MARKET MOVERS – Etoile Do’or ran well but couldn’t fill the places
Donald will do wins at 4/1 for my 16/1 in your lunchtime system Team Chaser came 2nd at 18/1 in the same race
Pass the class placed 3rd at 11/1 for each way backers
Sarisoto Sunshine won at 4/1 for another system bet
Boxbury unplaced 4th at 7/1 but ran well
ONE A DAY PLACE ONLY – Song of Songs won and my one a day Dance and Dance won under Frankie Spencer.
COMMENT – as you’ll read in the newsletter, watch out for horses like Donald will Do (16/1 in the betting forecast and 4/1 at the off) and Saristoa Sunshine ( 10/1 (from memory) in the betting forecast and 4/1 at the off) both winning at sub 5/1 – is this coincidence? I don’t know. All I do know is recently sub 5/1 qualifiers have run very well.
PLACE ONLY POSSIBLES
210 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Lord Tomnoddy, 5/2 The Old Pretender, 13/2 King Edmund, 12/1 Dorothy´s Friend, 16/1 Costa Courta, Dundry, 20/1 Rear Gunner, The Dodger Carey, 25/1 Prince Zafonic, Pugilist, Rebeccas Choice, 33/1 Maderson Blue, Majic Moments, 80/1 Mr Bojangels, 100/1 Giggles O´Shea,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Old Pretender is clearly well capable of winning a race like this and conditions will not be nearly so taxing as those with which he blew his chance here last time out, but LORD TOMNODDY (nap) showed comparable form and lots of promise on his debut at Taunton.
5 horses under 33/1 the ones to focus on? 1.51 and 1.28 the front 2 – the old PRetender the one they fancy above the bf fav to place
215DOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 An Innocent Man, 4/1 Emotional Melody, 5/1 Oh So Humbel, 6/1 Fairwood Bob, 10/1 Moscow Towers, 12/1 Ballycolin, Hafak, 14/1 Cayo Levantado, Liffer Lad, 20/1 Empire Magic, 25/1 Deel River Queen, 33/1 Baskin Gael, Sister Lord, 50/1 Bloomfield Lass, Halls Pictorial,
4 horses under 25/1 -a fav who has placed 2nd 3 times BUT, as with the first race, this is a maiden hurdle 1.11
220 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Razor Royale, 7/2 Back Among Friends, 5/1 Mister Watzisname, Pertemps Networks, 16/1 First Boy, 40/1 Sea Robber, 50/1 Baskerville.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RSA Chase entry RAZOR ROYALE is given another chance to fulfil the promise of his chasing debut but Mister Watzisname and Back Among Friends are capable of giving him problems if at their best.[PJ]
Price gap of sorts but closer in live market as I write (10 15am). With 2 potential rivals and only 2 places, there is NO margin for error 1.41 to place – 2 to place -quite a high price relative to the win only price
240 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Silk Affair, 6/1 Isintshelovely, 10/1 Lindy Lou, 14/1 Peggy Ann, 25/1 Etain, 33/1 Smart N Sharp, 66/1 Cadeaux Cerise, Saddlers Mot.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SILK AFFAIR earned a mark of 120 after running out a decisive winner at Sandown and, with no obvious improvers lurking in today’s field, she should have little difficulty in following up.[
Unlike Song of Songs, this is 3 the place and of obvious interest but likely to be a piss poor price 1.07- because its 3 the place and there’s 3 at 66/1 and 1 at 33/1
245 DOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Itsallaracket, 11/4 Hello Kitty, 6/1 Andrews Pet, 8/1 Present Gesture, 10/1 No Stopping Sarah, 14/1 Dew On The Grass, 16/1 Knocklayde Rose, Social Society, 20/1 Black Lassie, 25/1 Joes Missile, Vinnes Friend, 33/1 Tart Mor.
FAv now odds on – good sign?
