Well MAster Somerville was a runner – he didn’t have an SP when I wrote the blog so analysis there was wrong. Canalturn won well and the place came in.
The Chepstow race was affected by a late short priced non runner in Connack – Elevith Echo 2nd there at 2/1, not an each way price.
An HTB selection in a seller – would place but NOT win – MArc of Brilliance
Master John unplaced
Nice lay of Sublimity, beaten by Punjabi. Cobo Bay placed so no loss there , and makes me want to go back to Guernsey!
Good to get Captain Webb beaten by a 6/1 shot at that (level stakes dutching meant he was a 5/1 winner as we had to account for stake on 2nd horse in the dutch)
Le Havre won, and I was counting my money on Nantes when they succumbed to an 85th minute equaliser – again IF in running this would have been a nice profit. Advantage Le HAvre for the Ligue 2 title
All in all a good day for me with Conduit the icing on the cake.
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Conquisto, 3/1 Yathreb, 8/1 Allied Powers, 10/1 Dramatic Solo, 12/1 Carry On Cleo, 14/1 Indian Days, 50/1 Saturday Boy
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Yathreb failed to produce on course what he’d evidently shown at home last season but that means he starts handicap life on a workable mark. However, CONQUISTO (nap) is very solid, having followed home the progressive Jaser on his comeback and pulled a long way clear of the rest.[GW]
A 2 horse race in prospect? Early prices indicate as much with 11/10 and 11/4. It’s far too early for the Betfair market to be fully formed, but at current prices, level stakes on Conquisto and Yathreb leaves a big profit on Yathreb and small gain on Conquisto.
Because of race time, this bet will be at the behest of late withdrawals and any market moves unforeseen as I write.
215 – the link is below – looks a 2 horse race -I will back Waffle (currently 2.12) for £10, Rayvin MAd (currently 2.56) for £10 and Classic Blade (16) for £3 -5 furlongs – small losses on most likely winners and nice profit if there’s a surprise
350 – price gapper in a listed race looks nailed on to place. If still odds against, would be a worthy investment.
425 – Harry the Hawk – won last twice – top RPR (although RPR indicates a tight bunch) -9/14 tips – 11/8 – – – 6/1 currently. Course is an unknown – 10 day distance winner – jockey never ridden him before – looks to be claiming 5 lbs
Again must be a place for me alas given jockey
500 – Warringah and World Time each way look the value against Tartan Bearer
card meeting – www.racingpost.co.uk
150 – looks a race of 2 halves – those numbered highest look out of it so best to concentrate on 1-7. Each way 3 the place so any choice has 4 to beat to place .Commander Kev each way for me at current 4/1
330 – HErald angel at 11/4 – bit of a drift – the hint that the horse may be worth taking on?
Conditional jockeys mean I will speculate – Fast Fred each way
begins with another specialist distance race, and with Garde Champetre a non runner for Enda Bolger, this skewed my dutch last time. Today sees the return of the above named and although a ridiulouse betting medim from a logic point of view (24 runners – 3 miles) I will back Garde and Headsontheground each way –
420 – looks a 4 horse affair with Franchoek the jolly and Quevega near. Franchoek to place is the obvious one, although a dutch using fairbot on the 4 horses to provide and equalised profit may be the way
Ripon one to avoid but a good card to play for live market followers I would guess.
A tricky but high quality card
140 – the straight 8 and Poquelin each way could place at least
320 Royal County Star each way
735 – toss of a coin – One night in Paris to win – 2 horse race and I was taken by Spotlight comment – “looks the safest option by some distance”
835 – maiden fillies – got to lay the fav haven’t you at 1/8 – will win no doubt but if these fillies have their minds on getting Westlife tickets or a new handbag, that may be just enough
If you click on the course above, it should bring up the Racing Post Card
1245 – time to get the under 2.5 goal cash machine working again? Chelsea must win. Again they are at home, and if we follow the pattern that you all know by now, Chelsea DO NOT lose at home. This would point to a non trading lay of Man Utd (at 3.45). All sequences do end but this one is so entrenched I think they players believe they just will not lose at home.
Half time score 0-0, 1-0, and 0-1 can be dutched with small loss on 0-0
Remember those football questions. Liverpool today will be the ideal example – wholesale changes afoot with Champions LEague mid week ( will this affect United v Chelsea I wonder?) Birmingham’s poor display at villa was unexpected but at home they seem a different animal. Under 2.5 goals again for me to trade – hopefully a tight early game and the poor Villa performance can be forgotten
I will lay the HAmmers at home today – still injury ravaged – still in holiday mode – the 3 musketeers shoudl nick a goal or 2 for King Kev
Kilmarnock at home – enhance odds by half time/full time betting? Gretna must be opposed
Are Caen a bogey team for Lyon? Won last 2 encounters. At 1/3 Lyon look layable, albeit without too much enthusiasm and confidence and stakes reduced to reflect that. BUT bogey teams can turn the form on its head.