I missed the good ole fashioned BArney Curley gamble on Tusculum yesterday – should have done my homework. Another placed horse yesterday.
100 STHl
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Safebreaker, 4/1 General Tufto, 13/2 Poppy Dean, 9/1 Buds Dilemma, Nautical, 12/1 Louisiade, 20/1 Desert Lover, Fifth Zak, Kai Mer, Tour D´Amour, 25/1 Pembo, 33/1 Fan Club, Naughty Girl.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SAFEBREAKER made heavy weather of his debut for Kevin Ryan but he has gone up only 3lb and the return to this surface can see improvement this time. General Tufto may be best of the others
2nd and 3rd fav and 4th fav out should really open this race up for Safebreaker 1.17 to place
130 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Whiskey Creek, 4/1 Incomparable, 7/1 Calmdownmate, 9/1 Colorus, 10/1 Garlogs, Grand Palace, 14/1 Desperate Dan, Efistorm, Peter´s Storm, Steel City Boy, 16/1 Circle Dance, 20/1 Replicator.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these have solid form to offer but WHISKEY CREEK (nap) has excelled himself lately and there’s a good chance he has at least one more race in him. Desperate Dan may be best of the others.
Another multiple handicap winner yesterday priced to win, but a suspicion with Whiskey Creek that he may be vulnerable today 1.63 to place – this, for me, is a signal that the winning run could end today -compare his price with Riguez dancer and Petrovksy who were solid favourites and backed to win
135 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Earth Mother, 6/1 Goldfeather, Gudnis Gracious Me, 7/1 Porto Calero, 8/1 Sorrentina, 10/1 Credit Box, Rotorua, Royal Debs, Tilly Ann, 12/1 Ginger Princess, Knockbrack Vic, 14/1 Dromaneen Castle, 16/1 Closetocrazy, 20/1 Micks Kicks, 25/1 Big Bess, Live A Lot.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: EARTH MOTHER may be good enough to overcome the drawback of her lack of hurdling experience. A point-to-point winner first time out last season and fourth in a 2m2f Tipperary bumper in May, she won a Wexford bumper on her first run after a break of almost seven months and then lost little caste in defeat behind 10lb-receiving four-year-old Carrigmoorna Storm in a winners’ event at Navan. She is equipped with a tongue-tie for the first time today.\n
Now odds on and Walsh onboard with a pronounced price gap in the live market- caution with heavy ground and lack of hurdling experience 1.24 to place
230 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Sabancaya, 7/2 Merrion Tiger, 6/1 Blue Hills, 8/1 Safin, Saloon, 12/1 Zaffeu, 16/1 Always Certain, Three Boars, 20/1 Up In Arms, 25/1 A Bit Of Fun, Fight The Feeling, Pure Magic, 33/1 Born West, Que Beauty.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Merrion Tiger merits the utmost respect after an impressive course win last month but one with more proven stamina is BLUE HILLS, who’s also in his element on this surface and comes here in peak form. Sabancaya completes the shortlist.
Down to 7 runners – still 3 the place on BEtfair – have to check that out cos this will be a great probability race if that’s the case – fav 1.36 to place and still 3 the place
250 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Carrickboy, 11/4 Aboukir Bay, 6/1 Pertinent, 10/1 Bacchanalianbertie, 12/1 Sona Sasta, 16/1 Cesium, Intensifier, Rudie Finn, 20/1 Merrymadcap, Monsieur Cadou, 25/1 Deep Squeeze, Etain, 50/1 Blue Tweed, 100/1 Lunces Lad.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Market confidence behind bumper winner Aboukir Bay on his debut for David Pipe would be highly significant but one quite capable of spoiling the party is CARRICKBOY, who shaped well on his hurdling debut and can bounce back from last week’s unlucky stumble
CArrickboy the market mover here but caution – maiden hurdle and heavy ground 1.29
405 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Tom The Traveller, 9/2 Having A Cut, 6/1 Heavenly Heights, Supreme Deal, 7/1 Cupids Flyer, 8/1 Glenduff Castle, 12/1 Battlefront, Brokenheartedclown, Knoxville, 14/1 Tiernan´s Terror, 16/1 Bad Dog John, 20/1 Carrigeen Lunaria, Hook Or By Crook, Lady Ramona, Nurburg Ring, Thunder Run, 25/1 Leahs Joy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TOM THE TRAVELLER (nap) has established a solid reputation in point-to-points and is worth siding with on his racecourse debut.