Yielding ground a concern 1.2 and 1.36 – market not too liquid
300 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Yungaburra, 7/2 Woodcote, 5/1 Desperate Dan, 8/1 Decider, 10/1 Lytton, 14/1 Rocketball, Wynberg, 16/1 Fire Up The Band, 25/1 Mr Loire, 33/1 Spanish Ace.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: YUNGABURRA has at least 10lb in hand on adjusted BHA ratings and looks to have sound claims at this level following solid efforts in 0-85 handicaps here on his last couple of starts. Desperate Dan is next on the list.[SB]
Now odds on but in a seller
Now odds on but in a seller 1.2 to place
320 BANG
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Gold Reef, Pelican Point, 11/4 Bella Haze, 12/1 Flutter Bye, 14/1 Spangle Island, 25/1 Crow Spinney, Laureate Des Loges, Petit Fleur, 100/1 Jaunty Dove.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A return to less taxing ground may see GOLD REEF turn tables with Pelican Point on these better terms. Bella Haze completes the shortlist.[BDO]
4 horses sub 25/1 in a 9 runner (and 3 the place) race – can we discount Flutter Bye 1.22 / 1.36 / 1.52 the front 3 to place
340 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Gallileo Figaro, 6/1 Buffalo Bob, 8/1 Pocketwood, 10/1 Geography, Leo McGarry, 12/1 Sandymac, 14/1 Armenian Boy, Crofters Lad, Deep Pockets, Quattrocento, 25/1 Businessmoney Jake, Nagam, 33/1 English Jim, I´m Lovin It, Wide Receiver.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Gallileo Figaro is the safe option but she’ll be very short in her bid for a hat-trick and there is no shortage of each-way alternatives. Armenian Boy is a possible improver but, returning to the scene of his best run yet, the suggestion is BUFFALO BOB.[AWJ]
On a hattrick here but ominous signs in the live market – out to 5/2 but price gap remains – 2nd fav 7/1 – 2 miles 6 f class 6 handicap 1.85 to palce
350 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Ultimate Limit, 6/1 Ballyvoge, 8/1 Never So Blue, 10/1 Cave Hill, 14/1 Best Profile, Darina´s Boy, Huckleberry, 16/1 Craven, 20/1 Durante, Lost In Normandy, 25/1 Aztec Warrior.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It’s hard to look beyond ULTIMATE LIMIT, who’s been a revelation since joining Alan Fleming and, off a featherweight, will be tough to beat.[BDO]
My kind of price gap – now odds on with next best 10/1 , concern this is 3 miles + in ground that may worsen as the day progresses 1.3 to place
420 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 I´m The Decider, 5/1 Caipiroska, Dom D´Orgeval, 6/1 Snake Charmer, 8/1 Mortimers Cross, 12/1 Jeepstar, 14/1 Scarvagh Diamond, 16/1 Dan Buoy, 20/1 Imtihan.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A return to hurdles may help the classy Dom D’Orgeval recapture form but a safer bet looks to be I’M THE DECIDER (nap), who ought to garner confidence from his latest Ludlow success.[BDO]
PRice gapper in betting forecast but Caipiroska now 10/3 in live market 1.38 to place
440 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Dante´s Storm, 4/1 Shillingstone, 6/1 Senor Cid, 10/1 Who Else Knew, 16/1 Bolero Eclair, 25/1 Good Gordon.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DANTE’S STORM has looked a horse of some potential in winning his points and is not asked too stiff a question on his first taste of rules action. Shillingstone, another with his best days probably ahead of him, pay prove most troublesome.[AWJ]
Price gapper here -lots of 1’s BUT note these have come largely in the point to point sphere and not over regulation fences 1.31 to place only 2 to place
510 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Sherwani Wolf, 7/1 J´Adhere, 8/1 Amber Shell, 12/1 Pretti Woman, 16/1 What De Know Phil, 20/1 Devoran Quay, Joli Al, 33/1 Another Miracle, Justalittlebitmore.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is very little in the way of racecourse evidence but what there is suggests that SHERWANI WOLF is a useful prospect and likely to set a daunting standard for today’s newcomers.
