Another interesting conundrum with the BRazil match – when to get out? – it’s time v profit – highest price was 2.5 from 1.75 start and Brazil scored, perhaps inevitably. I got out at 1.95 for a free bet on Brazil.
That’s the conundrum – wondering when the next goal will come or when to trade out. Of course, enhanced odds fanatics could have backed Brazil at enhanced odds any time before the 72nd minute goal for evens about Brazil, an odds on shot at the start.
Elsewhere in the footy, the Argies won 2-0 away to Egypt, and unders was very comfortable in the England game, although you could have easily traded out in plenty of time before the first goal as the odds reduced to 1.25
The Kempton race was between the 2 market principles with Uncle Eli 3rd at 10/1 – a definite return with the bookies which would have accounted for some lost stake on Launde if you went the each way route.
Mount Oscar 3rd -the place only break even bet would have lost nothing. The dutch of the first 3 would have lost nothing – better than losing stake money though.
You see why I didn’t do You do the Math – Mr Horton in the saddle – haven’t got a clue who he is in another hunter chase where a shortie goes down.
Fire up the band won – the reverse forecast dutch scuppered by 20/1 outsider finishing 2nd.
Handicap top weight lays a little hit and miss – came back won but Blackheath lost for the 3/1 and unders, but another winner in Bonnie Rock from 2 for the 5/1 category – is the handicap top weight system suddenly returning its potential as a backing system? Quite obviously it is the 3/1’s and under that allow for short prices and short liabilities. Will there be enough short prices losing? Blackheath augured well – unplaced.
Still, I will monitor as there’s no money at stake and see if it can replicate the 46 wins and 8 losses of year start as a potential hot lay system.
3 into 1 – came back wins by a head – you already know about You do the Math and Distant Sun 2nd at 5/4 beaten a head – that’s 5 2nds in the space of 2 days!
AYR – HEAVY GROUND
240
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Companero, 7/2 Spitfire Sortie, 11/2 Manadam, 12/1 The Depot Bar, 20/1 Sensible Jockser, 33/1 Mister Nelson, 100/1 Moneamon, Wee Sean
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: COMPANERO looked a horse to follow when successful at Carlisle last time and it would be a surprise if he cannot strike again under a penalty. Spitfire Sortie and Manadam can fight out the minor honours.
hint of a price gap – horse proven on heavy/soft – top RPR by some distance – “it would be a surprise if he cannot strike again” – postdata selection – query regarding distance –
Companero
Unbeaten in three Irish points and off the mark at the second attempt for this yard at Carlisle last time when galloping his rivals into the ground; shorter trip unlikely to inconvenience and looks the one to beat.
1.5 on Betfair is perhaps too short in heavy ground but his chance is there for all to see. What appeals to me is to include Companero at 1.5, Spitfire Sortie at 6.8 and Manadam at 8.8 with stakes £18, £7 and £6 – this time taking a £4 loss on Companero in order to enhance returns on the other 2 – potential profit with them of £15 and £20
EXETER
355
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Pur De Sivola, 13/8 Oceanos Des Obeaux, 7/1 Keepthedreamalive, 50/1 Istron Bay, Proud Peer, 66/1 Lancaster Sound, 100/1 Bay Mouse
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The outcome here may well hinge on whether PUR DE SIVOLA has had his confidence dented by his heavy fall last time. If he’s mentally unscathed, he can outclass Oceanos Des Obeaux
Simple level stakes on the front 2 loads profit on Oceanos with a hint that Pur may have felt the effect of a bad fall last time out
Only 7 runners but if you want to chance Keep thedreamalive to take advantage of any mishaps between the 2 main contenders at 11/1 he represents a good enough each way alternative.
HANDICAP TOP WEIGHTS AT EXETER
320 – Macmar 5 lbs ahead of 2nd highest weighted BUT too big a price to lay – place only lay?15 in the win market -3.7 in the place only market
850 Wolves – Most definitely -another potential lay? – 9.2 win market, 2.14 place market – these prices will change given the time of the race.
3 into 1
5 2nd placers in 2 days is really frustrating
425 Exeter Innocent Rebel
425 Exeter – innocent Rebel
Another contender in a hunter chase and you know what I think about unknown jockeys in these races!
425 Exeter Innocent Rebel
Chris Beek from www.kachinaracing.co.uk has put forward 2 horses as good bets (so he tells me) in Dancing Abbie (750 Wolves) and Party Boss (920 Wolves)
425 Exeter Innocent Rebel
A poor card today
FOOTY
Aldershot firing at present and,although lower league betting is not my forte, 1.66 about over 2.5 goals could pay off – NOTE – not in running so this is a straight bet. Droylsden lasted for some time against Grays recently but the goals all came 2nd half. Aldershot need to assert at the head of the league so if Droylsden score we should be assured of over 2.5 goals.