Nice win for Mary Josephine at Dundalk, Prince Erik for the Weld/Smullen combo (watch out for them on fancied horses this flat season in Ireland), Indian Skipper, Music Box Express. They all popped in at decent prices. Not now lewis unplaced, and Tvara did nothing in a 0-45 classified stakes – poor horses where market moves are perhaps not to be taken on trust.
3 into 1 – a 2nd and a win – ok.
Le Havre did the business at a nice 11/10 away from home 3-1 capping off an excellent day. THis is a tactic you can use – look at teams playing each other and check out how they have performed, say, against the same opponents in previous matches. It may give a clue as to what is expected and is a kind of form analysis for football.
Bookie benefit today as usual on a Saturday
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Delightfully, 5/2 Just Beware, 6/1 Rosie´s Glory, 14/1 Queenlaya, 33/1 Miss Champagne, Wensleydale Web, 50/1 Florida Diamond
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If ex-French DELIGHTFULLY can’t make short work of these modest rivals she’s not going to have much of a future as a hurdler.[DH]
it’s always interesting when it seems that a horse must win really to continue in the hurdling game and if you are taken by Spotlight, then that’s the case for Delightfully. BUT this is a claiming hurdle- I will be speculative as usual and a straight £10 level stakes on the front 2 produces a nice payout on Just Beware and a £2 loss on Delightfully. CAUTION – as a claiming hurdle we may have a surprise but I feel this is worth a punt.
1.76 on Delightfully – £14, and £10 on Just beware at current 3.5 will produce a break even and not a loss on Delightfully
There are a couple of perceived 2 horse races in the 300 and 545 and if you’re convinced that ,yes, this should involve the front 2, then play around as I did in the above example and select one to chose with perhaps a break even /slight loss on the other.
With 3 the place in the 300 race, we will get unnaturally inflated odds for the other horses -perhaps place only dutching on Island Key and Never Ask at 3.25 and 3.65 -break even if one places – if something happens and both place, it’s a nice pay out
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Brave Prospector, 11/1 Game Hunt, Moothir, 12/1 Carpe Diem, Louis Seffens, Savannah Poppy, 14/1 Harrison George, 20/1 Centenerola, 33/1 Bilboa, Spirit Of A Nation, 100/1 Grey Command, Your Golf Travel .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BRAVE PROSPECTOR has to win this if he’s to justify entries in the English and Irish 2,000 Guineas and his soft-ground Group 3 fourth last year sets a good standard for the newcomers to aim at
Significant price gapper – top RPR – top topspeed – postdata selection – 12 from 14 tips – looks solid – takes a drop in class
NEGATIVES – 154 day absence – untried at the course –
Another horse who MUST win (like Delightfully earlier) . A poor price but worthy of support, particularly to follow in running and lay off in increments.
High class racing at Kempton and it is the Class 1 listed race I’ll focus on
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Kandidate, 11/4 Diamond Tycoon, 4/1 Great Hawk, 6/1 Spice Route, 8/1 Grand Passion, 10/1 Illustrious Blue, 16/1 Pur Sucre, 50/1 Impeller .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Last spring Diamond Tycoon looked one of the most fascinating horses in training and it will be interesting to see if he can pick up the threads after his absence, but his stamina for today’s trip has to be taken on trust and preference is for the rock-solid credentials of KANDIDATE
As usual, the betting forecast for higher quality events should be more accurate .
We have an each way angle with the straight 8 and Diamond Tycoon at 2/1 in the early price market. Of more interest is the “rock solid credentails” of Kandidate – 7/2 is an enticing price and an each way prospect for me.
As ever, none of the horses can be readily dismissed given the quality of the race.
Battle-hardened veteran who has won both his starts here and suggested he was as good as ever when runner-up in Group 3 in Dubai on return last month; down to Listed level for first time since 2006 and likely to prove tough nut to crack for in-form yard.