BIG price gapper but this is a bumper so we need to monitor the market – still now 4/9 in live market 1.1 to place
515 DOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Hammersmith, 5/1 Dapper Dan, 6/1 Browne´s Crusher, Maurice Speed, 13/2 Urban Gale, 8/1 Lough Coyne, Montan, 14/1 Up To Old Trix, 25/1 Lobinstown Girl, Lord Multifix.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DAPPER DAN is put forward as an each-way alternative to a likely Willie Mullins-trained favourite. The Halling gelding made a bright introduction when third to Immediate Response at Gowran in November, and picked up further experience when beaten into fourth behind the Mullins-trained Gagewell Flyer at Fairyhouse in December.\n
Another price gapper and another bumper – caution – fav probably cos its mullins and Mullins 1.15 to place
720 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Forty Thirty, 6/1 Cardinal James, 8/1 Soul Singer, 12/1 Treasure Islands, 16/1 Dawn Wind, Rossatron, 20/1 Rannoch Rose, 25/1 Double Exposure, 50/1 Wild By Nature.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Forty Thirty sets the standard but he needs to settle better than he did on his reappearance and at the likely prices he could be worth taking on. Soul Singer is capable of better, but CARDINAL JAMES showed a bit of promise in two bumpers and is being introduced in a very winnable event here
BIG price gap – but a horse who has failed to impress 1.21 to place
Will do market movers arounbd 1pm just before the racing starts and also decide on my one a day placer
Football alternatives – my boys Zambia seek to make the world stand up and take notice ( I was born in Zambia) but Ivory Coast v Tanzania looks a decent shot at 2/9 ( provided the bog boys are playing, and likelihood they are not with Chelsea in action today (Drogba !) so could be tricky
A liverpool lay looks enticing with Real MAdrid now a real force -tight at the back and scoring for fun ( 6 at the weekend followd 6 the previous week. I would want to see the superb slaphead Arjen Robben playing , and would prefer if Gerrard, Alonso and Torres were out for Liverpool.
Corinthians at 1/5 this evening could be worthy of one a day status – I saw then live last time they were 1/5 shots and they battered the opposition. At home, I expect more of the same.
Final decisions and market movers to come around 1pm
MARKET MOVERS
210 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Lord Tomnoddy, 5/2 The Old Pretender, 13/2 King Edmund, 12/1 Dorothy´s Friend, 16/1 Costa Courta, Dundry, 20/1 Rear Gunner, The Dodger Carey, 25/1 Prince Zafonic, Pugilist, Rebeccas Choice, 33/1 Maderson Blue, Majic Moments, 80/1 Mr Bojangels, 100/1 Giggles O´Shea,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Old Pretender is clearly well capable of winning a race like this and conditions will not be nearly so taxing as those with which he blew his chance here last time out, but LORD TOMNODDY (nap) showed comparable form and lots of promise on his debut at Taunton.[RA]
Old Pretender now 7/4 fav
The Dodger Carey 20/1 in betting forecast now 6/1 in places!
230 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Many Welcomes, 9/2 All You Need, 8/1 Bold Diva, Great Knight, 9/1 Argentine, Imperial Djay, 10/1 Tamino, 12/1 Hunt The Bottle, 16/1 Blakeshall Quest, Piccolo Diamante, Royal Acclamation, 20/1 Kirkie, 25/1 Mr Skipiton.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Recent C&D winners All You Need and Many Welcomes are respected, particularly the latter, but they could be worth taking on with GREAT KNIGHT, who shaped encouragingly in a slightly higher grade here on his first outing for Sylvester Kirk and that form has been boosted since.[SB]
Royal Acclamation 16/1 betting forecast 4/1 in places
2 non runnerswere 8/1 and 12/1 may have impacted the market?
250 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Agglestone Rock, Moment Present, 5/1 Loco Grande, 11/2 Sacrilege, 7/1 Red And White, Rory Boy, 8/1 Akarshan, 12/1 Dontpaytheferryman, Karky Schultz.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several to consider. Moment Present, who is held in some regard at home and looks just the sort for this type of contest, may be able to confirm form with Loco Grande but it could be worth hoping for improvement from RED AND WHITE now she can race on some less demanding going.[PJ]
Slight move the front 2 (11/4 and 5/2 live market) not templated 16/1 system though as per Donald yesterday
310 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Wasntme, 11/4 Narlen, 4/1 Anna Panna, 7/1 Riccardo, 10/1 Bearneen Boy, 14/1 Debord, 20/1 Kourosh.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WASNTME and Narlen are the only ones bringing any kind of momentum into the race and preference is for Colin Tizzard’s winning pointer, who should benefit for coming back in distance if connections use the same positive tactics that were adopted at Taunton last week.[AWJ]
