Note of caution – Did you see the Professor Higgins v Behreyan race? A 2 horse race if ever there was one, But Behreyan ran out mid race – unexpected – this is a timely reminder that in horse racing anything can happen. Although I plumped for the Professor in this race, I could so easily have made a case for Beherayn.
This also reinforces sticking to one a day betting doesn’t it? Peter Pole nailed it so no need to look further yesterday. More selections and more involvement mean the likelihood of a mishap amongst other bets
210 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Cobbler´s Queen, 5/1 Waltham Abbey, 8/1 Danse Macabre, That´s For Sure, 10/1 Ruby Isabel, Speedy Directa, 12/1 Tara Taylor, 14/1 Bob ´N´ You, Green Day Packer, Wardington Lad, 16/1 High Life, Ramvaswani, 20/1 Global Strategy, 25/1 Owlsley, 33/1 Amarillo Slim, Classic Quart, Mceldowney, That´s An Honour.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WALTHAM ABBEY has run well here in the past and so nearly returned to form with a bang at Chepstow, where he looked unlucky not to beat Speedy Directa. There are a handful of less exposed contenders to bear in mind, headed by Ruby Isabel.[AWJ]
Bob n you 7/1 in places , Ramvaswani 10/1 in places , Classic Quart 20/1, 16/1 and as low as 14/1 in places
Conditional jockeys and Towcester may allow for a more open race
220 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Speak The Truth, 7/2 Just The Lady, 5/1 Ruby Tallulah, 7/1 Readily, 8/1 Fasliyanne, Piccaso´s Sky, 9/1 The Cuckoo, 14/1 Little Lost, 40/1 Geese A Laying, 66/1 Yes She Can Can.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SPEAK THE TRUTH is best forgiven his latest slightly below-par run having been slowly away in a stronger race and a return to his earlier form will give him sound prospects against some disappointing types. Ruby Tallulah may give him most to do.[FC]
The Cuckoo 5/1 in places as a market mover
230 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Art Trend, 7/2 Persian Storm, 9/2 King´s Alchemist, 14/1 Always Cruising, Tiger O´Toole, 33/1 Miss Maratana, Murphy´s Mate, Tachbury, 50/1 Ariodante, Pistol Hill, Tiny Dynamo.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It’ll be very disappointing if the useful Flat recruit ART TREND cannot open his account as a hurdler after showing initial promise in this sphere against stronger types. King’s Alchemist and Persian Storm can fight out minor honours.[BDO]
Maiden hurdle -4 horses under 20/1, one market mover in King’s Alchemist at 5/2. Fav still odds on. Potential probability race but odds on fav doesn’t look too impressive formwise and how significant is the market mover,
As a maiden hurdle, is there a dark horse amongst the outsiders or will they run to their prices? 1.12 and 1.35 the 2 live market leaders (Kings and Art)
240 TOWC
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Johns Square, Sharp Belline, 6/1 Gerrard, 7/1 Donald Will Do, 10/1 Hello My Lovely, Walton Way, 12/1 Just Standeese, Tomillielou, 14/1 Blunham Hill, Definitely It, 16/1 Mr Ironman, Something Gold, 20/1 Follow The Flow, Overton Lad, 50/1 Lonesome Boatman, Riccardo.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of familiar faces locking horns but this is a minefield with solid recent form so thin on the ground. JOHNS SQUARE is at least open to some improvement in the headgear and earns a tentative vote ahead of Sharp Belline and Donald Will Do.[AWJ]
Overton Lad threatening to be a market mover – 14/1 in places
250 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 The Magic Blanket, 5/1 Bluebok, 6/1 Fizzlephut, Teen Ager, 15/2 Another Socket, 9/1 Martingrange Boy, 10/1 Mudhish, 12/1 The Lord, 16/1 Smokin Beau, 25/1 Brazilian Brush.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these have questions to answer but THE MAGIC BLANKET (nap) is interesting at the foot of the handicap. Evidently best fresh, he has had a break since winning here in January and remains on a potentially favourable mark.[FC]
Fav has hardened into 7/4 -another class 6 low grade handicap (easy winner for system yesterday with Greenmile ( can’t remember the exact name ) – Martingrange Boy is now 5/1. Good move. Will back both as market movers 5/1 and under if remaining so at SP
300 TAUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Rockiteer, 2/1 Pertinent, Schindlers Son, 10/1 Mad Moose.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The talented Pertinent has under-achieved since being trained in Britain and is passed over in favour of ROCKITEER, who can draw upon his latest confidence-boosting win to follow up over a longer trip that should suit.[BDO]
Outsider 6/1 in places but don’t know how much faith I’d place on this as a market mover in such a small race
