First race at Carlisle and both mentioned horses to lay lost. The 415 dutch went south only just !
Good lay of Bajan Bandit although the 2.18 earl doors on Betfair increased since I wrote the blog.
Blackpool Billy 2nd for each way backers – at leas he was competitive.
Nevada Red lost for my new lay system albeit at a higher price. The system I am tracking looks to lay less that 3/1 SP and extends to 5/1 SP for the 2nd set to increase selection numbers. This is particularly relevant for Cordell who falls into the 2nd category to 5/1 – he won.
Thebes and Malt and Mash and Underworld won. Decider another short price top weight lay going down at 11/8
Did you pay heed to the live market. I did say if the money came for House of lords it MUST be heeded – and he won at 11/10 – money talks in maidens!
Great result either way in the Roma game. The icing on the cake today though was Sunderland’s win – 0-1 correct score dutch paying out handsomely despite the stakes on the other scores (double figure odds). I got the prayer mat out as Sunderland performed exactly as expected ,keeping it tight and thanks to Scott Carson (England Keeper – you’re having a giraffe!) and Chopra ,the goal came – brilliant!
3 from 6 in the 3 into 1 system – Decider I mentioned – top weight – Two left feet – I mentioned money for House of Lords.
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Chivola, 4/1 Barraland, Kinout, 5/1 Paddy Jack, 8/1 Our Sunnie, 20/1 Miss Sunshine, 25/1 Andrasta .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHIVOLA (nap) didn’t see out the sixth furlong when placed off this mark last backend and his confidence will only have been boosted by finally getting off the mark when last seen in January.[
Money for Barraland and confidence behind Chivola – level stakes dutch the 2 – slightly risky given the constricted price market.
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Souffleur, 5/1 Clear Reef, 11/2 Los Nadis, 13/2 Cybersnow, 8/1 Casual Affair, 12/1 Smugglers Bay, 16/1 Nelsons Column, Pass The Port, Sadler´s Kingdom, 20/1 Cotton Eyed Joe, Red Lancer, 25/1 Gordonsville, Rehearsal, Salute .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Smart hurdler SOUFFLEUR is from a stable which has had a shaky time of it in recent months but he could still be a class act off this mark now back on the Flat. Several others have scope for improvement off their current marks, including Los Nadis, Clear Reef and Cybersnow
Souffleur “could be the class act” – odds against and worth support – hint of a price gap BUT not a proper price gapper at all
RElative hero is another top weight 5lb higher than the next BUT will be at an unlayable price – at odds of 16 too big – 5 to place – would be interesting to see if the horse is unplaced
History maker another qualifier but again price too big to lay 11 and 5 to place
240 TOWCESTER – The Ring -topweight by 6lbs over 3 miles odd -at 4.1 meets my criteria for a lay using my new system (BUT still being monitored)
A poor day’s racing today. Lays will be monitored for performance but no money on as yet. Probably a no bet day on the horses today – heavy/soft ground
3 into 1
310 Towcester Riguez dancer
335 Plumpton najca de Thaix
410 Plumpton Ede’s
Very interesting football today.
130 – Man Utd v Liverpool at Old TRafford.
Under 2.5 goals since 2005 in all Man Utd Liverpool fixtures, and at this stage of the season where defeat takes on added significance , this should be replicated today ,despite the presence of Ronaldo and Torres on the same pitch.
First golscorer prices are very enticing – Ronaldo at 6.2, Rooney at 7.4, Torrres at 8.2 and Gerrard at 12 worth backing, for me ,at level stakes given the prices
Celtic v GRetna 2-1 last time they played at Gretna – Gretna in turmoil but Celtic unconvincing of late being unable to find the net against perceived poorer opposition.
Celtic should win convincingly but I will lay at 1.13 given their recent rubbish performances. To win £100 liability is £13 so this is a throw away bet. If 0-0 the odds should not move below 1.13 so I can always reverse out if GRetna don’t score first (which would be a godsend!)
5.5 for hatrick scored may be worth a stake you can write off. 1.13 tells us goals are expected BUT this is Celtic!
Chelsea v Arsenal is another cracker – and again can we approach this from the fact that Chelsea do not lose at home, and continue using this until they DO lose at home.
Again since 2005 under 2.5 goals has been the call , and is likely to continue given the importance of the game.
With the almost truism that CHelsea don’t lose at home, laying Arsenal in the match odds at 3.75 looks reasonable.
Correct score dutching 0-0 (to break even) 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 may pay off at odds of 8-8, 9, 7.6, 7.
LAmpard and COle to score first at 10 and 13.5 represent big odds . Penalty would mean lampard would be a shoo in and given Chelski are at home, this could be a good scenario.
Barcelona I will lay at 1.29 if in running. Valladolid look to be somewhat of a bogey team for them if we can take the head to heads on trust.
Again I will select the best of the above bets and don’t think I will back all markets.