Now 7/4 and yesterday a prolific point to pointer ran very well -more of the same today? 1.52 to place
430 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Edas, 4/1 Onemoreandstay, 5/1 Mustajed, 8/1 Boundless Prospect, Mambo Sun, 12/1 Gunnadoit, 14/1 Eseej, Jackie Kiely.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Quite a competitive race for the grade with half of the field having scored on their latest start, but EDAS looks the most favourably handicapped after his convincing display here last week. Onemoreandstay needs further progress but that’s not impossible and her rider’s claim will help off this mark on her handicap debut.
Edas hardened at the head of the market – 8 down to 7 runners -still 3 the place on BEtfair? 1.19 and still 3 the place
445 NAD A L SHEEBA
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bound By Honour, 5/1 Galactic Star, 8/1 Without A Prayer, 10/1 Duellant, Feared In Flight, 14/1 Dr Faustus, Hawks Home, Varsity, Via Galilei, 20/1 Bucked Off, Halicarnassus, 25/1 Pearly King, 33/1 Bruges, Charlie Cool.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a fine opportunity for BOUND BY HONOUR (nap) to notch his first UAE win. Herman Brown got off the mark at this Carnival last week and his runner, who caught the eye over an inadequate 1m trip on his UAE debut without his usual blinkers, has the headgear refitted and will surely go close from a 107 mark if able to reproduce last year’s Grade 1 Durban July third to dead-heaters Dancer’s Daughter and Pocket Power. Galactic Star, having his first run for his in-form yard, looks the most interesting of the remainder
Price gapper here albeit in a highly competitive race 1.46 in an illiquid market
515 NAD AL SHEEBA
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Front House, 5/1 Eva´s Request, Peace Royale, 7/1 Happy Spirit, 10/1 Inca Noble, Jalmira, 14/1 My Central, 20/1 Akua´Ba, Clifton Dancer, Deem, 66/1 Olympic Glory.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mike de Kock won this last year with top class Sun Classique and he has another filly of immense potential in FRONT HOUSE, who progressed well in South Africa last year, culminating in a Grade 2 success against older fillies when without a weight allowance on her final start. The drop to this trip isn’t a concern and she’s taken to beat Happy Spirit, whom she beat in the SA Oaks (subsequently lost race in stewards’ room) and who is better than she was able to show in a messy race on her UAE debut.
Another price gapper from a big international stable 1.44 -again market not got going yet
545 NAD AL SHEEBA
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Asiatic Boy, 7/4 My Indy, 7/1 Don Renato, 10/1 Gloria De Campeao, Supaseus, 20/1 Glen Nevis, Happy Boy, 50/1 Military Power, 66/1 Fleurie.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that looks to revolve around ASIATIC BOY and My Indy. The latter turned in a career best to win Round 1 of this series but, with the market leader disappointing, he faced an easier task than seemed likely beforehand and will be tested fully by Mike de Kock’s 2007 UAE Triple Crown winner. Asiatic Boy, who chased home Curlin in last year’s Dubai World Cup, is reportedly further forward than he was for his reappearance run last year. Don Renato has something to find with Saeed Bin Suroor’s runner but appeals as best of the remainder over this longer trip
My Indy currently favourite in the live market. A race where a decision should be made regarding which of the front 2 to select nearer the off 1.28 and 1.23 to place
ONE A DAY
With 2nd, 3rd and 4th favs none runners, surely this opens things up for Safebreaker? Big price gapper now ith market rivals out . Hint that the horse may not be the most straightforward but the hope is that his job will be a lot easier with the 3 who were likely to be the biggest rivals not running.
Still 3 the place.