330 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Peter Pole, 3/1 Fire And Rain, 9/2 Sula´s Legend, 16/1 Dream Falcon, 25/1 Lester Leaps In.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pick of the three impressive recent winners lining up is very useful French import PETER POLE, who jumped and travelled like a very decent prospect when mightily impressive at both Exeter and Southwell yesterday.[BDO]
Perhaps to be expected, Peter Pole a non runner after yesterday’s excellent victory. Leaves an interesting race with 1st and 2nd favs non runners and ,of course, Sulas Legend, originally the only horse under 16/1 left in the betting forecast as the favourite
THe outsiders of course are no longer 161 and 25/1 -surely the remaining horse originally under 16/1 in the betting forecast has an outstanding chance of placing? 1.16 to place
340 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Matcho Pierji, 5/2 Golden Child, 3/1 Double The Trouble, 10/1 Tizzy Blue, 12/1 Timpo, 16/1 John Dillon, 33/1 Paradis Blue.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Andy Turnell’s horses are back in form and DOUBLE THE TROUBLE, returning to the scene of one of his hurdling victories, should go close if clicking with his claiming rider. Better is expected from Golden Child and he poses just as big a threat as Matcho Pierji, whose chasing career has been up and down so whether he can build on his win last time remains to be seen.[AWJ]
Timpo 8/1 in places
400 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Spanish Conquest, 7/2 Hot Diamond, 11/2 Mutual Friend, 6/1 Postmaster, 12/1 Winsley Hill, 25/1 Boogie Dancer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Postmaster, Mutual Friend and Hot Diamond are all useful hurdlers but they’ll do well to give lumps of weight to the hat-trick seeker SPANISH CONQUEST (nap), who has struck up a good partnership with rising star Rhys Flint and ought to appreciate the conditions.[BDO]
Fav hardened to 1/2 , of course in reaction to 3rd fav non runner and outsider non runner. Only 2 places though but a Nicholls horse 1.14 to place
410 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Midsummer Magic, 11/4 Speed Bonnie Boat, 3/1 Tokahy, 13/2 Edgevine, 7/1 Flutter Bye, 16/1 Haveyoubeen, 25/1 Assay Office, 33/1 Ecureuille Rouge, Nomore, 66/1 Inge It Is, 100/1 Busy Bay, Newton Blossom, Spot The Lady, 150/1 Getupintime.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Midsummer Magic is bred to appreciate this sort of test but for whatever reason she didn’t last home at Huntingdon in December and preference is for SPEED BONNIE BOAT (nap) who was out of her depth at Doncaster last month but has less to prove at this level now facing a stiffer stamina test. Hurdling newcomer Tokahy is also respected.[EMW]
Speed Bonnie Boat has leapfrogged into favouratism and 7/4 – quite a feat given fav is a McCoy mount
Only 5 horses under 33/1 -interesting
420 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Kilburn, 5/1 Lord Theo, 11/2 Herbert Crescent, 8/1 Bobski, Ermine Grey, Fine Ruler, 9/1 Moayed, 10/1 Ede´s Dot Com, Jo´Burg, 14/1 Diego Rivera, Seneschal, 16/1 Wrighty Almighty.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HERBERT CRESCENT did well to get as close as he did after blowing the start last time and gets the marginal vote ahead of Kilburn and Lord Theo.[DM]
WRighty Almighty again all red at the betting site and 7/1 nearly across the board
430 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Orchard House, 3/1 Marigolds Way, 7/2 Floradora Do, 8/1 Quaddick Lake, 12/1 Ar Nos Na Gaoithe, Justabout, Sovereign Spirit, 16/1 Fortification, Slickdalay.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: One that appeals is MARIGOLDS WAY, who loves fast ground, possesses a willing attitude and will relish this return to a more suitable trip.[BDO]
Quaddick :Lake is now 4/1 in places
440 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Back Nine, 3/1 Rydal Park, 9/2 Caveman, 6/1 Hemington, 10/1 Shammy Buskins, 16/1 Ashgreen, 20/1 Armoury House, Imperial Dream, 25/1 Cassia Heights, 33/1 Cash In Hand.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Caveman is respected but BACK NINE and Rydal Park are proven at this level and an unsettled weather forecast tips the balance in favour of the top one.[AWJ]
Rydal PArk has leapfrogged into 7/4 fav
500 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Fourpointone, 11/4 The Pious Prince, 4/1 Vibe, 6/1 Classic Clover, 7/1 Alcatras, 14/1 Clifden Boy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Couldn’t be bullish about any of these but at least FOURPOINTONE stays well and is proven at this level over fences.[BDO]
The Pious Prince a leapfrogger into 5/4 favouratism
530 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Alfie Spinner, Penyfan Dawn, 9/2 Over The Hill, 8/1 Give Me A Chance, 10/1 Fly Bury Star, 12/1 Capital City, 33/1 Canshebemine,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest bumper that can go to PENYFAN DAWN, who shaped with encouragement on his introduction at Worcester and has since joined the all-conquering Paul Nicholls.[BDO]
