Flying Falcon won the dutch at Chepstow and quite decent odds too.3rd fav won at Fairyhouse .
Hobbs Hill was a faller -these things inevitably happen from time to time on the jumps.
Binocular won for a slight profit. Dansant won in the grade 1 at Lingfield and I chickened out and went for the place which was a reasonable 1.59 (1.35 at the off allowing traders to get stakes back)
Hobbs Hill a faller for the 3 into 1 system and Unowatimeen broke a blood vessel – unavoidable and something we are unable to see in advance!
With the Arsenal game, it meant that I got out of the under 2.5 goal trade at 1.65, a very slight profit because of the early sending off. You really have to be reactive to circumstances with trading and I played it safe.
Again the unpredictable Liverpool decided to win both halves leaving me a slight profit on Liverpool/Liverpool.
Nice profit in the Wigan correct score dutch with the 2-0
Ronaldo and Rooney both scored in a game I expected Newcastle to put up a fight for at home. Again, like the Liverpool match, Man Utd won both halves leaving a slight break even. I really expected Newcastle to be up for the match ,hence my caution in including the draw.
Back into the winners enclosure with another mug punter acca – you see the value of laying sides – eg the Birmingham v Arsenal game! A nice 1.98 priced bet
EXETER
325
MACMAR is the 3 into 1 system selection today, but under normal circumstances I wouldn’t play a 15/8 shot over 2 miles 7 furlongs with a weight penalty. Yesterday saw the unpredictability of horse racing with the 3 into 1 selections – a faller and a broken blood vessel. This ended the run of 14winners in the last 17. Again, because this is a mechanical system, I will leave Macmar up as the bet despite personal opinion.
500
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Gold Medallist, 3/1 Rustarix, 6/1 Pimbury, Sir Bathwick, 33/1 Cava Bien, 66/1 Sir Pandy, Spitfire Bob, 100/1 Beesneez, Knapp Bridge Boy .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It was disappointing that GOLD MEDALLIST couldn’t take advantage of what looked an easy opportunity last time but he deserves another chance to confirm the potential he had previously shown. Rustarix has a poor strike-rate but is best placed to take advantage should the selection underperform.[SR]
Pimbury is the fly in the ointment. Again a good opportunity to back the first 2 to level stakes with slight loss on Gold medallist and profit on Rustarix -given Gold medallist’s disappointing performances last time, it is probably a good thing to load the profit onto Rustarix.
Pimbury cannot be dismissed but is uneconomical for inclusion.
FONTWELL
245
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Oscar Park, 7/2 O´Maley, 6/1 Dr Hart, 8/1 Sole Agent, 16/1 Gaelic Gift .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves around OSCAR PARK, who was the clear pick of these over hurdles and has made a promising start to his chase career. The fact that he fell on his chase debut sounds a slight note of caution but his jumping was fine when winning well last time and he will be very hard to beat if jumping competently again. O’Maley is marginally preferred to Dr Hart as the biggest danger
“will be very hard to beat IF” – the “if” is not ideal. Otherwise with Oscar Park we have a winner last time out, top RPR, most tips, Sptolight –
” Oscar Park
Useful staying hurdler who has made very promising start to chase career, still looking a live threat when coming down in decent event at Kempton before making amends with eased-down win in 3m Fakenham novice last time; similarly accomplished round of jumping likely to make him very hard to beat.”
Again it is worth, personally, dutching the top 2 given there are 2 prominent outsiders, with a ratio as follows
OSCAR PARK – 1.76 £15
OMALEY – 3.8 £5
Here I have loaded profit on Oscar Park because of the positives from Spotlight
315
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Sporazene, 4/1 Tikram, 9/2 See You Sometime, 5/1 Big Rob, 12/1 Ryders Storm, 25/1 Haggle Twins, 33/1 Craven, 100/1 The Hardy Boy .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: On the face of it, a good opportunity for SPORAZENE (nap), though he’ll need to jump better than he sometimes does if he’s to defy his big weight. See You Sometime, the only other carrying his correct weight, is in the twilight of his career while Tikram looks to be on the decline so the main threat may come from Big Rob.[DH]
The straight 8 (as was) now reduced to 6 with the absence of Big Rob and Haggle Twins BUT Betfair will still pay out for the first 3 in the place only market, meaning horses only have 3 to beat to place , 2 of these 3 are at 50/1 and 100/1!
See you sometime looks worthy of support to place at 1.55 as he really only has Ryders Storm to beat to place if we can dismiss the outsiders.
Those who want a potentially easier ride can take the reasonable 1.25 ( given the circumstances) about the market leaders placing
KEMPTON
Unappealing card
Naas
J’y Vole runs again today – a terrific mare for Willie Mullins, and seeing the race she won last time, she overcame all sorts of problems. I put another Mullins mare, Pomme Tiepy up recently and that one obliged. j’y Vole’s tendency to jump out to the right and this may be her undoing today on a right handed track.
One to watch for me. I cannot lay her because of her qualities and Ruby on board but will sit out backing her today.
If you decide to back her, you’ll get a good run for your money
FOOTY
Very good day made frustrating by half time/full time dutches ending as break evens – hey its all about preservation of the betting bank while enabling us to be in with a shout of winning.
St Mirren v Celtic interest me – again half time/full time Celtic Celtic and Draw/Celtic helps to boost the odds. Stakes of £14 at odds of 2 on the former and £6 at 4.6 on the latter spreads profit ( about £7 return so if you work in multiples of that you’ll know how much to place)
If a team is priced 1/9 it usually means goals, and this may be the case in the Rangers v Gretna game today. Half time/full time is 1.4 which enhances the 1.11 match odds.
NOTE this game is not in running so bets are straight bets and are not tradeable .
For those who want a speculative bet, any unquoted in the correct score market is 2.6, a huge difference when compared to the match odds market.
The assumption here is that Rangers will score 4 as I cannot see Gretna scoring 4!. As an enhanced odds bet, it may be worth chancing.
I have no personal opinion re the Carling Cup Final – one off matches – anything can happen and head to heads are worthless.
MUG PUNTER ACCA
With so many home teams expected to have an easy ride today, I’m hoping for 3 on the trot with my mug punter accas
1 St Mirren v Celtic (Laying St Mirren @ 16.08)
2 Rangers v Gretna (Backing Rangers @ 1.1)
3 Barcelona v Levante (Backing Barcelona @ 1.13)
4 Galatasaray v Kasimpasa (Laying Kasimpasa @ 84.31)
5 PSV v De Graafschap (Laying De Graafschap @ 53.43)
6 Panathinaikos v Levadiakos (Laying Levadiakos @ 92.81)
6-Folds
Selections Odds* Stake Potential win
1,2,3,4,5 and 6 1.37 £25.60 £9.47
No real value at all to me.
You may want to consider
1 PSV v De Graafschap (Backing PSV @ 1.17)
2 Rangers v Gretna (Backing Rangers @ 1.1)
3 Barcelona v Levante (Backing Barcelona @ 1.13)
4 St Mirren v Celtic (Backing Celtic @ 1.33)
5 Panathinaikos v Levadiakos (Laying Levadiakos @ 85.65)
6 Galatasaray v Kasimpasa (Laying Kasimpasa @ 77.18)
6-Folds
Selections Odds* Stake Potential win
1,2,3,4,5 and 6 1.97 £25.60 £24.83
NEar enough to evens to warrant consideration