Usual hectic Easter card, and the start of the flat proper in the UK
CARLISLE – SOFT
235
Out of interest, Benboech is the handicap top weight here by 5 lbs and more in a system I am monitoring for qualifying lays priced 4.00 or lower on Betfair. Results from year start are great to level stakes for qualifiers priced 4.00 or lower.
In a tight betting market, 11/4, 4/1 (Benboech), 4/1 and 13/2 it’s quite obvious the horse has a chance but from a layer’s perspective he has similarly priced rivals. This is a long term system with promise so i won’t be overtly concerned if he wins. Dickie Lewis has won 3 on the trot and may qualify as a multiple handicapper worth taking on?
415
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Toy Gun, 3/1 Mrs O´Malley, 4/1 Radnor Lad, Scrappie, 14/1 Royal Mackintosh, 20/1 Windygate, 25/1 Salveo, Young Yozza, 50/1 Kalic D´Alm
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RADNOR LAD, who was a fine third on his first run over fences at Huntingdon only to disappoint last time, has conditions to suit and is taken to bounce back to form by beating course winner Mrs O’Malley and Toy Gun, who won so well over hurdles at Ayr when last seen out in January.[CR]
A 4 horse race? Soft ground is the concern. 3 miles on soft can open us up to a surprise. I will chance a dutch which breaks even on Toy Gun – odds of 2.82, 5.5, 6.4, 6.8 and stakes of 17,10,10,10 leaves the break even I want on Toy Gun
525
The Bajan Bandit ,at 2/9 won as expected last time out, and current 2.18 means I think I will lay him today. The concern is there are only 2 real rivals and if one of them should fall, we’re in trouble
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 The Bajan Bandit, 15/8 Grattan Lodge, 6/1 A Boy Named Sioux, 10/1 Harlov, 16/1 Eva So Charming, Rose Of The Hill, 50/1 Per Amore .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Bajan Bandit has won two from two in hunter chases this term, but had to struggle in the bad ground at Ayr on his latest start. Although an obvious contender, slight perference is for GRATTAN LODGE, who lost his way last season but has a fine record here and gets plenty of weight from his main riva
Grattan Lodge and A boy named Sioux, and stretching it a bit to Harlov look the only ones running for us.
DONCASTER
Soft / Good to soft
First turf flat meeting and we have a nice 21 runner 5 furrlong cavalry charge as the curtain riser.
All 2 year olds and the market should have a bearing for anyone interested. All debutants so it’s call your gran, get the pin out and hope!
SImply a leave alone card for me today this one. For those looking for an angle in, with the shorter distances, check out POSTDATA which will give you an idea of the draw which has a great impact on flat turf races.
HAYDOCK
300
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Blackpool Billy, 6/1 Borero, 7/1 Pagano, 9/1 Bremen, 11/1 Plein Pouvoir, 12/1 Cruchain, Hopkins, Lease Lend, 14/1 Bobby Bullock, Leac An Scail, Spare Me, 16/1 Innominate, Jass, 20/1 Double Shot, Silver By Nature, 33/1 Prelude D´Estruval .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BLACKPOOL BILLY (nap) could have crept in under the handicapper’s radar and he makes most appeal. His owner, Trevor Hemmings, who loves to have winners on this track, has two other entrants with chances in Spare Me and Hopkins but most danger may come from unexposed Plein Pouvoir and ex-French Borero.
Ahead of the handicapper? Blackpool Billy each way just in case!
445 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Sea Cadet, 4/1 Nevada Red, Tomillielou, 11/2 Young Smokey, 7/1 Phareight Dei, 8/1 Jacarado, 14/1 Change Agent, 16/1 Black Smoke, 20/1 Nobel Bleu De Kerpaul .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of these is particularly reliable but NEVADA RED is more trustworthy than most and stays well so he’s the tentative choice to bounce back from a disappointing latest effort. Tomillielou and Sea Cadet may give him most to do
Nevada Red is another top weight with a 9lbs difference to the next horse- currently 5.9 to lay and outside the ideal price.
