3 out of 3 yesterday – Blue Tomato consented to win a race after 4 2nds and the money for $475,000 Boscage proved decisive. Shaktar also won 2-1 so plenty of opportunity for the one a day
Now I woldn’t normally entertain a maiden debutant who has never run on the allweather but I built up a good case – a $475,000 purchase so I’m guessing this horse won’t end up in banded stakes races. Fanning/Johnston know their onions. 2 clear outsiders at huge odds reducing a field to 3 and Boscage well backed all day.
Izset Star another market mover sub 4/1 who won at 4/1!
Racing starts at 210pm, I’m doing this at 1130am so be ware the market movers will not strictly adhere to my system ( I usually try in the hour before the first race)
220 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Steady Tiger, 3/1 Magellan Straits, 7/2 Ockey De Neulliac, 6/1 Lord Larsson, 13/2 Reindeer Dippin, 66/1 Classic Henri, Ginger´s Lad, 100/1 Hathamore, What´s Occurrin, 150/1 Right Benny.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All the three previous winners are well thought of by their trainers but preference is for STEADY TIGER who did well to overcome a two-year absence to make a successful hurdling debut over this C&D in January. There should be plenty more to come from him and he may even be able to hold his own in slightly better company.[PJ]
5 horses sub 100/1! 1.17 , 1.51 , 1.8 , 2.48 , 2.6 for the first 5
230 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Giles Cross, 9/4 Our Bomber Harris, 3/1 Vagrant Emperor, 8/1 Patton, 25/1 John Fenton, 40/1 Merriott´s Oscar, 66/1 Dont Even Ask, 100/1 Incentivise, Tanner Towers, 200/1 Classic Eclipse.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some interesting contenders and though GILES CROSS has not been seen for some time, he boasts the best form and can pick up where he left off in December. Our Bomber Harris is an obvious threat but the most danger may come from Vagrant Emperor.[JN]
1 at 6/4 , 2 at 9/4 and a 10/1 shot all under 33/1 – 1.32 , 1.26 , 1.36 , 2.68 the front 4 to place
Ruby Walsh of obvious interest on Our Bomber Harris. This is one of those races which can be called wrong. Will the first 3 in the betting forecast be the first 3 home. ? If not, then which will falter (clue – probably the one I select will come 4th!)
250 NEWC
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Zaffarella, 5/1 Beau Largesse, 7/1 Ardesia, 8/1 Longdale, 9/1 Bumble Rose, Clueless, 10/1 Cashmere Jack, 14/1 Oscar Trial, Tuatara Bay, 16/1 Optimum, 20/1 Fair Spin,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ZAFFARELLA (nap) still has plenty going for her despite the 12lb rise for her Ayr win, though it will be interesting to see what Bumble Rose can do off her lowly mark now handicapping.[EMW]
Price gap enhanced in live market – 7/4 – – – 6/1 BUT conditional jockeys – 1.43 to place
310 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Boundless Prospect, 3/1 Dancing Lyra, 5/1 Johnston´s Baby, 7/1 Maria Antonia, Ming Vase, 14/1 Stockman, 25/1 Shadow Jumper, Smetana.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Boundless Prospect appeals more than Dancing Lyra of the market leaders but he’s the type that needs things to drop just right and preference is for MING VASE, who won this last year. True, he has something to find at these weights but he’ll be very well suited by the return to middle distances and his stable has been on the mark at this course in recent weeks. [RY]
A class 6 seller but a huge move for Boundless PRospect into 10/11 in places – significant?
