Well Bantry Bere and Bertie May dutch was successful although I didn’t get involved in this novice hurdle event.
Kornati Kid won for the dutch in which I included Dancing Dasi, at single figure odds from 14/1 in the betting forecast – it was actually a decent return this race
Well done to Theatre Diva although I chickened out and went with the place only – I should have had more faith in the excellent Paddy Brennan.
Now the 350 was won by fly in the ointment Nemetan, BUT Nemetan was 12/1 in the betting forecast opening up at 5/1 and SIMPLY had to be included. The key words I used yesterday were” current betfair prices” – you can see the ideal can’t you – the live market near the off is key – Silver Ingot went the other way and drifted so was left out of my dutch. Needless to say the 16/1 system bet Nematan won
Bold Policy came 3rd which is what I hoped for. The dutch on Bussell up and Salt of the earth came in with no bother.
Glenridding won albeit at a very short price because of the non runner market leader.
Cameroon won 3-0 so the half time/full time came in. With 2 goals coming by 30 minutes the over 3.5 goal trade was on albeit only a small price movement.
TUTENKAMEN, SPHINX, CROCODILES, PHAROAHS, ZAMBIA GAVE YOUR BOYS ONE HELL OF A ,ERM, DRAW
Yes the mighty football collossus Zambia sneaked a draw in the 90th minute and the mug punter acca came in as I laid Zambia rather than let the greedmonster chose Egypt to hike the odds. The worrying game was the Chelsea game 1-0 for an extended period of time is not good on the heart!. But ,yet again, Chelsea DO NOT LOSE AT HOME – a pattern I mentioned in the last newsletter as some way to help you get an angle into the matches. The correct score came in – 1-0 for a decentish return.
Overs in the Stuttgart match was never in doubt – final score 2-3!.
Well, yet another sequence ends doesn’t it? The 2-1 scoreline between Liverpool and the Hammers ended in 2 ways – West Ham won and they won by an under 2.5 goal scoreline (1-0). I hope you can see how sequencing can help you come to a decision. Laying Liverpool half time/full time came in and 3.4 was a reasonable price for the lay. Odds on away to the Hammers – that’s a bit optimistic isn’t it!
Well, Juventus and Inter Milan -I had to chuckle – 2-1 within 31 minutes – when I get em wrong, I get em wrong!
NAD AL SHEEBA
First meeting inalphabetical order
530
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Blackat Blackitten, 7/1 Azarole, Vortex, 8/1 Quorum, 10/1 Opportunist, Skywards, 14/1 Bo Bid, Gongidas, Montalba, Salt Track, 20/1 Akona Matata, 25/1 Fleeting Shadow, Naipe Marcado.
A noticeable price gap here for Godolphin’s Blackat Blackitten. Place only could be a good bet some but a dirt debutant
SOUTHWELL
150
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Hieroglyph, 5/2 Duke Of Touraine, 4/1 Contessina, 7/1 Park Royal, 8/1 Natural Rhythm, 12/1 Henry James .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest handicap which can go the way of DUKE OF TOURAINE on his first try on this surface for a yard which has enjoyed plenty of success on Fibresand over the years. He looks the type to make a better 3yo and does not have much to find on his latest fourth in a Wolverhampton nursery in November.[AC]
I can only go by prices at time of writing (ie we may get another market move like Nemetan nearer the off that I cannot possible predict ! ) but as things stand, BEtfair prices show Heiroglyph at 3.5, Contessina at 3.65 and Duke of Touraine at 4.3.
At these current prices, we can back these 3 to level stakes and profit if one of them wins. Further we are covering 1/2 te field. It must be said though that none of the 6 can be safely discounted with the outsider only 16 but probability wise we have the market leaders on our side.
This kind of dutch bet is open to market fluctuation between now and race time so bear that in mind.
THURLES
– HEAVY GROUND
Possible lay of Jimmy Ber in the 205 because of big field, maiden hurlde and heavy ground – again one to monitor in running as the price may well increase above that at which we lay pre race.
Elsewhere with heavy ground I am loathe to get involved.
TOWCESTER – SOFT
Again soft ground is immeidaltey offputting.
Novice hurdle first race, followed by a conditional jockeys handicap hurdle – hmmmm!
230
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Jaunty Flight, 6/1 Cortesia, 7/1 Loom, 9/1 Baseball Ted, 12/1 Avant Gardiste, Lupita, 16/1 Carrig An Uisce, Earlsfield Raider, Sir Peter, Tiegs, 25/1 Baron Romeo, Primitive Academy, 33/1 Rawaabet, 50/1 Carly Bay, 66/1 Midnight Spirit .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Loom is worth noting in the betting but JAUNTY FLIGHT (nap) was a very impressive winner last week and connections will be keen to strike again before her revised handicap mark comes into effect.[
Jaunty flight at 1.45 currently to place could be a way in here ( still the niggle of soft ground though) GAined an impressive win on heavy last time out – I always look for horses who are being raced before their revised handicap mark takes effect.
WINCANTON
140 – with Mick Fitz rolling back the years it was tempting to get involved in Fiddling again – another potential price gapper but the big field is offputting (27 runners) as is the fact this is a mares only event and they’ll have their minds on handbags and shopping
WOLVERHAMPTON
Nothing interests me here at all
FOOTY
Check out the draw price on Angola v Tunisia – 4/5 at Ladbrokes- unbelievable scenes – conspiracy theorists will be out in force today. I have no insight as yet as the Racing Post’s sport pages are not up online at this time so I can’t get a background into the game ( they were spot on the last time the draw was priced up ) and perhaps a contrarian view could be taken
But, looking at the table, Tunisia and Angola share 4 points , with the other 2 teams on 1 point. So by drawing they will secure a point each and progress into the next stages. If one of Angola or Tunisia go for the win then they open themselves up to be over taken.
Simply put, a game to avoid!
WIth Barcelona v Villareal the only other game of interest this is the Spanish Cup and I cannot be sure of the attitude of the coaches .
A very quiet day’s betting ends an excellent month for me ( I back my selections!) A very non commital day on the horse front too- I only bet when I’m sure I have an outstanding chance of a return, and recent calles like the Arsenal game have left me in the black with no need to bet for the sake of it