Northern Empire the right choice yesterday. Michel Le Bon won as expected, but 5151 was poor – I had a niggle that the last run at 40/1 may have been an anomoly
Market movers – highlights Brer Ber win at 14/1, and 2 races with 2nd and 3rd places.
Pat Smullen had a great evening at Dundalk and a level stakes profit was made with winners at 5/1, 11/2, and 3/1 the standouts

Early start today and I’ve noticed that market movers do not really work on Saturdays so just the place only for me today although I’ll note any significant movers

215 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Dee Cee Elle, 5/1 Peaceful Means, 11/2 Lilac, 9/1 Santera, 10/1 Villochely, 12/1 Backlash,  Sherbet Lemon, 16/1 Culbann, 20/1 La Donna Del Largo, 33/1 Quoquille Des Sacart,  Tarantula, 50/1 Globe Trekker,  Star Berry, 66/1 Goldvelle,  Hill Of Clare, 100/1 Ricci De Mare.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Few with a realistic chance and DEE CEE ELL has sound prospects of following up her Ludlow win. Santera has place claims.[FC]

Price gapper in a claiming hurdle 1.49 to place but an illiqid market

225 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Deep Squeeze, 5/2 Boo, 7/1 The Accordionist, 10/1 Royal Premier,  Zelos, 14/1 Ere Alfie, 20/1 Look Up,  Saint Espiegle, 33/1 Just Another Joker,  Sargentos.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bumper winner DEEP SQUEEZE finished ahead of likely danger Boo when third here recently and, with more to offer, he could well cash in on what looks his easiest task as a hurdler to date.[BDO]

Only 3 under double figures and a fav now 11/10 1.23 and 1.5 the front 2

245 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 The Panama Kid, 5/2 Calusa Crystal, 3/1 Alderley Rover, 7/2 Frontier Dancer, 16/1 Mr Bond,  Tigger, 66/1 Tachbury,  What´s Occurrin, 100/1 Westwire Toby, 150/1 Bernshaw,  Perryston Prince.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Possible to make a case for any of the top four, even if Frontier Dancer and Calusa Crystal didn’t show their best last time. THE PANAMA KID ran well against a talented if questionable yardstick last time and earns the vote, though Alderley Rover has scope for improvement when his jumping improves.[EMW]

Only 4 under 16/1     1.4 , 1.52, 1.72 , 1.46  the front 4 to place

320 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 That´s Rhythm, 2/1 Osolomio, 9/4 Calusa Caldera, 25/1 Caramia, 66/1 Baker´s Girl.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The ratings point to THAT’S RHYTHM who, unlike his principal rivals Calusa Caldera and Osolomio, is proven over 3m.[FC]

3 horse race really vying for 2 places and a fav who looks solid. 3 miles, though, is a long way and the pricing of the front 3 means the betting forecaster can’t really split them 1.31 , 1.77, 1.7 the front 3

345 HAYDOCK

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Prince Taime, 11/2 Be Brief, 13/2 Theatre Diva, 7/1 Coq Hardi, 9/1 Flake,  Nevertika, 10/1 Mister McGoldrick, 14/1 Otage De Brion,  Rightway Star, 25/1 Federstar, 50/1 Cybergenic, 66/1 Oniz Tiptoes.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRINCE TAIME (nap) used to be too buzzy for this trip but his solid efforts in Listed handicaps this season have suggested he must now be worth a try at further and, with his stable in such good form this week and a capable claimer on board, he makes most appeal. There are other interesting contenders, including the lightly weighted novice Be Brief who has a good C&D effort to his name behind the selection’s stablemate Tarablaze.[PJ]

Price gapper but a claimer on board 1.5 to place

405 NEWBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Riverside Theatre, 4/1 Astrodome, 5/1 Marc Aurele, 7/1 Super Directa, 20/1 Russian Epic, 33/1 Barathea Blazer, 40/1 Roscrea,  Wandering Minstral.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Marc Aurele may have come on a lot since his hurdling debut and Astrodome was a promising winner last time, but RIVERSIDE THEATRE should prove hard to beat.[RA]

