FAbulous day on the market movers yesterday, winner after winner after winner and another place only back coming good , winning well
210 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Chapter And Verse, 11/4 Mt Kintyre, 9/2 Shaaridh, 12/1 Marillos Proterras, 20/1 Emerald Hawk, 25/1 Gosforth Park, Herawati, 66/1 Berriedale.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Shaaridh has to be on the shortlist given the current form of her stable and their record in this race, but CHAPTER AND VERSE sets a fair standard and will take plenty of beating.[GN]
Fav is now odds on and represents the solid Hills contingent
Only 3 under 20/1 but this is a maiden and yet again a fav who has not been out since late 2008. 2 debutants and 2 horses who are open to improvement having only had the one run, so not as clear cut as first imagined
220 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Posh Bird, 2/1 Scale Bank, 7/2 Spearman, 5/1 Lugato, 10/1 Hightori, 40/1 Loch Awe, Mardood, 50/1 Waterdale, 66/1 Shara Like Magic, 100/1 Bernshaw, 150/1 The Classic Fox.
Lugano an interesting non runner should open up the gap between the 3 market leaders and the rest of the field in this novices hurdle
Indeed, there are only 4 under 33/1 so HOPEFULLY a 4 horse race vying for the 3 places – 1.39 and 1.24 for the market leaders
230 FONT
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Calusa Crystal, 7/4 Call Me A Legend, 12/1 Mini Saddler, 16/1 Where´s Susie, 20/1 Sweet Robinia, 25/1 Byzantina Fair, Shenandoah Girl, 33/1 Bella Medici, Sylroy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some of the others have shown a bit of ability but dual hurdling winners CALUSA CRYSTAL and Call Me A Legend are comfortably clear in terms of form. It could be a good battle between them.
Front 2 look to be clear of the field. THe only hope, as with El BRavo and Isabelonabicycle is that they finish 1st and 2nd. Difficult to chose between them
250 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 The Duke´s Speech, 5/2 Ingratitude, 9/2 All For The Cause, 11/2 Ouste, 8/1 Heavenly Chorus, Pilca, 66/1 Kingoftheswingers, The Ringer, 80/1 Madge, 100/1 Fortune´s Fool, 150/1 Able Dara, 200/1 Overlaw.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Duke’s Speech, for all that he’s capable of fairly useful form on his day, has never really lived up to what could have been expected from certain performances and has yet to race on ground firmer than good. He’s worth taking on with INGRATITUDE who is currently rated 133 over hurdles and proven on fast going.[SB]
A race of 2 halves – 5 are 100/1 or bigger with one at 33/1 leaving 6 horses who should compete for the places
330 FONT
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Black Beauty, 7/2 Alrafid, 5/1 Lester Leaps In, 10/1 Tecktal, 12/1 Chunky Lad, 16/1 Shanahan, 33/1 Country Affair, 50/1 Prince Ducal, 100/1 Surely Keen.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alrafid’s recent form at this level suggests he will not be far away. However, BLACK BEAUTY and Lester Leaps In are dropped in grade and the former has shown he retains the ability to set a high standard.[RA]
Tecktal the bridge between market leaders and outsiders is out so this should emphasise the price gap.
A 4 horse race looks the call here but it is a selling hurdle and they are here for a reason !
400 FONT
BETTING FORECAST: 1/6 Greenbridge, 5/1 Personal Column, 25/1 Lethal Gun.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Personal Column’s peak efforts over hurdles last term pose a threat to GREENBRIDGE at these weights but their contrasting achievements since are summed up by the 31 lengths which Personal Column was beaten when they met here last month.[RA]
GReat probability bet for the place only with a 25/1 outsider and 2 places – no doubt reflected in the place only price
410 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Hawaass, 4/1 Jaser, 9/2 Albaqaa, 6/1 Jabal Tariq, 7/1 Pevensey, 10/1 Ladies Best, 12/1 Lake Poet, 16/1 Mull Of Dubai.
8 down to 6 – still 3 places? Jaser the interesitng non runner here and the price on Hawass is now odds on as a direct reaction to near market rival’s absence – all hinges on whether Betfair pay out 3 places
450 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Simple Jim, 6/1 Harcas, 8/1 Uptown Lad, 12/1 Gamma Velorum, Pete, Springvic, 14/1 Chicago Jazz, Follow On, 25/1 Laconicos, 33/1 Ceilidh Lass, Dance Sauvage, Dippy Duck, 66/1 Big Bone, Sybellius D´Artaix.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The betting could provide a pointer with the likes of Gamma Velorum, Pete and Chicago Jazz but SIMPLE JIM (nap) must be hard to beat if he is in the same form as he was when winning at Wetherby last week.[FC]
Price gapper in a handicap hurdle unpenalised and odds on , but handicap shorties can be unpredictable. That said, this is an eyecatching price gap
SHORTLIST
210 PONTE – Chapter and VErse 1.1 to place – quite short for a horse off since Oct 2008
220 SEDG – Scale Bank is the mover into6/4 favouratism and in a race with many outsiders should be competitive for the place
330 FONT – despite this being a selling hurdle, Black Beauty takes a drop in class and at 4/5 is priced to be competitive – 1.22 to place tells us this is not a gimme
400 FONT – Greenbridge is 1.08 to place, higher than I thought for a 3 horse race with a 25/1 outsider and 2 places – top of the list!
ONE A DAY
It’s got to be GReenbridge surely today , even from a probability perspective. A fall of course will curtail chances and that’s the risk we take. Choc Thornton for Alan King increases confidence and the outsider has pulled up last 4 times. Avoid a fall or any mishaps and we’re in.