No bet day on horses yesterday – Cameroon managed 2 goals but Etoo was denied – the difference between this bet and Drogba’s the day before was that ivory Coast were taken to dominate given their price of 1/4 and with Cameroon at evens it was a bit more difficult for them
Today’s racing sees soft, heavy in places at Market Rasen and Heavy at Sedgefield . Again, the ground is not ideal
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Maraafeq, 11/4 Start Royal, 100/30 Pheidias, 11/2 Book Of Facts, 9/1 Amazing Request, 25/1 Feeling Peckish, 33/1 Fistral, 50/1 Good Etiquette.
The straight 8 here allowing for each way speculation. If we can safely dispose of Feeling Peckish, Fistral and Good etiquette this will leave 5 horses , priced early morning at 9/4, 10/3, 10/3, 9/2 and 9/1.
With 2 to beat to place, the obvious candidate at this stage is Book of facts at an early 9/2, but given ground conditions and the fact this is a juvenile novices hurdle I will speculate on Amazing Request just before the outsiders. Not a confident choice with ground and race type, he may nab a place at least if the market leaders underperform
Heavy ground on the chase course is stopping me putting up Never so blue in the 300.
The 330 sees the ultra consistent Theatre Diva run again, but today she faces 2 rivals in Souri des Champs and Le Dame Brune
Running only 6 days after a previous victory, I will chance level stakes on Souri and LA Dame BRune, OR lay Theatre Diva to monitor in running in the hope that a quick return on heavy ground will find the horse labouring
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Ajay, 6/1 Chapel House, 7/1 Isan, 8/1 Battle Stations, 16/1 Gnillish, 20/1 Quality Control, Ragador, 25/1 Cloisters Hill, 50/1 Moving Story, 100/1 Grey Eagle, Kalibs Dream, Peterpan De Solzen.
Ajay “no certainty on the ground” – so one to swerve for me despite the likely price gapper profile.
Can we safely ignore all horses from Cloisters hill onwards? If so, that’s 5 fewer horses to concern ourselves with, leaving 6 bar the favourite to concentrate on for each way purposes. Quality Control shows at 12/1 early doors – can we rely on the market this early? – if so this may be an indication that the horse is a potential market mover
I will opt for each way on ISan and Quality Control just incase that price discrepancy is significant
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Negus De Beaumont, 7/2 Stagecoach Diamond, 5/1 Ballintra Boy, 10/1 Chef De Cour, Unowatimeen, 25/1 Gypsy George, 33/1 Bog Oak, Zaffran Gail, 100/1 Callingwood .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This trip is sharp enough for NEGUS DE BEAUMONT but the ground will at least help in that respect and, provided his confidence remains intact after the blip at Newcastle, he can take this en route to something a lot better.[AWJ]
A beginners chase on heavy ground and again I hope we can disguard those from Gypsy George onwards
Unowatimeen again is 5/1 early on, has decent enough form but has a long lay off. Worth each way support given conditions and race type
240 – 8 horses at double figures and the market leader is coming back from a lay off – Tenancy each way for me
A very speculative look to today and the ideal, with HEavy ground at both jumps venues is to simply put a line through these cards. I will back my speculative each ways today with smaller stakes than usual and hope the ground will affect results
York City have scored 2 goals in all of their most recent home matches and at 1/2 the price indicates this may continue, offering us an opportunity to back over 2.5 goals with a good probability it will come in. It may rely on Northwich scoring though .
Motherwell v Dundee looks worthy of an halft time/full time level stakes dutch on
Why? Well taking away their most recent games Dundee have drawn twice away from home so the big payout will come from the Motherwell/Draw – slight loss on Motherwell/Motherwell.
To £10 level stakes £15 loss on Motherwell/Motherwell, big profit on Motherwell/Draw
These 2 teams are 2nd and 4th so this might be tighter than the prices.
Over 2.5 goals in the England and Germany under 21 matches could be the way to go. England’s under 21 squad looks solid.