Very happy indeed with Pocket Too getting up – a welcome but rather unexpected 9/1 winner, 3.3 to place and 14.5 to back on Betfair added a real gloss to yesterday. I really wasn’t expecting anything from a poor day’s racing.
Ogee unplaced and the dutch came good.
Elsewhere, Getafe continue to impress with another 1-0 win . Angola scored first and I traded out because their goalkeeper instilled no confidence in me whatsoever.
The under 2.5 goals trade in the Everton match came to fruition easily by half time reaching a low of 1.17 allowing a nice trade and the ability to watch the 2nd half without any pressure and a green screen.
No problems for the mug acca despite Gretna’s match being postponed. Not a very liquid market the Rangers match but 5 goals or more was reached with ease at 1.8 or thereabouts. A pity about Valencia -they nicked it by 1 goal. All in all though an excellent day.
Interestingly, Sporting Lisbon was the latest example of a 1/5 side you could have backed at evens or higher as they were held at home by Division 2 outfit Beira Mar 0-0, yet eventually, as the odds suggested, they won 3-0. It’s always worth looking out for these very short prices at home, seeing if they’re in running, and pouncing if there’s a whiff of a shock in the air.
I must say, as well, that with all football bets I give here, one eye is always on trading ( eg Angola) – a price drop of 3.05 to 1.60 is always worth trading out – don’t let the greed monster take hold.
Soft ground at FONTWELL today signals caution
150
Again the dead 8 making each way plays an option
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Classic Fiddle, 11/4 Oscar D´Angron, 6/1 Victorias Groom, 13/2 Russian Around, 7/1 Daryal, 16/1 Double Law, Papeete, 20/1 Knock Boy .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks competitive but chasing debutante CLASSIC FIDDLE is a well-bred mare representing a yard in cracking form and will probably take all the beating with her allowance if jumping with any fluency.[AWJ] |
Classic fiddle now trades at odds on here but remember the name “beginners chase”. Daryal’s odds are 25/1 now making it a likely place only lay. 4 outsiders leave us with 4 potential each ways and I will chance 2 in Voctorias Groom and Russian around – after all Spotlight tells us “this looks competitive”
The soft ground leaves me reluctant to get involved elsewhere
GOWRAN PARK
Heavy ground here
115 – a mention for Kazal as a likely place only ( with a bit on the win) but as already mentioned there’s heavy ground to contend with here
215 – Nickname is one to back and follow in running to trade off – this should be a prep I would suggest for Cheltenham
NAD AL SHEBA
555
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Asiatic Boy, 5/2 Diabolical, 10/1 Salaam Dubai, Terrific Challenge, 25/1 Sea Hunter, 33/1 Botanical, Malayeen, Mercury Chief, Power Politics, Valiance .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This Group 3 sees the eagerly awaited reappearance of Asiatic Boy, who created such a good impression when unbeaten in four races at last year’s Carnival. A penalty and a high draw may not be enough to halt the winning dirt run but there’s a doubt about the drop to this trip and for that reason he’s taken on with established sprinter DIABOLICAL. Saeed bin Suroor has hit the ground running this year and the 5yo showed enough when winning Grade 2 and 3 contests over this trip in the States on his last two starts to suggest he will be a leading player in this compan |
Asiatic Boy at 11/8 and Diabolical at 2/1 are both backable to level stakes AT THE CURRENT PRICES
SOUTHWELL
130
Now reduced to 5 runners, the top 2 are backable at level stakes both currenlty being over evens
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Godfrey Street, 2/1 Memphis Man, 7/1 Cleveland, 10/1 Pappas Image, 12/1 High Reach, 25/1 Luloah, 33/1 Tenancy .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is likely to be fought out by the two at the top of the weights. GODFREY STREET is sure to go off quickly and can deny Memphis Man, who finished in front of the selection over C&D two weeks ago but renews rivalry on significantly worse terms |
Should they both remain over evens, they represent a solid chance. We’re backing 2 horses in a 5 runner race with 2 otsiders over 20/1 – probability wise it’s a good shout. Of course if one of the horses ventures into odds on territory then we cannot back then both ( we would want to see odds higher than 2 for both on Betfair)
330
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Contra Mundum, 11/2 Big Ralph, 6/1 Steel Grey, 9/1 Snake Hips, 10/1 Blue Opal, 12/1 Matinee Idol, 14/1 Mi Odds, On Every Street, 33/1 Aggi Mac, Didactic, 50/1 Little Hotpotch, Littleton Aldor, 66/1 Haughton Hope, Secret Cavern .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CONTRA MUNDUM was the subject of some market support when landing a better race here last week and this looks an ideal opportunity for him to follow up. Steel Grey could be the one for the foreca |
Possible price gapper here and reflected in morning prices. BUT we have a big field and a class 7 race – hardly group 1 is it?