Bearneen Boy 9/2 in places
330 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 La Diosa, 5/1 Nicky Nutjob, Strikemaster, 13/2 Kochanski, 8/1 Screaming Brave, 10/1 Key Of Fortune, 12/1 Irish Saint, 14/1 Spring Quartet, 16/1 Saffron´s Son, Witch Of The Wave, 20/1 Kneesy Earsy Nosey, Miss Cracklinrosie.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: La Diosa is 2-2 for her new stable but this is a more open race than a quick glance at the form figures might suggest. Several of these may do better now sent handicapping and/or upped to this trip and the vote goes to KEY OF FORTUNE, whose latest effort has been boosted by all four of those that finished in front of her
Irish Saint and Witch of the wave
350 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Ultimate Limit, 6/1 Ballyvoge, 8/1 Never So Blue, 10/1 Cave Hill, 14/1 Best Profile, Darina´s Boy, Huckleberry, 16/1 Craven, 20/1 Durante, Lost In Normandy, 25/1 Aztec Warrior.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It’s hard to look beyond ULTIMATE LIMIT, who’s been a revelation since joining Alan Fleming and, off a featherweight, will be tough to beat.[BDO]
BEst profile 10/1
400 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Garra Molly, 9/4 Air Maze, 9/2 Taminas Desert, 8/1 Happy And Glorious, 14/1 Herecomesbella, Wusuul, 25/1 Give, Mill Beattie, 33/1 Thirtyfourthstreet, 50/1 Will Exell.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Garra Molly just about sets the standard on the pick of her turf efforts over further but AIR MAZE, who should be suited by another step up in distance, wouldn’t need to improve much further to get off the mark. Support for Taminas Desert would be interesting.[SB]
Air maze now 5/4 in places – and 2 2nds to her name – but a maiden fillies race
410 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Iwillrememberyou, 6/1 Apatura Dik, 13/2 New Perk, 7/1 Lyes Green, Maletton, The Ring, 9/1 Topless, 10/1 Enroblim Trop, 12/1 Pass Me A Dime, 16/1 Mister Apple´s, Monzon, Russian Trigger, 20/1 Dr Hart, 40/1 Alderbrook Girl.
Russian trigger now 6/1
430 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Safin, 9/2 Ice Bellini, 13/2 Rough Sketch, 7/1 Generous Star, 12/1 Drumhallagh, Josh You Are, 14/1 Cantabilly, Noubian, 16/1 Border Tale, Capitalise, 20/1 King De Lune, Millagros, 25/1 Dr McFab.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few of these have dropped to handy marks on their best form, while there are also good reasons to consider Ice Bellini and Rough Sketch, but the vote goes to the in-form SAFIN who followed up a recent hurdles success in decent style at Southwell on Friday and is 2-2 under Graham Gibbons.[SB]
Dr McFab 3/1 , 11/4 in places – WHAT A MOVE! Drumhallagh less significant at 8/1
500 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Catalan Bay, 4/1 Caprio, 6/1 Cornus, Mr Macattack, 8/1 Guildenstern, Obezyana, 14/1 Orpen Wide, 20/1 Gunfighter.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A mark of 75 could prove lenient for CATALAN BAY (nap) judged on her Australian form and she can be expected to build on a promising British debut. Caprio and Cornus are feared most.[SB]
Gunfighter 8/1 and Catalan Bay now 5/4 solid at head of market
510 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Sherwani Wolf, 7/1 J´Adhere, 8/1 Amber Shell, 12/1 Pretti Woman, 16/1 What De Know Phil, 20/1 Devoran Quay, Joli Al, 33/1 Another Miracle, Justalittlebitmore.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is very little in the way of racecourse evidence but what there is suggests that SHERWANI WOLF is a useful prospect and likely to set a daunting standard for today’s newcomers.[RA]
Slight move for What de Know Phil now 10/1 in places
520 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Edge Of Town, 9/2 Lough Inchiquinn, 11/2 Jubilee Queen, Shannina, 9/1 Marwan, 10/1 Lannacombe Clover, 12/1 Timeshift, 14/1 Maidstone Maresaca, Tough Cookie, 20/1 My Little Goldie, Spring Haze, 25/1 Holy Balloney, 50/1 Torta Nel Cielo, 66/1 Blues Baby Daisey, Mister Rez.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mick Easterby has been mopping up this type of race recently and has another likely contender in LOUGH INCHIQUINN, who is given a narrow vote over likely improvers Edge Of Town and Shannina.[PJ]
Timeshift 6/1 in places
600 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Giddywell, 7/2 Waldorf, 5/1 Stoic Leader, 6/1 Hurricane Coast, Machinate, 14/1 Speagle, 16/1 Make Amends, 20/1 Hill Of Lujain, 25/1 Berrymead, 33/1 Magical Mimi.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It’s still difficult to be sure what WALDORF’s optimum trip is likely to be but he looks worth this step back in distance and, the least exposed runner, may be able to make an impact off a modest mark on his handicap debut. Giddywell and Machinate are others for the shortlist.[SB]