The straight 8 and Geraghty on the fav – looks like 4 outsiders so a good probability bet 1.07 to place – I was expecting bigger

420 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Zemsky, 13/8 Moscow Catch, 8/1 Magellan Straits,  Western Whisky, 20/1 Danny Zuko,  Istron Bay, 40/1 Right You Are, 50/1 Borderhopper, 66/1 Briery Star, 200/1 Ballysimon.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Moscow Catch gave a good horse a run for his money over this C&D in January but slight preference is for ZEMSKY, who readily turned over an odds-on previous winner at Plumpton on his debut for Nicky Henderson and is just the type to thrive over these obstacles.[PJ]

Like 5151 and Fistral Beach – 2 at the head of the market ( one of which did not place) – another similar race here. McCoy on Zemsky – he rarely lets us down on fancied horses. Both market leaders have consistent placed form 1.19 both the front 2 to place

435 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Paradise Expected, 9/2 Bali Bay, 11/2 Prophete De Guye, 7/1 Great Tsar,  Jackella, 20/1 Maree Hall,  Peterfly, 25/1 A Few Kind Words.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This better ground may well help Paradise Expected but it was disappointing she couldn’t win an ordinary event at Market Rasen recently and preference is for BALI BAY, who ran well for a long way back from a break at Huntingdon last time and has scope for improvement as a chaser.[EMW]

Another price gapper with proven placed form, eased a bit to 6/4 in the live market and 2 mile 7 is a long way 1.43 to place  – illiquid market

530 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Peveril, 7/1 Purrfect Hero, 8/1 Last Of The Bunch,  M´Lord Bishop, 12/1 Presenting Jet, 14/1 Mister Wall Street,  Simply Wings, 20/1 Sir Mark, 33/1 Bilbo Boggart,  Patriot,  Russian Music, 40/1 Pericam, 50/1 Minstalad.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Heaven knows what price PEVERIL will start if Tony McCoy has enjoyed a field day, but the Henderson representative is preferred to Last Of The Bunch, who could improve plenty for better ground, and interesting newcomer Purrfect Hero, who must be monitored for market confidence.[PJ]

Big price gapper here with McCoy on board – 6 debutants in this bumper means a degree of caution but Peveril has run ( I think I place backed it !) and the price gap looks telling – 1.12 to place – market mot fully formed

EYE CATCHING MARKET MOVERS

215 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Dee Cee Elle, 5/1 Peaceful Means, 11/2 Lilac, 9/1 Santera, 10/1 Villochely, 12/1 Backlash,  Sherbet Lemon, 16/1 Culbann, 20/1 La Donna Del Largo, 33/1 Quoquille Des Sacart,  Tarantula, 50/1 Globe Trekker,  Star Berry, 66/1 Goldvelle,  Hill Of Clare, 100/1 Ricci De Mare.

Sherbert Lemon (7/1 ) and Villochely 11/2 in one bookies

235 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Damien, 5/2 Elnawin, 5/1 Nashmiah, 10/1 Doncaster Rover, 14/1 Five Star Junior, 20/1 Icesolator,  Qalahari,  Silver Games,  Son Of The Cat, 25/1 Smokey Ryder,  Tobond, 33/1 Joe Caster, 50/1 Red Kyte, 66/1 Gone Hunting.
Five star junior 8/1 with BEtfred Iceolator 14/1

315 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Wot Way Chief, 7/2 Brave Rebellion, 4/1 Daldini, 6/1 Saunders Road, 8/1 Oneway, 10/1 Saphir Des Bois, 12/1 Palarshan, 14/1 Crozan, 20/1 Ela Re, 33/1 Robin De Sherwood.
Crozan 7/1

400 STRATFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 What Happened, 4/1 Quiny Boy, 13/2 Oscar Trial, 7/1 Novarra, 12/1 Terminate, 14/1 Amazing Request,  Bolton Hall,  Phamtom Du Lac, 16/1 Bid Art, 20/1 Young Yozza, 25/1 Heebie Jeebie,  Present, 33/1 Slickdalay, 50/1 Delightful Touch,  Pasqualina Mia,  Tudor Buck, 100/1 Little Hotpotch.