Will probably be a back pre race and try to nick .20 points in running as the weight concession and race type is offputting .
WARWICK
Heavy ground at Dionne today.
The 240 looks interesting – dead 8 and 2 market leaders and heavy ground could allow an each way option BUT it’s precisely because of the heavy ground that I will avoid this
WOLVERHAMPTON – EVENING CARD
THE 720 is of interest with Mafaheem looking to win again but Macademy Royal for the place would be a good call ( 2 the place) – but this is a seller – – – but the card is tricky and for that reason left alone.
FOOTY
A reasonable haul yesterday for traders at least with Getafe and Angola scoring first. Unders went swimmingly in the Chelsea match. Rangers scored 6 – pity the Betfair market was so illiquid.
First thing I do today is to look at the coupon at www.ladbrokes.com – football and note any shorties playing at home.
Today sees Ghana taking on Namibia. Now if you recall a couple of days ago I mentioned Namibia could be the whipping boys. Well Ghana are at 1/12. Now what should this tell you? If you recall Liverpool were 1/10 to beat Luton and what happened? YES – goals goals goals!.
Backing at 1/12 is for the super rich ( and why on earth are they gambling!) so to enhance the odds we must look at the goals markets. Second step is to look at Betfair and scour the markets for that game for something at reasonable odds which has a chance of coming to fruition ( remembering the Liverpool game, should we set our sites on around 5 goals?)
Half time/full time for Ghana boosts the odds to 1.36. Yes an improvement on 1.12 for the Ghana win.
We can boost the odds further with backing the over 2.5 goals market at 1.43 – this again mirrors the Liverpool game where the odds were 1.39.
Market expectation? – 3 goals are heavy odds on to come in !- in fact 4/9
Next stopping point if 3 goals are 4/9 is the over 3.5 goal market?
1.92 for over 3.5 goals – compare that with 1.12 to back Ghana and we now have nearly an evens chance about a 1/12 on team.
Trading must be uppermost here. Should it be 2-0 or 3-0 quickly then that 1.92 will drop considerably and we must be traders rather than straight gamblers hoping for a 4th goal. With the Liverpool game, 3-0 and the odds went down to 1.28 – this is ideal to see some profit ( don’t forget to green screen both outcomes!)
For the super optimistic, over 4.5 goals stands at 3.15 and again can be traded if, as expected, at least 3 goals are scored ( well it’s priced up at 4/9!)
Villareal and Barca stand out today but this is a Spanish Cup game, treated with disdain by Real Madrid who frankly couldn’t care less against Real Mallorca putting up so sort of resistance at all.
Villareal were very solid in their last televised game coming out 3-0 victors against a poor Valencia. Villareal at home have beaten Barca twice, hence the 6/4 about the Catalan giants.
Team news is of utmost importance here. It’s a tough one to call. Barca have a sequence to break – that of having been beaten twice at Villareal’s ground and for those who think Villareal cannot make it a hattrick, then the 6/4 about Barca is big.
The prices tell us this will be a tight affair, and I suspect under 2.5 goals for the first 20 minutes of the game should nick us a few points trading profit. Ideally a game to miss, and full concentration on the Ghana match.