Close shave with Schiehallion who, judging by the prices, was bang in there , and traded as low as 1.4. I could have greened up but was aware that if he placed, it was pretty much break even.
Noland and My Petra came 1st and 2nd – evens about a 1.26 shot – like the football – if there’s a way to enhance the odds we should take them and let’s face it, this wasn’t rocket science was it in a 5 runner race with 3 at double figure odds?
Soba Jones and Nautical fought it out, and I thought Nautical had it, given he traded low,but eventually it was a break even as Soba Jones got up.
Hope Road stayed at 9/1 but was badly hampered – wasn’t his day yesterday.
All bar FAbulous Jet (recent winner) and Kibitzer (maiden race with debutants but traded at 1.26 in running) win for the 3 into 1 system to make it 14 from the last 17 winners
Le HAvre and Swansea both won for the nice mug punter acca.
Typically busy Saturday and I always get drawn into making a lot of bets ( justwhat the bookies want!) so let’s be cautious today
CHEPSTOW
250 is an interesting race but it’s a big field and a beginners chase. HAs the feel of a quantity over quality race. With the Sawyer and Flying Falcon at 11/4 and 7/2, those so inclined could dutch these 2. As I say there will be easier opportunities but I’m taken by Spotlight’s positivity and the prices of the other horses
The rest of the card includes a lot of big fields.
FAIRYHOUSE
450
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Snowy Morning, 7/2 One Cool Cookie, 7/1 Arteea, 8/1 Afistfullofdollars, 10/1 Vic Venturi, 12/1 Hedgehunter, 20/1 Jack High, 150/1 Ardlea Star.
The striaght 8 here and the mighty HEdgehunter runs again but it may be worth chancing ante-post GRand NAtional favourite Snowy Morning to consolidate why he is. One Cool Cookie will be an ideal each way candidate for those averse to short prices over 3 mile events
KEMPTON
A card of quality does not necessarily translate to a card of betting opportunities.
240
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Hobbs Hill, 5/1 Lead On, 11/2 Oslot, 8/1 Pur De Sivola, 10/1 Pancake .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HOBBS HILL sets a very high standard on the form shown when winning Grade 2 novices on his last two starts and with this trip, the forecast ground and his hitherto very sound jumping all in his favour, he is a confident choice to make it five out of five over fences. Oslot may be next best. [MCu]
The fact this is aa scoop 6 race should translate that perhaps it’s not as straightforward as the prices indicate, but I’ll stick with Hobbs Hill here given Spotlight’s confidence, and the fact the horse ticks all the boxes re the 3 into 1 system. You’ll see this ain’t no cakewalk by looking at the form – a lot of 1’s spread through out
350
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Binocular, 11/4 Pierrot Lunaire, 7/1 Furmigadelagiusta, 8/1 Doubly Guest, Zanir, 12/1 Troque, 20/1 Mud Monkey, 40/1 Regional Counsel, Special Day, 50/1 L´Homme De Nuit, 200/1 Coppergirl .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BINOCULAR (nap) was stylish first time out over hurdles and can justify his very prominent position in the Triumph Hurdle betting by winning here as well. Pierrot Lunaire and Furmigadelagiusta are feared most, given that the selection’s stablemate Doubly Guest blotted her copybook last Saturday
Will there be more singing on the streets of Killarney as I rea another juvenile novice’s hurdle right?
I’ll chance a dutch on Binocular and pierrot Lunaire for Nicholls/Walsh and Henderson/Fitzgerald
Caution advised at any Scoop 6 venue so bear that in mind!
LINGFIELD
415
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Dansant, 5/1 Grand Passion, 6/1 Dubai´s Touch, 8/1 Fajr, Sri Diamond, 12/1 Capricorn Run, 16/1 Baylini, Voliere, 20/1 Troubadour, Yarqus, 25/1 Dream Lodge, 50/1 Smokey The Bear, 66/1 Basra .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GRAND PASSION, winner of this race in 2004 and 2006, has a bit to find with a few on BHA figures under his penalty, notably Dansant, but at the very least looks a low-risk each-way play against the favourit
A price gapper in a class 1 race should always be factored in. Being a class 1 ,this isn’t a banded stakes dodge pot race-v the opposition are handy.
Jamie Spencer is on board Dansant .Preference for place only although odds will be skinny
3 INTO 1 SYSTEM
150 Newcastle Unowatameen
240 Kempton Hobbs Hill
FOOTY
A return to the winner’s enclosure for mug punters yesterday as the acca scraped in.
1245 sees Birmingham face the Arse at home and this is no gimme for the gunners.
The most recent result we can guage Brum by is their loss 1-0 to Chelsea at home and I expect another tight contest with a defensive Brum set up of 4-5-1 against top 4 sides.
Under 2.5 goals as a trade looks worthy of following today to get out after a decent perfiod (20 mins or so) if it remains 0-0.
Last 4 results for Liverpool v Boro read draw at Boro, win at Anfield, Draw at Boro, win at Anfield. Any chance of this sequence being broken ? 4/9 from the bookies suggests not.
I wouldn’t read too much into the result mid week against 10 men -a lucky deflection for the first as well.
With the knowledge of the sequence and the fact, personaally, I can’t see Boro winning, I will chance the half time/full time dutch on
Liverpool/Liverpool at 2.2
Draw/Liverpool at 4.6
Draw/Draw at 7.6
to the following staking ratios of £13 , £10, £7 -slight loss on Liverpool/Liverpool
Only one game to go on re head to heads for Derby v Wigan, and I would suspect this nerve jangling affair ( for the Wigan boys – Derby are down) will translate into few goals nad a tight game. Trading under 2.5 goals
We can dutch the correct score of 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1 as the shortest price is 6.8 for the Wigan 1-0 we can level stake the rest. This may be an over complicated bet for a Saturday but I don’t see Derby getting 2 or Wigan getting 3.
515 sees me speak those immortal words ” I would LOVE it if we beat them, just love it” as King Kev meets his psychological tormentor of campaigns gone by at St James Park.
How on earth are Newcastle going to score? I hear Shearer is still fit. But what angle in?
Man Utd are 1.51 in the match odds market which is reasonable.
halftime/Fulltime is interesting with Man Utd/Man Utd , Draw/ man Utd and Draw/Draw all dutchable (slight loss on Man Utd/Man Utd)
Christiano Ronaldo at 2.36 and Rooney at 2.54 can both be backed. Slight profit if 1 scores – bonanza if they both score.
MUG PUNTER ACCA
1 Birmingham v Arsenal (Laying Birmingham @ 9.47)
2 Wigan v Derby (Laying Derby @ 8.63)
3 Newcastle v Man Utd (Laying Newcastle @ 10.58)
4 Lyon v Metz (Backing Lyon @ 1.21)
5 Porto v Pacos Ferreira (Backing Porto @ 1.19)
5-Folds
Selections Odds* Stake Potential win
1,2,3,4 and 5 2.01 £100.00 £101.00
i’m trying for another evens today and leaving Liverpool out of calculations
Draws could be likely at brum, Derby and NEwcastle and my bankers are Lyon at home and Porto at home. A reasonable price but some difficult fixtures – the Derby match could go either way and Brum will be no push over