Well Kicks for Free did not fall, and mysteriously finished 3rd of 3 , just like Tartan Bearer- the better value bets, Neil Harvey and Royal Auclair both placed well at 1.34 and 1.27. Ajax won after going 1 down and Galatasary lost 5-2, BUT scored the all important first goal which allows trading out which is always the thing to do.
210 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Perlachy, 9/2 Tyrannosaurus Rex, 7/1 Almaty Express, Know No Fear, Not My Choice, 9/1 Now You See Me, 12/1 Trimlestown, 14/1 Grimes Faith, Russian Symphony, Sandwith, 16/1 El Dececy, 20/1 King Kenny, 33/1 Mayoman.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Derek Shaw has a strong hand with his three runners all drawn in the bottom six, Perlachy and TYRANNOSAURUS REX in recent winning form and Know No Fear back to his last winning mark. It will be interesting to see how the market sorts them out but Tyrannosaurus Rex may well prove better suited to 5f than Perlachy.[RA]
5 furlong event and Mayoman 20/1 in places and Sandwith 7/1
230 HERHEFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Tuskar Rock, 7/4 Calaficial, 9/2 Pickamus, 14/1 Trafalgar Road, 16/1 Bushwacker, 20/1 Ellen Street, Thomondgate, 25/1 King Among Queens, Massini Moon, 33/1 Shabenito, Supreme De Paille, 100/1 Avon Court, Fraamoss, Kadastorm, Mac Halen.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tuskar Rock and Pickamus should make a race of it with all their experience but CALAFICIAL, a dual bumper winner from a top yard who holds Cheltenham entries, could be a class above them provided the ground hasn’t eased too much.[AWJ]
3horse race? THe slight mover is Pickamus at 7/2 1.46 / 1.7 / 1.72 the front 3 to place
240 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Circle Dance, Gurteen Diamond, 8/1 Little Lost, Trade Centre, Weetfromthechaff, 10/1 Chimbonda, Eternal Optimist, Location, Silk Gallery, 14/1 Villaruz, 25/1 Unbelievable Jeff, 33/1 Baby Queen, Just Timmy Marcus.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: As with most sprint maidens at this time of year, this may not take a great deal of winning. Circle Dance looks flattered by a mark of 67 and looks opposable, while Gurteen Diamond comes from a stable who haven’t had a winner for a while. Perhaps one of the newcomers will have enough about them to make a winning debut and TRADE CENTRE, who is from an excellent family, gets the tentative vote.[PSm]
Villaruz slight move into 10/1 , 9/1 in places
250 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Novikov, 3/1 St Savarin, 6/1 Where´s Susie, 13/2 The Wily Woodcock, 8/1 Traveling Man, 9/1 Intac, 14/1 Daring Racer, 18/1 Wingull, 25/1 Nathan Dee, 33/1 Our George.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NOVIKOV was a promising third to a fair sort last time, will have conditions more in his favour here and looks the one to side with in a modest event. St Savarin could pose a big threat if recapturing the form of his third at Stratford last March, while The Wily Woodcock, a hurdling newcomer and stablemate to the selection, would be very interesting if attracting support. [DM]
PRice gap now 4/7 – – – 6/1 in the live market – 4 sub 20/1 but a soft ground maiden hurddle 1.17 place
300 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Conny Nobel, 6/1 Carrickmines, 7/1 Devils River, 10/1 Come Out Firing, 12/1 Bob´s Temptation, 14/1 Lady Malousa, Mickwell Bay, 20/1 Cusp, Lord Alphieross, Mystic King, 25/1 Day Du Roy, Elgar, 33/1 Fight The Feeling, Phoenix Eye, 66/1 Vanormix.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CONNY NOBEL could be called the winner a long way out at Chepstow on Saturday and there’s no reason to question the form, as the runner-up had run well the time before and carried plenty of market confidence. If as good again only two days later, a penalty shouldn’t stop him. Come Out Firing makes some each-way appeal.[AWJ]
Another price gapper – Bobs TEmptaion now 7/1 in places 1.37 place
310 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Brouhaha, 7/2 Hucking Heat, 5/1 Supercast, 6/1 Monfils Monfils, 10/1 Saviour Sand, Urban Warrior, 14/1 Bajan Pride, Surprise Pension.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Brouhaha made all to win here last time but he doesn’t have to lead and with another front-runner in the line-up, he may be ridden with more restraint. He has to be on the shortlist but MONFILS MONFILS ran a better race last time and should appreciate a decent gallop at this trip.[PSm]
