Good performance from all place only shortlisters yesterday, the last one in the maiden came 2nd, beaten by ….yes you guessed it, Simonside – 20/1 in the betting forecast going off 15/2 and winning – another 16/1 system bet!
Good stuff from the market movers yesterday too – a few winners but some outside the 5/1 price cap
205 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Quartz De Thaix, 11/2 Big Eared Fran, 6/1 Bakbenscher, 8/1 Burton Port, 17/2 Clay Hollister, 10/1 Keki Buku, Time For Rupert, 11/1 Edgbriar, 12/1 Busker Royal, Summery Justice, 16/1 Circus Of Dreams, What A Buzz, 20/1 Finney, Song Sung Blue, Tullamore Dew, 33/1 Any Currency, Quazy De Joie, 40/1 Martys Mission.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: QUARTZ DE THAIX may well be the answer, looking to be on a decent mark on his Taunton defeat of two decent previous winners on his British debut and with the likelihood of some improvement on just his fourth start over hurdles today. Burton Port heads the list of alternatives, ahead of Bakbenscher.[MCu]
Keki Buru 6/1
215 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Scolboa Music Man, 6/4 Oh So Humbel, 4/1 Mighty Massini, 20/1 Tommy Tobougg.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Oh So Humbel will presumably set out to make it a good test once more and that could suit SCOLBOA MUSIC MAN, who appeared to doss when he got to the front in winning over 2m4f here last month. There is little between them on official BHA figures.[PJ]
Oh So Humbel has leapfrogged into favouratism and odds on.
Soft ground at Ayr
235 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Fresh Air And Fun, 7/2 Zacharova, 9/2 Mister Quasimodo, 5/1 Stagecoach Opal, 13/2 Antonius Caesar, 17/2 Stolen Moments, 12/1 Trigger The Light.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A tight little handicap in which most of the runners make some sort of appeal. FRESH AIR AND FUN could be the one, having made a good start to his chase career in his first two tries, notably when second to Zacharova in a C&D handicap last time. Fresh Air And Fun is effectively 12lb better off this time and can reverse the form, while Tony McCoy is sure to be aware that there are other possible pacesetters in the field, so it is unlikely the partnership will become involved in a draining fight for the lead. Antonius Caesar may be next best.[MCu]
Trigger the light 8/1
300 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Bundle Up, Leprechaun´s Gold, 11/2 Monsieur Georges, 10/1 Beshairt, Little Rort, 12/1 Ruling Reef, 14/1 Waltham Abbey, 16/1 Lazy But Lively, 20/1 Colditz, 25/1 Decree Nisi, Manolo, Olivino, Ostinata, Speedy Directa, 33/1 Hero Again, Pardon What, Sir Pandy, 66/1 Where´s Trigger.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The best options are all towards the very foot of the handicap and on this ground preference is for MONSIEUR GEORGES.[AWJ]
Waltham Abbey 6/1 at the moment, Sir Pandy 10/1 , Decree Nisi 16/1 in places
320 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Kempski, 11/4 Echo Point, 7/2 Young Albert, 5/1 Manadam, 6/1 Monolith.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mud-loving front runner KEMPSKI is 12lb higher than when winning this 12 months ago but he is now unbeaten in four 2m4f handicap hurdles here after his January success and, back at his best trip, he may be capable of defying the assessor once more. Hard-pulling Young Albert is a trifle frustrating but certainly has the raw ability to win a race like this if he settles, while Manadam may benefit from the absence of the visor.[PJ]
Young Alkbert now 7/4 fav in a tight market
420 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Song Of Songs, 15/8 Deep Purple, 2/1 Restless D´Artaix, 66/1 Kinkeel.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With a doubt about the ground for Restless d’Artaix, this may be between SONG OF SONGS and form pick Deep Purple. The latter would take a deal of catching if at his best but he was very disappointing last time so preference is for Song Of Songs, who won in most taking style at Leicester last time, albeit at odds of 30-100.[MCu]
In a day of very few place only opps for me, this has a glimmer of hope with a 100/1 outsider meaning any of the 3 remaining must just beat 1 to place
515 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Capeability, 9/2 Hypnotist, 7/1 Gifted Leader, 10/1 Garter Knight, If You Knew Suzy, Smooth Sovereign, 14/1 Location, 16/1 Satwa Gold, 20/1 Baligha, 33/1 Gozome, Holoko Heights, Morning Sir Alan, 50/1 Elevate Bobbob.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Likely Hypnotist is capable of a good deal better than he showed on his only start last year and he could be the main rival to fellow Derby entry CAPEABILITY who went close on his return at Lingfield last month.[
3 non runners and an odds on price gapper BUT in a maiden.
Baligha 9/1 in places BUT is this a reaction to the non runners?
Neck 2nd last time out is encouraging
545 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Eighteenfifty, 5/1 Salute, 6/1 City Stable, 7/1 Horseshoe Reef, 8/1 Wind Flow, 10/1 Pass The Port, 16/1 Veiled Applause.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although EIGHTEENFIFTY needs to take a step forward on the form he showed when winning his maiden here last month, the step up in trip will definitely suit this bumper winner and he should have plenty more to offer on a surface on which his dam’s progeny have done well. Horseshoe Reef and Salute can follow him home
PRice gapper in a handicap – Frankie Spencer on board BUT only 2 the place
SHORTLIST
Well, there isn’t one really. Looks like all the good opportunities are waiting at CHeltenham next week
420 SANDOWN – 3 vying for 2 places but which one of the 3 will falter and which 2 will place. We can go with probability that we have a 2 in 3 chance of succcess and opt for the market leader at the off
SONG of songs – 1.31 to place
Deep Purple 1.4 to place
Restless Dartaix 1.94 to place
1.31 is certainly enticing for the current market leader but if taking this bet on, you must be prepared for a loss as this is not as rock solid as I would like. AP McCoy could swing my decision for me as he is on Song of Songs
515 WOLVES and CApability was a neck 2nd last time out and is 1.21. Another maiden race and a potential market mover too in debutant Baligha. Coincidence that a debutant is a potential 16/1 system bet? Odds on now and 6/1 the 2nd fav is encouraging
There are alternatives in the football today.
Go to www.ladbrokes.com and look at all short priced home teams. Use www.soccerstats.com to check the teams
My instinct tells me that there will be better days ahead for better opportunities and any decisions I make will include trading in running today. The above 2 mentioned are the only opportunties today for me, albeit with a lack of confidence. Watch out as the day unfolds because there may be late non runners in certain races which could present a good place only opportuntiy
THe Cheltenham Festival will provide plentiful and more clearcut opportunities next week.