previously
DAY 1 Target =£7.50 STAKES £8.20 LOSS
DAY 1 Target = £2 STAKES £2.20 LOSS
BET 2 LOSS RETREIVAL on STEVIE JUNIOR at 1.13
DAY 1 Target = £7.50 +£8.20 = £15.70 STAKES £128 SUCCESS
DAY 1 Target = £2 + £2.20 = £4.20 STAKES £33 SUCCESS
This is how the compounding experiement would have looked yesterday if Graycliffe was used at odds mentioned (despite the fact those odds went out to 3.4 and he would not have been a selection)
SHORTLIST
WINGWALKER – 1.18
ALHAQUE 1.48 – I only include here cos the price is big relative to the above and the price gap is noticeable
KYLLACHY KID -1.56 OR MARKET LEADER IN BOOKMAKERS MARKET PRIOR TO RACE – purely a probability bet and , again, the odds are very enticing
COMPOUNDING
bank £1007.50 (£1000 bank at 3/4% per day)
bank £102 (£100 bank at 2% per day)
TARGET PROFIT TODAY £7.56
TARGET PROFIT TODAY 2% £100 BANK £2.04
Yes I’ve had a knock on the head, and despite MAster Rooney and Imaam unplaced, I’ll wade in with Alhaque at 1.48 -but would probably go with Wingwalker if being strict
DAY 2 Target £7.56 STAKE £15.80 @ 1.48
OR 2% compounding with a £100 bank
DAY 2 Target £2.04 STAKE £4.30 at 1.48