I broke one of my rules in betting in soft ground and paid the price despite thinking the horses would be p to the task so lesson learned! How frustrating in the 1st to have my 3 selections 2nd, 3rd and 4th beaten by Sonning star. My initial analysis said that Souriceau might be vulnerable under a penalty -so why not lay it then?
No problems with Thisthatandtother as his odds dropped consistently throuhout the race allowing a stress free trade.
A mention for the 350 Kempton where the correct horses WERE chosen and Jamie Spencer’s mountMedicine Path won.
Musselburh’s 300 caused no problems as the race was won by one of the 2 market leaders allowing for a small profit.
Western Gale won by 17 lengths .Don’t be biting was 12/1 from 16/1 betting forecast – another 16/1 system bet. Again this race would have been better approached by laying Newmill after the price drift,he was brought down so didn’t give his running naturally.
Again, frustratingly, HEads on the ground and Never Comrpomise were 2nd and 3rd
The day was salvaged by the football – over 2.5 goals in the Ajax game, under 2.5 goals in the Newcastle game, and Aston Villa scoring first. I backed Villa at 2.32 – they scored first and the price plummeted to 1.3 allowing for a nice green screen REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME. Key words “SCORE FIRST”.
THe Werder Bremen half time/full time was going well until they got a man sent off. Bochum ended up winning the 2nd half but overs came in in a rather unconventional way – I was expecting a goal rout by Bremen but Bochum got the 2 to nudge the overs over the line.
Oh BArcelona! – why didn’t I take on board the 2 0-0’s Osasuna managed in the last 2 outings. Having backed BArca at 1.18 I traded out for a red screen (losses) at 1.4 and, seeing the pitch and weather backed the draw at 2.3 and trades out at 1.49 eventually ending up with a green screen. Barca eventually scored but if I knew what the pitch was like prior to the game, this would have been a no bet – they eventually managed it !
I left the Ghana game alone as it was a non commital bet ,but got in on Didier Drogba at 1.85 to score anytime – seeing his calf injury first half I thought he’s be subbed, and last kick of the first half, he picked the ball up on the edge of the box, curled a beauty, only for the keeper to save. So I had to wait for the 70th minute fo him to score and it came .Nice end to a frustrating day on the horses ( soft ground the culprit!)
2 all weather meetings today are not really ideal.
The day at Lingfield begins with a fillies seller – I’ll get me coat! Mostly competitive small field handicaps and a card better left alone.
SOUTHWELL
Similar to the above.
A mention for Cerebus and SpohiaGardens – possibilities to back both in the first , as with Leamington and Ski Sunday in the 250 .
2 cards with small fields and tricky races make today a real no bet horse wise for me
FOOTY
2 games in the African Cup of NAtions and Egypt take on Angola and Cameroon take on Tunisia.
Both games are priced to be tight games. I have no angle into either suffice to say that it may pay to back standout goal scoreres like Samuel Etoo for Cameroon at 2.38 – I can’t quite believe the odds rather like Droba being odds on yesterday. Cameroon are odds on for this fixture and if a goal was to come then Etoo, barring injury is the outstanding player on the pitch and will be my only bet of the day in a rather lacklustre Monday where we don’t have to bet just because there’s racing.