Bumper with 3 under 20/1 – hopefully still 3 the place – fav now odds on 8/11
Bumpers are like maidens – there can be surprises but the market looks indicative of a good place only opp on the fav
550 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Eastern Aria, 5/1 Black N Brew, Brer Rabbit, 6/1 Sgt Roberts, True Britannia, 13/2 Diamond Twister, 8/1 Mutually Mine, 10/1 Hold The Bucks, 16/1 Squad.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Despite still being a maiden after 11 starts, there’s a lot to like about the consistent BLACK N BREW who is better off with True Britannia on their C&D form in January and appears to have improved in two outings upped to this sort of trip. It’s also hard to strike a firm line through the likes of Eastern Aria, Sgt Roberts and Mutually Mine in an open race.[SB]
Squad 10/1 in places
720 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Highly Regal, 4/1 Hawaana, 5/1 Gazboolou, 13/2 Sofia´s Star, 8/1 Hucking Hero, Magic Rush, Millfield, 25/1 Dinner Date.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HIGHLY REGAL (nap) has proved a revelation this year and can continue his good run in a race in which solid recent form is thin on the ground. Gazboolou and Magic Rush appeal most of the rest.[GN]
Fav hardened into 7/4 but multiple handicap winner
750 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Pedasus, 5/1 Seek N´ Destroy, 11/2 Negotiation, 13/2 Perfect Affair, 10/1 Time Medicean, 12/1 Secret Hero, Woodlark Island, 14/1 Azharia, Danies Boy, L´Arco Baleno, 16/1 Rebel Woman, Sadaska, 20/1 Cape Melody, 25/1 Do Be Brave.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An open maiden which might look different once the market sorts itself out, but as things stand NEGOTIATION might be worth chancing to make a winning debut with none of his more-experienced rivals having shown form out of the ordinary. Pedasus and Seek N’ Destroy appeal most of that contingent, along with Perfect Affair.[GN]
Pedasus now 13/8 in places – a significant mover? A big field maiden though
820 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Phoenix Flight, 9/2 Eseej, Soundbyte, 7/1 Clear Reef, Right Stuff, 8/1 Imperial Harry, 14/1 Aphrodisia, Wait For The Light.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Eseej having more to do now up against a possible rival for the pacemaking role anyway, and Phoenix Flight always vulnerable to one that throws down the gauntlet, this can go to SOUNDBYTE who was improving fast at the end of last year and almost certainly has more to give. Right Stuff also has the form to get involved.[GN]
Phoenix flight now 7/4 – would be interesting to see how these ones perform – Aphrodisia 10/1 in places
850 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Good Buy Dubai, 9/2 Strikemaster, 5/1 Spring Quartet, 7/1 Soul Singer, 8/1 Screaming Brave, 9/1 Alittlemoreflair, 10/1 Fleur De´Lion, Guilin, 16/1 Sermons Mount, 20/1 Wahan, 25/1 Mekong Miss, 33/1 Ermyn Lodge.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Poor fare – Soul Singer the only previous winner in the line-up – and not a race that can be tackled with any confidence. The betting may be helpful, especially with Guilin, and GOOD BUY DUBAI is a tentative selection.[FC]
Wahan 10/1 market mover
PLACE ONLY SHORTLISTERS
230 TAUNTON – very interesting as 4 horses only under 20/1 Art trend is 1.12 and Kings Alchemist is 1.35 to place. I am not taken too much by Art Trend’s form, but perhaps can view this race from a probability perspective on the assumption the over 20/1 horses run as they are priced – marked drop in class for Art Trend perhaps a reason behind his odds on favouratism
330 TAUNTON – Looking at the betting forecast, there were only 3 horses under 16/1 – 2 of those are now non runners leaving Sulas LEgend the odds on fav. The other 2 were originally priced at 16/1 and 25/1 and are now 5/2 and 5/1 ( a direct reaction to 2 market leaders leaving)
Looks an outstanding place only chance – one horse to beat and 1.16 a nice price . Of course the horse could fall, or, as with Kicks for free, finish 3rd of 3, but he won last time out and has a decent chance of beating just the one
ONE A DAY
Both the above have strong cases made for them, but at the prices, Sulas Legend has just the one horse to beat to place at athe bigger 1.16.
There are some very interesting market movers today too, but this is THE probability bet of the day. One to beat and a clear round hopefully -question mark over the horse’s jumping, but LEster LEaps In looks against it today. Hopefully Sulas jumping remains – he did fall 2nd last race so I personally will be monitoring in running .