It’s not too difficult to pick a short price lay is it? Take Ajay – all the clues were there and in full view of all those who could ,well, read! – question mark over heavy ground – the horse was pulled up on soft ground previously and he ended up unplaced.
instead of laying, the odds were enhanced by a 16/1 system selection in Quality Control, booting home at 6/1 ( bigger on Betfair). Another market moverUnowatameen ( 10/1 betting forecast went off 9/4!) came in. We also got Theatre Diva beat.
Amazing request disappointed and was speculative given there were more likely each way contenders but was worthy of a speculative punt given ground conditions .
Tenancy was a non runner.
Well the York City game is on tonight but Ladbrokes had it on the 5th Feb coupon! England left it to the 2nd half to assert with a brace from James Milner ensuring overs got smashed – here again was another example of a 1.2 team who could have been backed at as high as 1.75. Similarly those with faith in the youngsters would have backed over 2.5 goals at half time as it remained 0-0 , again at hugely inflated odds. This is what I wish I did yesterday but alas I kept with the boys from the start.
The German match finished 2-1 – again overs in the bag. Motherwell was postponed
All in all a very pleasing day given I had pretty much dismissed eeking out any profit from 2 heavy ground venues.
CARLISLE – SOFT GROUND
120
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Minster Shadow, 2/1 Truckers Lady, 8/1 Byways Boy, 33/1 Noquina, The Chisholm .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Truckers Lady gets weight from her rivals and should find a race before long, but MINSTER SHADOW looked decent when scoring at Newcastle and can follow up.[SR
A toss of the coin race really with Minster Shadow and Truckers Lady priced 10/11 and 11/10 in the early prices, making up nearly the whole 100% book by themselves.
This is not really dutchable ( well it is but , for example, you’d break even on Minster shadow and make £2.35 on Truckers lady to an example £10 level stake
In the hope these 2 dominate, Truckers lady is 1.26 to place which is quite reasonable given the make up of the race and may be my way in. Her last 2 runs have been 2nd places in heavy ground.
Alternatively, toss a coin and back either / or and hope for the best!
220
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Woodview, 4/1 Lago, 8/1 Shulmin, Sol Run, 9/1 Scott´s Mill, 10/1 Roaringwater, 14/1 Stormont Dawn, 20/1 Kalic D´Alm, 25/1 Stravaigin, Super Boston, 33/1 Northern Vic .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WOODVIEW’s previous record suggests he is probably not one to take too short a price about, but this jockey got a good tune out of him at Newcastle last week and he will be hard to beat if in the same mood. Lago is the obvious danger
All the hall marks of an HTB selection – Spotlight – “clearly the one to beat” – ” will be hard to beat if in the same mood” – I don’t like the “if” bit if I’m being picky. – distance winner – top rpr – top topspeed – Lago is the only danger price wise – early prices – 15/8 – – – 7/2
Personally I will level stakes back both Woodview and Lago, mindful of ground conditions and not 100% sure of a return given its a handicap chase and soft ground but I feel I will be in with a shout if putting my faith in the odds
255
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Circassian, 100/30 Beggars Cap, 4/1 Open De L´Isle, 6/1 Cebonne, 16/1 Stand On Me, 20/1 Kempski, 50/1 Astyanax, 100/1 Anvil Point .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CIRCASSIAN (nap) was easily the best of these over hurdles and his recent chase debut suggested he is equally effective over fences. He can retain his unbeaten chasing record at the expense of Open De L’Isle, who was a long way behind the selection most recently but should get closer this time.[
The straight 8 here so an avenue in for each way plundering? First thing to do is check the horses from Stand by me onwards have not reduced in odds in the early price market ( may be indicative of a 16/1 system type gamble a la Quality Control) All 4 ‘s odds have either stayed the same or increased which means this 8 runner race can become, probability wise, a 4 horse race.
With only 1 to beat to place, then Cebonne is the natural each way selection – if Circassian gives his true running we will be fighting for places only
DOWNROYAL
Well my last 3 short priced lays have all won in Ireland and I saw Rare Bob in the 205 20 runner maiden hurdle on soft to heavy ground and thought – “Shall I?” I’ll sit this one out on this occasion!
KEMPTON
A likely contender in Given a choice in the 820 but I have seen claiming stakes shorties bite the dust even in 4 runner fields!
LINGFIELD
130 – BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Wrighty Almighty, 4/1 Parkview Love, 9/2 Reballo, 5/1 Faithful Ruler, 13/2 Garden Party, 10/1 Chief Exec, Corlough Mountain, 12/1 Satyricon, 33/1 Moonlight Man,
Moonlight man is currently 20/1 early morning prices – a hint? Well Spotlight tells us that trainer has been “experimenting” with the horse over different trips, and the horse is seeing a marked drop in grade and handicap mark which is evidence to suggest a change of fortunes.