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Gone Hunting, 7/2 Sub Prime, 4/1 Asaint Needs Brass, 8/1 Imperial Skylight, 10/1 Grand Honour, Old Father Zieten, 14/1 Comanche Trail, Dr Wintringham, 16/1 Buckle Up, 20/1 Multi Tasker .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The betting should provide a few clues to the ability of these ten newcomers. Bill Turner proved once again his talent for readying cheaply bought newcomers when Sally’s Dilemma won the Brocklesby and he rates GONE HUNTING her equal. The low draw is not ideal but she is likely to know her job better than most and is preferred to Sub Prime.[FC]
Multi tasker currently 10/1 in a debutant maiden whose betting market will tell all. Again, this 10/1 has to be replicated at the off. If the price drifts then it’s a no bet. One non runner at a potential 10/1 should not be the cause of this price cut for Multi tasker
NAD AL SHEEBA
A cracking card with Curlin the stand out here
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Blackat Blackitten, 11/4 Diamond Stripes, Elusive Warning, 12/1 Baharah, Golden Arrow, 20/1 Barcola, 33/1 Aleutian, Green Coast, Rosberg, Zakocity, 40/1 Halkin, 50/1 Brave Tin Soldier, 66/1 Jet Express, Watch What Happens, 100/1 Don Renato .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Saeed Bin Suroor has won this six times since 1996 and he has a strong hand with progressive ELUSIVE WARNING and Blackat Blackitten. The pair finished first and second in the Burj Nahaar over C&D last time and it’s the strong-travelling Elusive Warning, who had his first run over this trip that day and is the most unexposed runner in the field, that is fancied to confirm placings. The other danger in a race lacking strength in depth is Diamond Stripes, who drops in trip but looks sure to go well on his UAE debut if handling this surface
3 horse race in prospect? Again I can level stakes dutch the front 3 and reduce the stake on Diamond stripes to leave a break even on that one with profit on the Godolphin pair Blackcat and Elusive
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Literato, 9/2 Creachadoir, Darjina, 10/1 Admire Aura, Vodka, 12/1 Finsceal Beo, 14/1 Floral Pegasus, Linngari, 16/1 Archipenko, Bullish Luck, 20/1 Majestic Roi, 25/1 Niconero, 33/1 Lord Admiral, Notional, Seachange, 50/1 Jay Peg.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A tremendous race in prospect and, as has been the main theme at this Carnival, Saeed Bin Suroor has a strong hand with Literato and CREACHADOIR. Frankie Dettori rides the former but, as he does seem a better horse with give in the ground, preference is for his stablemate, who is well suited by a sound surface. He turned in a career-best effort on only his third run for the yard when nailed by the much improved Good Ba Ba in the Hong Kong Mile, in which he had Darjina (worth a try over this trip) and Floral Pegasus (solid each-way shot) just behind and, as a half-brother to Arc runner-up Youmzain, he should be equally effective over this trip. Japan took this last year with Admire Moon and Admire Aura and Vodka are other each-way options to consider
CREACHADOIR each way at 5/1 with McEvoy on board may give a good account in this highly competitive race
BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Curlin, 7/1 Jalil, 12/1 Asiatic Boy, 14/1 Happy Boy, Vermilion, 20/1 Premium Tap, 25/1 A P Arrow, 33/1 Kocab, 40/1 Gloria De Campeao, 50/1 Lucky Find, Well Armed, 66/1 Great Hunter, 100/1 Sway Yed.
Wide draw a concern for Curlin? Hmmm could this open up an each way candidate. A talking horse has been Jalil, with some good articles on the horse in the Racing post this week.
Soft ground at Newbury
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Crescent Island, 4/1 Quizzene, 5/1 First Point, Psychiatrist, 20/1 Red Admiral, 25/1 Mistress To No One, 50/1 Mix N Match, 100/1 Glowing Dawn, 200/1 Seahorse Point ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The three form principals have a point to prove after failing to build on a promising first try over hurdles so not a race that can be approached with much confidence. Course winner CRESCENT ISLAND’s ability to handle the ground will stand him in good stead
4 horse race – each way angle? Psychiatrist each way may give us a run if soft ground affects the fav’s performance
A very tight market indeed here, 7 horses between 6 and 8 ! I’ll ignore the favs and take a lucky dip on Double Ells each way.
3 into 1
420 Stratofrd Tacinja
720 Wolves Brave hawk
A huge number of very important games this afternoon. AND remember the questions – any important games up coming which may affect performance today – hmmm – how about the Champions LEague mid week for Man Utd and Arsenal in particular. If you are taken by the influence mid week Champions League games may have on today’s performances then speculative lays of short priced favs or backing Bolton and Aston Villa at big odds MIGHT pay off
old Firm derby at 1230 kicks off the day
RAngers have scored 2 or more in their last 6 matches while Celtic have struggled to keep clean sheets and I get the feeling the momentum is with the Rangers side. home advantage could be crucial?
I was going to look at the bookings market BUT it’s heavy odds on – doh!
Correct score 0-0 (break even), 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 looks worth chancing I feel. I can’t see Rangers not scoring and don’t think Celtic can get 2 goals. A bit speculative but a repeat of 3-0 will be a cracker
Laying the draw at 3.5 may be a good way in with trading in mind. This is a must win for both sides.
Hamburg at 2.1 half time/full time – a good enhanced odds bet?
I’ll lay MAn City away to Brum today as i think Birmingham are strong at home and have more to play for than City whose season has petered out a bit
Bolton against top 4 sides have lost by 2 clear goals recently – is this an angle in?
Arsenal – 4 draws and a loss is simply NOT good enough for a team who were supposed to be challenging for the Premiership. Which Arsenal will turn up? – the Champions LEague team or the stuttering permiership side?
Arsenal have the upper hand in head to heads. Is it time for Adebayour to return to goal scoring form – 2.9 is a decent enough price.
Arse/Arse ; Draw/Arse and Draw/Bolton look appealing as a dutch for the half time/full time results, break even on Arsenal/Arsenal
Under 2.5 goals Derby v Fulham? Worth trading if the match is in running – distinct improvement from Derby and a Fulham team who are not that free scoring
I’ll lay West Ham away to Sunderland here today – the Hammers have nothing to play for while Sunderland simply must keep their excellent home record.
West brom over 2.5 goals 1/3 at home – the top scorers in the Championship should add to the tally today
Gretna sacked 8 players mid week and St Mirren are not normally betting propositions – 1.87 half time/full time St Mirren?
St Mirren are hardly free scoring so, despite Getna’s turmoil there is an element of speculation about the halftime/full time but the odds are decent enough
Over 2.5 goals in the Man Utd game may enhance the odds. Again it’s tradeable and bumps up the 2/7 about United
CONCLUSION – far far too many bets today so i will draw up a shortlist of the ones I feel have the potential to return more confidently.