Hill of Lujain 12/1 in plac es
720 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Forty Thirty, 6/1 Cardinal James, 8/1 Soul Singer, 12/1 Treasure Islands, 16/1 Dawn Wind, Rossatron, 20/1 Rannoch Rose, 25/1 Double Exposure, 50/1 Wild By Nature.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Forty Thirty sets the standard but he needs to settle better than he did on his reappearance and at the likely prices he could be worth taking on. Soul Singer is capable of better, but CARDINAL JAMES showed a bit of promise in two bumpers and is being introduced in a very winnable event here.[PSm]
Cardinal james 3/1 in places and Dawn wind 6/1 in places
820 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Emirates World, 3/1 Markyg, 5/1 Auld Arty, Grand Honour, 8/1 Give Us A Song, 12/1 Rio Royale, 16/1 Asian Tale.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Auld Arty and Grand Honour should both run their race under these conditions and are respected, but MARKYG and Emirates World may be open to more improvement. Preference is for the former, who looks on a very competitive mark on the pick of his juvenile form.[PSm]
Rio Royale 7/1 in places
920 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Kielty´s Folly, 9/2 Inquisitress, 6/1 Amber Moon, 8/1 Flamestone, Kinsman, Whodunit, 10/1 Daggerman, Mr Rev, 16/1 Countrywide Comet, 20/1 Bet Noir, Gambling Jack, 33/1 Flipacoin, 50/1 Where To Now.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kielty’s Folly ran a better race at Wolverhampton and should go well but plenty looks in place for a big run from INQUISITRESS and she can capitalise on her tumbling mark.[PSm]
Countrywide comet now 12/1 in places and Gambling Jack 14/1 in places
ONE A DAY PLACE ONLY BETTING
SHORTLIST
215 DOWN – An innocent man – 3 2nd places and 1.11 to place but this is a maiden hurdle over questionable ground
240 FOLK – Silk affair at 1.07 is in a race with 3 clear outsiders and 3 to place -unlike Song of Songs who only had 2 to place
300 WOLVES – Yungaburra – drop from class 4 to class 6 selling stakes today and a kind of borderline price gapper in a poor handicap ( yes I know this is a seller) Heavy odds on shot now – 2 non runners redce field to straight 8 1.18 to place
Slight concern Robert Winston onboard has not ridden horse before – where’s Adam Kirby?
350 BANGOR – very eyecatching price gap here for Ultimate Limit ” off a feather weight” – out of the handicap ( not sure what that means!) Cannot ignore this price gap though, BUT 3 miles is a long way 1.29 to place
400 WOLVES – Air maze is of interest having been backed into favouratism 2 2nd places albeit at a furlong less than today , but a progressive enough profile and should come in the first 3 ( backed as if tthat is a definite consideration) 1.19 to place
510 FOLK – Sherwani Wolf a big price gapper but no experience among market rivals means how on earth can we tell how good they are? 1.1 to place
All strong in their own way this lot above. For simplicity sake, Silk affair is the one today at 1.07 with 3 places, and 3 outsiders at 66/1 and one at 40/1 in an 8 runner race!
Yungaburra does appeal with the drop in class but this is a 5 furlong seller but 1.18 bumps the price up a bit
350 BANGOR – Ultimate Limit pushes the prices up further to 1.29 – this I suppose relates to the race distance of 3 miles which is a long way. HE has the profile of a HTB selection (SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It’s hard to look beyond ULTIMATE LIMIT, who’s been a revelation since joining Alan Fleming and, off a featherweight, will be tough to beat)
“escapes penalty for last week´s easy success for this jockey and conditions suit; hard to beat, even from 3lb out of handicap”
Here’s a definition of “out of the handicap”
You often hear about a horse competing in a race from out of the handicap. When this happens, a trainer will appreciate that they’re biting off more than they can chew in the hope that their horse has the ability to make up for a deficiency in merit that the handicapper deems the horse to have.
In short, horses that run from out the handicap are runnig with more
weight than they should be (according to their official rating), but
have no choice as the bottom weight is a minimum of 10 stone. The more
weight the top horse carries, more chance the bottom horse will ‘stay
in’ the handicap.
WHat is the significance of this?
We can chance the big price gap as our pointer to Ultimate Limit as a selection. At 1.29 it is a very appealing price comparitive to Silk affair. I would personally follow this bet in running and react accordingly, my total confidence in the bet dampened by the “out of the hadnicap ” thing – I simply don’t have a clear grasp of that.
CONCLUSION
Silk affair for me today at a crap price is my rock solid one at 1.07
Ultimate Limit would be my riskier higher priced selection at 1.29