If he reaches 16/1 or 14/1 in the live market near the of then I will entertain a small each way interest ( although not too confident of a return given poor recent form)
230
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Electrolyser, 5/2 The Riddler, 6/1 Clovis, 12/1 Red Linnet, 25/1 Royal Soverin, 66/1 Pie O My, 100/1 Den´s Boy .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Derby entry ELECTROLYSER made a highly encouraging start to his career when runner-up over C&D last month and this looks a good opportunity to go one better. The Riddler can follow him home.
God I hate maidens – but “Derby entry” and Spotlight – “looked certain future winner”
Short enough price with the Riddler a concern – worth a punt for me to show why he’s a derby entry (just hope it’s not a donkey derby!)
LUDLOW
SOFT
210
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Harringay, 6/4 Menchikov, 11/4 Earth Man, 50/1 Ellies Horse, 66/1 Port Of Mogan, Supreme Marque, 100/1 Perseverance, Rules Apply, The Walnut Tree, 150/1 Aliby .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is surely only a matter of time before Harringay wins over fences, but with her stamina in doubt on ground that may be softer than ideal it may be worth siding with MENCHIKOV. The 8yo also has questions to answer over the distance and is coming back from a layoff but the stable has been doing well with its novice chasers, including those coming back from a break
A very interesting race involving 3 horses all priced over 3 on betfair – yes dutchable with a break even on Earth Man and £2.38 profit on the others to £10 example level stakes – equivalent to a 1/5 bet.
2 of these 3 will lose and 1 will win ( you don’t say!) and I will ,against my better judgement, level stakes back Harringay and Earth Man – Menchicov is coming back from a 656 day absence and is the slight outsider of the 3. My concern is that the rejuvenated Mick Fitz is on board – a jockey I’d rather have on my side.
This could be a leave alone race or you yourself could decide on one of the 3 to leave out to produce an evens bet by backing the other 2 to level stakes. They’re so closely matched that it’s simple guess work and cover the other 2 knowing, probability wise, we have 2/3rd of the likely contenders on our side
My instincts tell me I have made too many selections today. If I was to be ultra selective then Electrolyser is the simplest and least complicated bet today in the hope the horse fulfils the Derby Entry credentials
FOOTBALL
I already put a mug punter acca on last night on Australia to win, Japan to beat Thailand, and Korea to beat the mighty Turkmenistan (high five! – well, it’s near Khazakstan!)
A lot of the games are mighty closely priced up with a couple at 6/4 both home and away.
England v Switzerland is a good place to start and it is to the half time/ full time market I will go.
I will back England /England at 2.22 , and Draw/England at 4.8.
Those of a more nervous disposition can back Draw/Draw aswell to level stakes leaving a loss on England/England but the equivalent of a 3/1 payout for the other 2 results
By backing England/England and Draw/England, we are, of course, assuming victory. Altering stakes on these 2 can generate an evens payout on each eventuality
For example,
ENGLAND/ENGLAND – ODDS 2.22 STAKE £16
DRAW/ENGLAND – ODDS 4.8 STAKES £7
returns £11.89 and £10.07 for a near evens bet about a 1.45 shot.
Again, as with England’s under 21’s (priced shorter than this side) a 0-0 stalemate at half time and you should entertain backing England in the match odds market at far greater odds. (ditto over 2.5 goals if you are confident )
MUG PUNTER ACCA
As already mentioned I have a mug punter acca on the go, with 2 kick offs at 1030 this morning , and the Aussies ,at half time , 3-0 up.
Another mug punter acca to consider for me is the following
1 Saudi Arabia v Singapore (Backing Saudi Arabia @ 1.21)
2 England v Switzerland (Laying Switzerland @ 18.56)
3 Austria v Germany (Laying Austria @ 10.86)
4 Argentina v Guatemala (Backing Argentina @ 1.2)
4-Folds
Selections Odds* Stake Potential win
1,2,3 and 4 1.69 £84.90 £58.58
The reasoning – Saudi Arabia are at home and all those Sheikhs will want to rattle and roll and see a comfortable victory for their boys against a Singapore side who have dominated world football for years …..NOT
Laying Switzerland and Austria covers the draw.
The Argies face Guatemala at home – I am mindful of the Premiership fixture list this weekend and would hope to see a strong Argie side. I am basing my bets, at this stage, purely on the odds for the Argies indicating an easy home win.