The straight 8 means 3 places
Superbly consistent placed form and only beaten a head last time out 1.16 to place
330 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Natoumba, 6/1 Samsbro, 7/1 Notabotheronme, Sandhurst, 8/1 Wild Ground, 11/1 Present M´Lord, 12/1 Victory Gunner, 14/1 Lysander, What A Scientist, 16/1 Ibberton, Plum Pudding, 20/1 Autumn Red, Teeming Rain, Topless, 25/1 Crank Hill.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty to consider in a wide-open contest but the relatively unexposed SANDHURST could provide the answer, having run well over shorter trips twice this season. Samsbro is next best.[JN]
Crank Hill 12/1 in places
440 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 More Time Tim, 7/1 Exit Smiling, Intabih, Silver Hotspur, 10/1 Ours, Princely Hero, 14/1 Mozayada, 20/1 Transmission, 33/1 Crocodile Bay.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although he’s up in grade the one that stands out is progressive MORE TIME TIM (nap), who has racked up a quickfire C&D three timer and was value for more than the winning margin in an apprentice handicap last week. He’s only slightly higher in the weights and it’s significant that in-form Ross Atkinson, who was in the saddle last week, can now claim his full 5lb allowance. [RY]
Transmission 14/1 1.31 for More Time Tim to place
More time Tim is, yes you’ve guessed, a multiple handicap winner but he’s priced to win again. THere was a multiple handicap winner last week who was priced NOT to win ( I flagged him up here and he lost)
The price gap remains with More Time Tim which hints that he will be competitive again today
9 runners mean 3 the place
520 NEWC
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Fridaythorpe, 5/2 Vivona Hill, 7/2 Bishops Heir, River Music, 14/1 Ceasar´s Return, 25/1 I´Ll Be Frank, 33/1 Its Beyond Me, 50/1 Stanley Hall, 100/1 Landofgreenginger.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Probably quite a warm contest. Vivona Hill was once mentioned for Aintree, while Fridaythorpe is a serious contender if he has recovered from a hardish race on soft on his debut but, if he takes after his sister Turbo Linn, there could be more to come from BISHOPS HEIR.{PJ]
Bumper 4 under double figure odds
ONE A DAY SHORTLIST
220 NEWCASTLE – a 10 runner race – 5 horses are 100/1 or bigger and can (hopefully) be dimissed, turning this into something of a probability race with 5 reaslistically vying for 3 places.
Always worth checking the ground if soft is mentioned in the ebtting forecast. The main RP site shows Good to soft (soft in places)
Steady Tiger has won 2 of his last 2 in heavy and soft ground so conditions should pose no problems. Condon was on him for his last win (a good sign) – a course and distance winner ( I’m trying to build up evidence that he will place) – the problem is Lord Larrson and Reindeer Dippin cannot be readily dismissed.
310 STHL – I am taken by the apparent move for Boundless Prospect into 10/11 in places now, but this is low grade stuff – a class 6 seller.
3 horses are 20/1 or bigger with one of those 3 at 66/1 or bigger. Can these be discounted?
A course winner placed in all of his last 6 races, beaten a head last time out into 2nd
PAtrick Donaghy has riccen 5 of the last 6 so knows the horse and what’s required
440 STHL – More Time Tim in another conundrum race – multiple handicap winners eventually lose – it’s inevitable, but it’s calling when they’ll lose and the live market is not predicting a loss today
A course and distance winner, Ross Atkinson (apprentice) retains the ride an invokes his 5 lb allowance. HE has won on the horse but still he is an apprentice!
PRice gap remains although Intabih is now 5/1 shortening the price gap.
Another concern in this 9 runner race is the fact the 2nd highest price is 12/1 , with the “outsider” at 33/1
This relays the fact that the “outsiders” are not REAL outsiders and thus cannot be confidently discounted bar Crocodile Bay perhaps.
CHance for me on Steady Tiger today
FOOTY
19:45 Genk vs Lierse 1/3 – not a game that appeals at all for me
19:45 Stevenage vs Forest Green 1/3 – beat Forest GReen 3-0 away from home last time out – a good sign? Forest GReen have drawn 4 of the last 5 Stevenage have won their last 7
The big boys are out tonight. Arsenal away to West Brom. Arsenal have drawn their last 5, with 4 consecutive 0-0’s. Surely this affords an opportunity for a goal today? Van Persie was very unlucky not to get a hattrick at the weekend and would be a good bet to score anytime for me.
From a sequencing perspective, we have the right opposition tonight for Arsenal to get back to scoring ways. (NOTE I say scoring ways rather than winning ways!)
Arsenal beat WEst Brom 1-0 with a 4 minute goal last time out at home, so expect another tight affair?
Liverpool have home advantage but have drawn 7 at home. No Torres tonight. Snderland have drawn their last 3 away -exactly what Rafa wants to see (NOT!) NO bet for me!