Heebee Jeebie 14/1

430 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 I´m The Decider, 9/2 Georgian King, 11/2 Snake Charmer, 6/1 Harmony Brig, 8/1 Freeze The Flame, 10/1 Great Approach, 12/1 Distiller, 14/1 Rathcor, 20/1 Laertes, 25/1 Ice Tea, 40/1 Share Option, 50/1 Kelami.
Ice tea 16/1 in places

435 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Paradise Expected, 9/2 Bali Bay, 11/2 Prophete De Guye, 7/1 Great Tsar,  Jackella, 20/1 Maree Hall,  Peterfly, 25/1 A Few Kind Words.
A few is 14/1 with 3 bookies BUT 25/1 with others still

510 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sure Josie Sure, 11/4 Daaloob, 13/2 Viking Blond, 8/1 Nehemiah, 12/1 Extreme Conviction,  Robo, 16/1 Sammy Two Shoes, 25/1 Bangor Mill, 33/1 Silent Affair,  Silver Ash, 100/1 Wild Bury.
Bangor Mill 8/1

540 BANGOR

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wymott, 4/1 Glebehall Bay,  Paddy The Pirate, 15/2 Nick The Dreamer, 12/1 Holy Balloney,  Honourable Arthur, 16/1 Kaycee,  Voramar Two.
2nd Fav a non runnerbut  Honorable Arthur has gone to 5/2 2nd fav!

PLACE ONLY SHORTLISTERS
215 BANGOR – I’ll try to salvage something here. 16 runners. 4 at 100/1, 3 at 50/1 or bigger. That’s 16 runners down to 9, with 3 to place
A head winner last time ( and gambled on – I remember it), my attention is drawn to the place only price which is a little big for a 7/4 strong fav ( but this is probably because of the number of runners and the fact it’s a claiming hurdle)

225 STRATFORD
Deep Squeeze is at an appetising 1.24 to place in a 10 runner field – 3 are 33/1 or bigger which can hopefully be discounted, 2 25/1 and one 14/1. 4 are left under 14/1 and Deep Squeeze has hardened into 11/10 at time of writing

320 BANGOR – a 5 horse race, one at 66/1 and one at 25/1 can hopefully be discounted. That’s Rhythm now 8/11 and surely has just one to beat to place? Not out since the 30th October might sound a note of caution but the 1.31 currently on offer looks appetising if looked at from a probability perspective

405 NEWBURY – Riverside Theatre I had down as my one of the day – an early 1.07 when I first looked is now 1.1 to place 4th fav a non runner but still 3 places, 2 horses at 66/1 leave 5 for 3 places (2 of the others at 16/1 or bigger) Looks a great probability bet

420 HAYDOCK – a look at the live market and 4 of the 9 runners are 66/1 or bigger, one 33/1 and one 10/1 leaving 3 under double figure odds. Zemsky has McCoy on board and Moscow Catch has Phil Kinsella and I can’t split them. My concern is that this could be another 5151 and Fistral Beach, with one of the 2 not placing.  Opt for the favourite at the off? Preference always for McCoy though personally in another probability race

530 HAYDOCK – Peveril gambled on last time out – McCoy on board – negatives – bumper with a number of debutants who could be anything. This one has experience (albeit just the one run under rules) but the price gap is certainly eyecatching

ONE A DAY

Riverside Theatre looks standout today but the 1.1 reflects this decent probability bet

Deep Sqeeze and That’s Rythmn appeal at the bigger prices.