Quiet day yesterday – laying 2 1/4 shots was a bit optimistic! Tripod Molly lost and Ogre won, and the Stoneacre’s came nowhere – highly optimistic again paying 2 the place
Another nice winner for O’Brien yesterday – 10/1 with the bookies and a massive 19 ( 18/1) on Betfair.
Why, well simply because the Irish markets are less efficient than the UK horse racing markets, and I suppose the punters are generally less well informed, it not being their bread and butter like the UK racing.
This is the value of Betfair – nearly double odds on an Aiden O’Brien horse!
Wayne Lordan really has been superb this season and, in combination with David Wachman is someone I may be adding to my roster to follow next season. A young Irish jockey but he’s been banging in good priced winners like clockwork!
A mix between flat and jumps at Bellewstown – I scanned the card – can’t see any Irish Combos
340 HAYDOCK – Tanto Faz would have been considered a lay but for the trigger words ” hard to beat”. Only one previous run is getting the bookies all hot and bothered enough to offer odds on. Looks a good place only bet and not a lay on this occasion
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tatbeeq, 9/4 Applaude, 8/1 Robert Burns, 10/1 Dolcetto, 16/1 Holden Eagle, Liberally, Soviet, 20/1 Into The Light, 25/1 Ateesh, Shaylee, 100/1 Bountiful Bay.
With form this season at 22, this maiden fav again looks a solid place only bet ( given the race type). My concern from a win perspective is the proximity of Applaude, and we must account for possible market movers
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Dancer In Demand, 7/4 Ordination, 3/1 Dazzling Light, 16/1 Filun, 20/1 Solar Max, 50/1 Lady Marguerite, 66/1 Squire Boldwood, 100/1 Darksideofthemoon, Go On Ahead, 200/1 Kennyboy
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only three that can be seriously considered here and DANCER IN DEMAND (nap) is strongly fancied to fulfil the high promise of his staying-on debut third over 1m2f here in May. This longer trip will be ideal for this close relative of North Light and he can see off Ordination and Dazzling Light.[AC]
A 3 horse race, but what chance they finish 1-2-3? Again place only on Dancer on Demand here.
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Schindlers Son, 7/2 Final Veto, 8/1 Strobe, 10/1 On My Terms, 12/1 Humourous, 40/1 Bayfirth, 50/1 Dannoby, Thynefliesby
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Despite the queries regarding both ground and trip, SCHINDLERS SON has to be the choice given his exploits since joining Peter Bowen.[JN]
Schindlers a non runner. I will lay Final veto if odds on
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Rievaulx World, 3/1 Simple Rhythm, 7/2 Camelot Communion, 7/1 Premier Krug, 16/1 Jethro Bodine.
Dilemma here- trigger words”likely to prove hard to beat” signal optimism for backers, but this is a nursery, and layers will like the proximity of the 2 nd and 3rd at 3/1 and 7/2. Small field and 2 year olds. Form of 221 recently for fav may signal a continuation upward? Place only for me rather than lay on rievaulx
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Khor Dubai, 11/4 Aakef, 11/2 Flyit, 8/1 Annapolis, 10/1 Magaling, 14/1 Magical Illusion, 20/1 Siciliando, 25/1 Missou Maiden, 33/1 Lady Dinsdale, River Dee, Sericus, 50/1 Jacobite Prince, 66/1 Clerical
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Magaling is interesting as the stable’s sole Gimcrack entry and would have to be respected if the market anticipated a big run, but it may be advisable to rely on the previous experience of Aakef and KHOR DUBAI. The Godolphin representative came out much the better at Royal Ascot but it is unlikely that Aakef gave his true running.
Not Frankie Spencer, but Frankie Dettori on Khor Dubai who should be another place only bet.
Again with these place only bets, I may consider a fun accumulator , winnings and stake from last race onto next race and so on.