315 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Cordell, 9/2 Admiral Dundas, Atabaas Pride, 7/1 Formation, 10/1 Vettorenjoy, 12/1 Hansinger, Hucking Hero, Moment´s Notice, 14/1 Averoo, 16/1 Jollyhockeysticks, Lady Sorcerer, 25/1 Monashee Rock, 33/1 Ocean Transit .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A typically difficult 3yo handicap to solve. Admiral Dundas and Vettorenjoy are both lightly raced potential improvers, while Cordell ran well in what looked a good event here last weekend. Mark Johnston has a plethora of talented 3yos at his disposal though and ATABAAS PRIDE can improve for this step up in trip and take advantage of what looks a handy mar
Cordell has a 5lb gap to the next horse in this handicap – another possible lay. Sod’s law will probably come into play today of course and all of these will win by 10 lengths – you have been warned!
350
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Thebes, 7/1 Van Bossed, 8/1 Southwest Star, 10/1 Wigram´s Turn, 14/1 Asian Power, 16/1 Artistic License, 20/1 Sofia´s Star, 25/1 Ike Quebec .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some interesting sprinters for the coming weeks here, notably Wigram’s Turn and Van Bossed, but THEBES looked miles ahead of the handicapper at Wolverhampton in the week and he should be able to follow up under his penalt
Price gapper – “miles ahead of the handicapper” – price gap jumps off the page – is repeated in the early price market.
14/14 tips – top RPR, -top topspeed – postdata selection – worth siding with
425
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Malt Or Mash, 7/4 Millville, 6/1 Miramare, 20/1 Murfreesboro, St Savarin, 25/1 Kames Park .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Millville is a reliable performer on the AW and he looks sure to go well in his bid for Listed-race glory, but MALT OR MASH looked a Group horse in waiting when winning the November Handicap and this looks a perfect stepping stone to bigger challenges in the coming months
Malt or Mash “looked a group horse in the waiting” – worth backing based on this? A 3 horse race at a stretch – Ryan Moore in the plate. I don’t normally like backing singularly in potential 2 horse races but will make an exception here putting my faith in Spotlight.
650 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Decider, 9/4 Dodaa, 6/1 Town House, 7/1 Blackheath, 10/1 Bentley, 16/1 Perlachy, 25/1 Lithaam .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Thriving trailblazers DODAA and Decider can dominate this from the off and, at the weights, the former might well come out on top.[BDO]
Decider 11 lbs more weight than the next and layable (for the system at least)
820
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Two Left Feet, 11/4 House Of Lords, 5/1 Inontime, 8/1 Themwerethedays, 12/1 Speyside, 16/1 Lawton, 20/1 Kijivu .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A suitable opportunity for TWO LEFT FEET, who’s been shaping with considerable promise in stronger AW maidens, to make it third time lucky.[BDO]
Two left feet worth backing as long as House of Lords does not come in for significant support – a maiden debutant with Jamie Spencer in the plate, the money may be significant
850
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Underworld, 11/2 Fathsta, 7/1 Bookish, Desert Clover, 10/1 Ballycroy Boy, 12/1 Nawaaff, 14/1 Monsieur Reynard, Ten Pole Tudor .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: UNDERWORLD (nap) shaped like a useful recruit at Lingfield last month and, with any amount of improvement in the offing, he might well follow up off a realistic mark. The more experienced Fathsta can book second over a proven C&D
Another price gapper? – early market 4/5 – – – 6/1 – good price gap – napped by Spotlight (kiss of death) – 14/14 tips – top RPR – top topspeed – postdata selection.
NEGATIVES – first run in handicap company after single run in class 5 maiden race (which he won) – is the handicap mark lenient enough to allow for a follow up win?
3 into 1
255 NA Misbehaviour
305 Carlisle Flying falcon
350 Kempton Thebes
650 Wolves Decider
820 Wolves Two left feet
850 Wolves Underworld
FOOTY
Roma/Roma half time/full time at 1.82 looks worthy of an interest in enhancing the 1/5 odds.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.81 is an alternative to the half time/full time for a Roma team firing at home against an Empoli side which concedes all too often.
Villa v Sunderland is likely to be a tough fought match for an improving Sunderland who fight hard but have a poor away record. Against all bar the top 4 they have kept it tight awat from home.
I’m going to chance correct score dutching 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-0, 2-1 – big wins on 0-1, 1-2 shock wins and break evens on 0-0. THis time of the season can instil a greater fighting spirit with the relegation threatened sides
I’ll be laying Boro at 4/9 against Derby today who may have had a huge confidence boost from their performance against Man united .4/9 as a layer is of no great concern liability wise against a Boro side which blows hot and cold.
I will probably limit myself to 3-4 bets throughout the horses and football today as this is usually bookies benefit day.