A great day on the backing blog on Wednesday with my first 33/1 winner on the blog – there was dancing on the streets of Guernsey believe me and the sinking of one or 2 Rocquettes ciders (highly recommended by the way) especially as I had backed it on Betfair.
So how did I do this?
Exhaustive form analysis? – NOPE
Insider contacts – NOPE
Followed the money? – NOPE
Common sense – YES!
Let me explain…
RACE TYPE – 230 Bath11 April 2007 Class 5 Maiden
Stakes for 2 year olds
DISTANCE – 5 furlongs
POINTS TO NOTE – of the 16 runners 10 were debutants
BETTING FORECAST FAVOURITE -5/1
What can I glean from the above information? Firstly, when the betting forecast prices a race up at 5/1 for the favourite, this can immediately suggest that frankly, they haven’t got a clue who will win! What does this mean for me? Well it means I can dismiss the market leaders and try some speculative betting because this looks like a minefield. It’s everything you don’t want to see as a backer – 10 debutants, the shortest distance possible and absolutely no form.
I decided here to take a chance on the 2 horses who borderlined the betting forecast between the shorter priced horses and the perceived outsiders. I noticed Vhujon at 14/1 and Blue Zenith at 20/1. In a wide open race any one of the debutants could spring a surprise and that’s exactly what happened with Vhujon winning at 33/1.
From a layers perspective taking on betting forecast favourites when they are 4/1 or over seems to pay dividends. On the first day of the Aintree meeting yesterday, I laid the 2 horses which appeared at 4/1 or greater in the Racing Post’s betting forecast – Andreas and Laouen, both of which lost . Pricing up a market leader at 4/1 indicates, usually, a wide open affair.
Since 7th April there has been 30 qualifiers all of which have lost. Something for you to mull over I think! Of course not all betting forecast favourites at 4/1 or bigger will lose their races. I like to find other mitigating circumstances such as whether the race is historically bad for favourites, or is this a race where the draw will have an adverse affect? Do the jockey and trainer have bad form at the track? Again, it comes down to common sense really.
What about the size of the field?
Again, this has been good for selecting market leaders to lay.
Since 7 April, there has been one selection a day, and they have all lost and yesterday it was Drombeag in a 27 runner hunter chase. He lost !
I’ve said it before – the art of laying, for me , is to build up a case to oppose the horse, and the evidence can come from numerous areas. Let me know if you’d like me to provide you with more information here.
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NO GETTING AWAY – IT’S NATIONAL DAY
The day my Gran becomes a hardened gambler is upon us again. Yes, she studies the form (after Countdown of course) and readies herself to empty the bookies satchels with a couple of £1 win bets on horses whose names remind her of things. This year it’s simple – Simon after her meals on wheels deliverer! And L’ami – French for the friend – easy! – Watch Simon romp home with L’ami in close attendance – she’ll be able to splash out on some rich tea biscuits should he oblige.
Well, after the week I’ve had (thank you Vhujon my son!) I shall be having a tickle on hedgehunter (again) – 3rd years on the trot – faller when well in contention in 2004, winner in 2005 and 2nd in 2006, and importantly, Ruby remains with him.
SYSTEMS SYSTEMS SYSTEMS
Well the Money Vault seems to be delivering via its refined rules, but is very much yo-yoing, as these follow the money systems generally do. Following just bank bets and not betting below 4/6 would have produced a 100+ point profit to date. Before you get too excited, I must point out that this is following every race, every day which is impractical for a lot of people, (and something glossed over in the marketing!). Those of you who have the follow the money system can perhaps adopt it to replicate the Money Vault in certain areas by applying some other rules – Email me and I’ll happily share them (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Having been given the hard sell on this piece of trading software, I am somewhat put off by the price tag £6K (ouch!) I need one Vhujon a day to pay for this. The software is certainly very good indeed but I will look to my Omnitrader at less than a tenth of the cost to help me in my exposure of the financial markets
WOOF WOOF -GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
I’m still enjoying trialing LouiseWoof’s forex system and again, operating the system manually just yesterday, could readily see a rise in both currency groups, perhaps in reaction to a 1230 announcement. A profit of 20 points and 16 points would have accrued on this one announcement alone, and I am trying to include as many announcements as I can on a daily basis to hone my skills. Like Insider Signal, this is a practice practice practice system but has loads of potential. Check it out here:
I’m in with real money next week, so shall be writing this email from the Caribbean (where I will be watching the England v Ireland Cricket Final)
I must thank those testers who are providing superb feedback for me and allowing me to look at a greater number of systems simultaneously. The feedback also helps to notice some glitches or ambiguities in the instructions.
BUSWELL THE MAD PROFESSOR
MrBuswell’s laying system is working at present, although some of the odds are not for the squeamish. It only takes one of these to come in and it’s sayonara to so much previous hard work! The thoroughness of the system I suppose is what we hope will counteract the anomalous big priced nag romping home. I will continue to monitor.
Examples of selections include 50/1, 12/1, 10/1, 25/1, 20/1 and 50/1 yesterday. I suppose that there is an element of logic is selecting these prices provided we have built up enough confidence behind our opposition. Place laying these selections is proving effective at present.
Not producing the goods this week with too many winners. The concept behind this system is sound and logical but I would like to see a greater “mountain of evidence” as I spoke about earlier to strengthen selections as lays
I will be trying to blag a copy of this to share with you because it may have some potential – graphically representing horses chances of winning. I’ll keep you posted!
RAJ’S SOCCER REVOLUTION
Still shows a profit thus far but still I’m put off by the £200 price tag which is a bit much. Again I’ll reiterate to hold your breath on this one until original buyers look to offload it once they’ve ingrained the knowledge. One I will definitely follow all of next season. A lot safer, I would suggest, than the infamous Football Cash generator.
On the footy theme, there seems to be some cracking value this weekend – what immediately springs to mind is Liverpool away to ManCity who have all but secured their premiership survival against Chris “like I say” Coleman’s (P45) Fulham team.
I will be laying Arsenal against a Bolton side who have been a thorn in their sides on numerous occasions.
The FA Cup semi looks nailed on for United despite Watford’s great result last week. 7-1 against Roma is not a good sign. These semis are usually tight affairs but I may look to an over 2.5 goal result here.
Even tonight West Brom look good at 8/11 (with one eye on trading for me) For a fuller perspective visit the blog at http://soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com/ – the emphasis now is moving towards trading predominantly.
We would have made a nice profit laying Celtic last week and backing them at a higher price after they failed to score in the first half, and with the overs in the Spurs Reading game, although I’ll have to admit that Southampton’s routing of Wolves last week was a kick in the vernaculars!
While I can’t give you 33/1 winners every day, the horse blog is going well at present, and regular readers know I’m usually there or thereabouts and these big prices do occur – this year I think it’s 2 20/1 winners, a 25/1 winner and the 33/1 winner. I also put up twin progressive cycle bets which may interest those of you who want to follow the article I wrote on this subject of taking advantage of http://clivekeeling.spaces.live.com
I have really neglected the lay blog and will try hard to update it, so will let you know once it’s up and running again. With all of the lay systems out there, I’m sure you’ll want to keep track of their progress and decide your purchases based on performance. It can also allow you to keep track of lay profit alert progress.
Well, I’ve just received an invite from my nephew to attend his posh birthday bash – have a great weekend – I know I will – rice krispies cakes here I come!
Until next time,