Surprise Pension 7/1
320 PLUM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Take It There, 9/2 Nous Voila, 5/1 Valentia Island, 8/1 Misbehaviour, 17/2 Wheres Johnny, 9/1 American World, 10/1 Stop The Show, 11/1 Keltic Moon, 12/1 Caspar Of Tarsus, 14/1 Roughing It.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Take It There was a close second last time, despite being pestered by a loose horse, and should go well here. Wheres Johnny could be dangerous if first-time blinkers work, and Nous Voila enters the argument on his third last time. But it might be worth siding with VALENTIA ISLAND, who showed promise on his first chase run and looks potentially well treated for this handicap debut. [DM]
Stop the SHow 6/1
350 PLUM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Intensifier, 5/1 Smoothly Does It, 11/2 Bazart, 6/1 Aureate, 7/1 Hesivorthedriver, 15/2 Wondersobright, 8/1 Bugsy´s Boy, 9/1 Sumdancer, 12/1 Maximix, 20/1 Lemon Silk, 40/1 Temple Place.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AUREATE is unexposed in handicap hurdles and could run a big race with Tony McCoy booked. Intensifier, Bazart and Smoothly Does It are feared most of the rest. [DM]
Aureate quite a move now into 11/10 solid favourite 1.37 place
400 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Carrickboy, 3/1 Oldrik, 5/1 Rippling Ring, 12/1 Matuhi, Solent, 16/1 I Have Dreamed, 20/1 Benfleet Boy, 25/1 Ellerslie Tom, 33/1 Overstrand.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Rippling Ring’s promise last term is not yet forgotten but CARRICKBOY (nap) and Oldrik clearly head the list on the more recent evidence. The former was impressive last Monday and should soon be leaving this handicap mark well behind him.[RA]
Rippling Ring 3/1 and I have dreamed 10/1 fav 1.5 to place – Rippling Ring `1.61 to place in a race where there are only 3 under 10/1 and 4 under 20/1
I have mentioned in the past the high place only price near 1.5 should be treated with suspicion but the live market is telling me this is a 4 horse race as long as the outsiders run as outsiders
440 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ettrick Mill, 9/4 Sign Of Approval, 5/2 Divinatore, 10/1 Lords A Leaping, 12/1 Broughton Beck, 66/1 Miami Mix, Stafford Charlie.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ettrick Water remains capable of better and should go well but DIVINATORE shouldn’t be underestimated and may do better now upped in trip.[PSm]
Quite a move for Lords a leaping at 4/1
450 PLUM
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Gallileo Figaro, 6/1 Friends Of Tina, 13/2 Ashleys Petale, 7/1 Orana Conti, 8/1 Jades Double, 17/2 Noun De La Thinte, 9/1 Celtic Heather, 12/1 Pomander, 14/1 Miss Clair, 16/1 Letham Island, 33/1 Sally Army.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GALLILEO FIGARO (nap) showed determination when winning at Huntingdon last week and has leading claims under a penalty, against a number of rivals who are either struggling to find or rediscover form. The most dangerous opponents could be Friends Of Tina who drops back in trip, and Orana Conti who steps up in distance on her handicap debut. [DM]
Price gapper 1.38 place
ONE A DAY
A tricky day with shorties running under a penalty in handicaps over obstacles and others of interest in maiden hurdles
250 PLUMPTON – Soft ground – again how do we know it won’t turn heavy? The fav Novikov rock solid if the live market is to be believed in a maiden hurdle.
350 PLUMPTON – another massive mover is Aureate into 11/10 from 6/1 betting forecast but looking at the original betting forecast shows a really tight handicap. IS this price move the McCoy factor?
400 HEREFORD -Carrickboy and Rippling Ring of interest but prices of 1.5 and 1.61 are suspiciously big. BUT live market tells us only 4 horses under 20/1 so might be worth chancing. Rippling Ring the market mover
I’ll go with the races in time order today and hope I get a place in the first then stop. One caveate for me today is to monitor these bets in running – I don’t normally do that – I normally bet and go but I will monitor the 250 in running and hope to trade out early with target profit in tact.