Milne Bay was a great disappointment, or should I say Jimmy Quinn was a great disappointment – what a poor ride. Quince, in the earlier race placed for the gamblers, as did the Kempton picks – my instincts were right, they were “cleaner” place bets. So, again, saved by an earlier race than Milne Bay’s as Quince managed 2nd in a text book probability race
HEavy ground at Alaistair McGowran Park and at Dionne Warwick mean I am loathe to venture there , BUT Topless returns in the 140 – a horse costing Dave Nevison £200,000 and losing some punters hundreds of thousands as he junked a few yards from the line – interesting Choc Thornton is on
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Ring The Boss, 5/2 Oh Crick, 11/2 The Vicar, 14/1 Freddies Return, 33/1 Kinkeel.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Assuming he will jump more efficiently this time and reproduce his best form, RING THE BOSS looks the one to beat. Oh Crick still has a bit to prove regarding the trip/ground, though should be the main danger if he copes, with The Vicar having something to find despite receiving weight but no concerns with the conditions.[
2 perceived outsiders – Hobbs horse rav and Thornton/King 2nd 1.38 amd 1.6 to place for these
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Desert Bump, 11/4 Twenty Score, 4/1 Air Maze, 12/1 Crown Affair, Sampower Shamrock, 20/1 Singapore Girl, 25/1 Jaq´s Sister, 33/1 Buail Isteach, Happy And Glorious, Listen Carefully, Miss Sampower, Sampower Sarge.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DESERT BUMP is selected now up at a trip that should suit her better than 5f on breeding and can get the better of Twenty Score in a weak event.Air Maze has to be respected given her connections despite a pedigree that suggests she will do better over further, and any market support would be significant
Interesting 3 under 12/1 here but it is a big field maiden fillies event 1.17 to place
355 NAD AL SHEEBA
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Asset, 6/1 Drift Ice, 7/1 Conquest, Contest, Golden Riviera, 10/1 Leandros, 14/1 Buachaill Dona, Miss Gorica, Munaddam, 20/1 Easy Target, 25/1 Remarque, 33/1 Flying Blue,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A decent gallop on the cards and this should be run to suit Godolphin’s ASSET, who figures on a handy mark for this UAE debut and who shaped better than the bare form on only his second run for the yard at Great Leighs. This intermediate distance looks ideal and he’s fancied to get the better of Mubarak Bin Shafya’s Conquest, who wasn’t seen to best effect on his dirt and UAE debut last time.[
Godolphin horse under Frankie -hint of a price gap, but these are decent horses in opposition 1.77 to place – illiquid market
425 NAD AL SHEEBA
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Biarritz, Calming Influence, Jay Peg, 7/1 Bertranicus, Gladiatorus, 14/1 Tasdeer, 16/1 Montpellier, 25/1 Bruges, Jack Junior.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A fascinating event that sees the reappearance of last year’s Dubai Duty Free winner Jay Peg. However Herman Brown has stated that he’ll definitely come on a fair bit for this reappearance run so the two to concentrate on are CALMING INFLUENCE and Biarritz. Slight preference is for the former, who has won first time up on both his previous seasons and is lightly raced enough to be open to further improvement.[
Big move for Calming Influence here 1.32 to place in an illiquid market
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Presvis, 7/1 Drill Sergeant, 10/1 Al Shemali, Basaltico, Via Galilei, 14/1 Meydan City, Military Power, Varsity, Yaddree, 20/1 Dr Faustus, Munsef, Royal Prince, 25/1 Fenice, Grand Hombre, Great Plains, 33/1 Before You Go,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Progressive performers are always of interest in this type of event and, in a race comprising mainly exposed sorts, the one to be on is PRESVIS. Luca Cumani’s 5yo, who has only had seven starts, spreadeagled a competitive field at Newbury in autumn and, although raised 14lb, is almost certainly capable of better. At bigger odds Military Power is better than he showed last time and is worth a small each-way interest.[RY
A price gapper reflected in the live market, Presvis must be of interest although again these are top quality horses
1.39 to place in an illiquid market
ONE A DAY
I have generally avoided Warcick and Gowran given the heavy ground
425 and 455 NAD interest me ,especially the move for Calming Influence. I will operate on an in running basis today so may hit my target earlier than these races in a very unappetising day . Looks at the 425 and 455 markets nearer the off will confirm choice but as things stand the move for Calming Influence may be telling.