Not very good Sunday meeting at Kempton or the footy.

PSV caught my attention with their 6-0 drubbing of the opposition last time out and at 1.4 away from home looked a better alternative than the 2 shortlisted races yesterday – they won 5-3
Barca beat Sporting Gujon 6-1 at their place and at 1.2 at home having scored 16+ goals in their last 4 home games  -they won 3-1

130 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 First Avenue, 15/8 Excape, 3/1 Pour Changer, 16/1 Ray Diamond,  Red And White, 33/1 Gofannon,  Le Brocquy,  Ministerofinterior,  Pinnacle Point, 66/1 Home.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Excape and First Avenue are decent novices to be starting off here but this is difficult ground for a beginner and it may pay to go with the previous experience of POUR CHANGER

A novices hurdle in soft and a couple of debutants – 3 against the field here – 3 sub 16/1

McCoy on Excape
1.29 , 1.44 , 1.39 to place in betting forecast order.
NOW , with this race and using FaIRBOT, I can dutch the front 3 to get my target profit – for edxample a £2.85 net target uses £33 stake

200 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 No Supper, 5/1 Anna Panna,  Romney Marsh, 6/1 Carrickmines, 8/1 Arabian Sun, 12/1 Days Of Pleasure, 16/1 Mist Again,  She´s No Muppet,  Silistra, 20/1 Airedale Lad,  Better Moment,  Whatalotofbuts,  Wondersobright, 25/1 The Iron Giant.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Few of these come here in much form and despite the big weight NO SUPPER (nap) looks the most interesting one on his debut for Tim Vaughan

No Supper now 11/10 with next best at 8/1 – quite a price gap in the live market
It would excite it were it not for the fact this is a hands and heels handicap hurdle for conditional and amateur riders on soft ground!
So why is the fav fancied? New yard? Cheekpieces? 1.45 to place

210 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Hollow Jo,  Sherjawy, 5/1 Head To Head, 13/2 Babel,  Wynberg, 9/1 Lady Bahia,  Marvin Gardens, 10/1 Sir Loin, 14/1 Meikle Barfil.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sir Loin is the only habitual front-runner and tactics may play a small part given that some of these probably need a strong pace at this trip. It’s worth chancing that a change of scenery will have a positive effect for WYNBERG on his first outing for Stef Liddiard. Support for Babel would be significant.

Wynberg into 2/1 – a 0-55 handicap so we must put the move into context 1.65 to place

235 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Millenium Royal, 7/4 Wind Instrument, 10/1 Pangbourne, 25/1 Wheres Johnny.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A two-horse race on paper and MILLENIUM ROYAL, who was officially rated 32lb higher than Wind Instrument over hurdles and has also achieved more over fences, should come out the better barring accidents.[

A 2 horse race and the live market mirrors the betting forecast. 3 miles 2 furlongs on soft is offputting 1.26 and 1.55
Pangbourne 13/2 may hint at interest in that one?

245 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Longboat Key, 7/2 Clovis, 13/2 Bolanderi, 10/1 Ensnare, 40/1 Super King.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LONGBOAT KEY (nap) should find this a lot easier than the maiden he contested at Lingfield on his reappearance and he has greater potential for improvement than his main form rival Clovis

8/15 into 4/11 in the live market says it all really – it is a maiden race mind you but that’s some move 1.09 to place

325 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Eighteenfifty, 5/1 Dusk, 6/1 One Zero, 8/1 Rosko,  Waldorf, 12/1 Wray Castle, 20/1 Johnston´s Baby, 50/1 Marieschi, 100/1 Nomadic Warrior,  Sugar State,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A decent opportunity for the useful bumper performer EIGHTEENFIFTY to enhance the good record of his dam’s progeny on Polytrack.

Forty tirty was crap yesterday – from the same stable? Eighteen fifty is well backed into odds ons – debutant on polytrack BUT not a debutant under race conditions – do THEY KNOW? Is it worth risking a debutant on a specialist surface or is the money well founded. As we saw yesterday the money was NOT well founded ( hence my choice of Barcelona  and PSV instead!)

BUT George Baker did win in the listed race on a well backed odds on shot yesterday 1.14 to place – certainly confidence in both the win and the place markets

345 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Miss Sarenne, 15/8 Ruthenoise, 2/1 Quaspia, 25/1 Never Lost, 33/1 Ashleys Petale,  She´s So Pretty, 66/1 Shenandoah Girl, 150/1 Tara Whale.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Quaspia is a fair enough yardstick but this may lie between the two French imports Ruthenoise and MISS SARENNE, with very minor preference for the latte

8 runner race down to 7
Why is AShleys Petal 14/1? The non runner at 150/1 would not have adversely affected the market 1.19 , 1.39 and 1.35
Still 3 places – AShleys Petal 16 and 2.86 to place

McCoy on the fav

450 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Fabulous Fred, 3/1 Glebehall Bay, 4/1 King Of Dubai, 9/1 Douryna, 10/1 Lemonade Jack,  Niceboy, 20/1 Lady Vera, 33/1 Kaycee,  My Only Boy,  Our Little Dreamer, 66/1 My Jim Fan,  Rapid Connection,  The Red Laird, 100/1 So Regal.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: King Of Dubai may well have stamina limitations and this may rest between Fabulous Fred and GLEBEHALL BAY, both of whom showed plenty of promise in their bumpers. The betting should be helpful regarding the newcomers, among whom Douryna looks the most interesting

2nd fav a non runner leaves a price gapper in the live market in Fabulous Fred at evens and next best at 11/2
Fabulous Fred has placed twice. Concern is the ground which, coming to the end of the race day, may be worse than soft.
6 debtants in this bumper and 4 one time out runners.
1.27 to place

ONE A DAY

As mentioned above, I can dutch the front 3 in the 130 PLUMPTON which will be equivalent to backing a 1.1 shot

Longboat Key is the obvious contender today -and well backed into 4/11 ,is 1.09 to place which I might take today given the soft ground at Plumpton ( I’ve learned before that soft ground in the paper  is not necessarily soft ground on the course)

Fabulous Fred looks to be a great option today too at a better price – you can risk ground conditions and the race type ,but he has the right guy on board in Richard Johnson.