Strong coffee’s race – with Wichita lineman and Hopkins out Strong coffee, in a 4 runner race paying 3 the place was a steal at 1.11 to place. 1.45 for the win was decent enough too considering 2 of the remaining opponents were originally quoted at 100/1 – a superb example of a probability bet there
Fitz Flyer 3rd for the other place – again emphasises the advantages we have in the place market – this horse should really have won but as long as he placed that was good enough for me
335 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Headline Act, 5/2 Takeover Bid, 5/1 Block Party, 8/1 Gitano Hernando, 12/1 Double Rubble, Rockfella, 14/1 Sairaam, 33/1 Carita Mia, Killmarnock.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Headline Act sets the standard and should be on the premises once more, but there were plenty of positives to be taken from TAKEOVER BID’s debut effort in what looked a strong race and he can find the necessary improvement with that run under his belt.
2 market leaders look good – Headline act 3rd and 2nd so positives there for place only backers – concerns? good to soft always threatens to turn soft – a lot of one time out performers open to improvement 2.22 / 1.19
240 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Astarador, 9/2 Lease Lend, 5/1 Palomar, 6/1 Crocodiles Rock, 10/1 Torkinking, 11/1 Cash Man, Raysrock, 14/1 The Shy Man, 16/1 Smart Street, 25/1 Storm Prospect, 100/1 Pendle Forest, Uncle Michael.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ASTARADOR may be able to make his previous chasing experience count but this is a much sterner test than he faced on this month’s chasing debut when his stylish win produced 16-1 quotes for the Arkle. Lease Lend, Palomar and Crocodiles Rock are all very interesting newcomers to chasing and that great little streetfighter Torkinking can never be ruled out when the mud is flying.
Soft ground the concern here – still nice price gap BUT biggish field and “novices”! 2.48 / 1.37
415
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Tot O´Whiskey, 9/2 Mistanoora, Nine De Sivola, 6/1 Mr Barnacle, 8/1 Harry Wood, Hockenheim, 12/1 Gritti Palace, 25/1 Sacred Mountain, 200/1 Moyne Pleasure.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nine De Sivola is the clear form on his form of two seasons back and the market will reveal what’s expected on his return from a long absence. TOT O’WHISKEY is one of the obvious alternatives, having shaped as though ready for another crack at this trip when a promising second here on his chasing debut.
A MArtin Blakey bet last time, Tot O Whisky was finishing like a train but all too late to nab a victory
Sacred Mountain at 16/1 – is this a 16/1 system bet? 2.72 / 1.50
720 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Majuba, 3/1 Rublevka Star, 5/1 Bees River, 13/2 Albaseet, 8/1 Piste, Rare Art, 16/1 Fortune In Faith, 20/1 Liteup My World, 25/1 Chosen Son, 33/1 La Capriosa, 50/1 Brown Lentic, Fitz.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Majuba sets a decent standard here despite his string of defeats, but RUBLEVKA STAR travelled well for a long way on her debut and might be able to improve past him.
Albaseet is a non runner – potential probability race here with 5 horses sub 16/1 – will the race rest between these 5?
5 furlong 2 year old maiden race with Rublevka Star a market mover into favouratism BUT note the race start time – we must consult the market nearer the off 2.7 / 1.33 ( market not fully formed at 11am)
820
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Silk Hall, 8/1 Eventide, Kritzia, 9/1 Bushy Dell, 10/1 Lady Sorcerer, 12/1 China Pink, Drum Major, My Mate Max, 14/1 Blue Citadel, Ragamuffin Man, 16/1 Trenchant, 20/1 Testimonial, 33/1 Force Tradition,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a much tougher race than the one SILK HALL won at Wolverhampton last time, but he still looks well in under his penalty, 8lb lower than when his revised mark kicks in on Saturday. Eventide travelled well last time and might be the best alternative.
Eyecatching price gap here and these gaps tend to perform – currently 2/1 -a slight drift – again note the race time! 3.05 / 1.34
220 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Balzaccio, 2/1 Resounding Glory, 4/1 Elbistan, 14/1 Sparkling Montjeu, 20/1 Coole Dodger, Solar Max, 25/1 Gold Rock, 33/1 Bid Art, Sonate De La Tour, 66/1 Gainsborough´s Art, Malt Empress.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Elbistan is the pick of those with hurdling experience but he comes with risks and it’s not hard to chance a newcomer, with RESOUNDING GLORY and Balzaccio the standout contenders. The latter has reportedly schooled well but Richard Fahey’s inmate is a little more battle-hardened off the Flat and, a rare runner for the yard here, is narrowly preferred
Faith in the market here with a lot of debutants in this juvenile novices hurdle. King/Thornton on the market leader and Thornton has been in great form of late and is always a confident contender on a market leader despite the fact we know nothing of the horse’s abilities in this sphere.Resounding glory is the other the market tells us should be involved
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530
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Charles Street, 4/1 Alkar, 6/1 Potemkin, 7/1 Max Bygraves, 10/1 Fair Shake, 12/1 Ptibaby, 14/1 Diktatorship, 20/1 L´Eau Du Nil, Still Dreaming, 25/1 Kerasoun, 50/1 Raydan.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHARLES STREET seemed to take very little out of himself at Fontwell last weekend and can follow up, perhaps at the expense of Alkar and Ptibaby.
Now 11/10 which is always good to see – some early market confidence
2.04 / 1.27
350 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 The Fist Of God, 6/1 King Of Queens, 8/1 Jokipur, 10/1 Mullagh Abu, 12/1 Monkhair, 14/1 Little Miss Diva, Thewritinonthewall, 16/1 Geestring, Lost In France, The Hamptons, 20/1 Brandyandginger, Grand Fella, Patriot Jack, 25/1 Libertys Day, Mr Antolini, Shewillsing, 33/1 Chew It Over, Pure Delight,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE FIST OF GOD is very hard to get away from despite the fact that he has been a beaten favourite on his first two starts over hurdles. The three-time Flat winner was unable to get to grips with the enterprisingly ridden Tellhimnow at Roscommon in August and failed to find much off the bridle when fourth to Yield For No One at Punchestown last week. \n
Paul Carberry should be able to ride him with more restraint in what looks like an ordinary contest, and the ground may be less demanding than was the case at Punchestown. His best Flat form was evident on a quickish surface on turf and on the polytrack at Dundalk.\
A maiden hurdle but the Meade/Carberry connection . Screams out to be a lay given field size, soft ground, race type , but why 4/5 in an 18 runner race?
1.92 / 1.2
SHORTLIST
Chance again on Toto O Whiskey at 1.5 – now this price always raises suspicion in me as it seems too high for a market leader in a non handicap
1.5 though is welcome for a horse who should be competitive and with such a small target profit, stakes will be small the bigger the odds
I am at a disadvantage re Great Leighs – if I put something forward there and things happen between now and race time to change my views, I could be accused of after timing. Suffice to say my decisions on whether to look at Great Leighs will be taken nearer race times.