Hi,

Yes, folks, it’s been one for those weeks. Truly momentous. Who would have thought it eh?

We are actually living through history being created. I never thought I’d see it in my lifetime…

Yes, Kelly Brook has been axed from Britain’s Got Talent!

Oh yes, there was that other momentous event wasn’t there this week? Let me think… oh yes, Burnley getting 3 against the Spurs and nearly knocking them out of the Carling Cup. 1.02 Spurs to qualify backers must have been sweating a little!

Oh, yes, and I nearly forgot, there was THAT momentous occasion this week. How could I let it slip my mind?

Yes, AP McCoy notched up 3000 winners. Not bad eh!

Oh and some bloke called Barry K Baumer in America doing some stuff or something.

New Balls Please

It has been interesting this week in the tennis – the Australian Open. It would seem that those insomniacs among you might like to note the poor performance of short odds women (as opposed to short, odd women like Jeanette Krankie) when they perform over first to 2 sets matches.

Take Amelie Mauresmo v Elena Baltasha – Amelie was 1.21 to win .She got off to a flying start but Elena showed some bulldog spirit and at one occasion, Amelie’s odds drifted out to 2.1 to back!

Then there was Serena Williams against Giselle Dulko (phoooaaaaarrrrr) of Argentina. Serena was biggest priced 1.04 pre match to win this game, and during the game her price rose to 1.35 or higher as Dulko (phoooarrrr) fought back.

Then there was Venus Williams at 1.02 to back against Sesil I think. And SHE FECKING LOST!

What does that tell us?

Well, it would seem that the Women’s tennis format is rife for the opponents of ultra short priced well fancied hot pots -why? Well it’s the first to 2 sets, and a fight back always looks likely AT SOME STAGE DURING THE MATCH because over 2 sets there’s so little time!

Layers of the above 3 named women would have cleaned up using in running trading (despite 2 of the 3 winning!) and this is certainly something I am keen to pursue I think in the future. Yes, these shorties may win, BUT the opponents I feel, especially if losing the first set, seem to really fight to keep themselves in the game because the short format dictates that if they lose a 2nd set, they’re out! So it’s WOMEN, very short priced who are worth opposing with trading in mind!

Ultra shorties in the men’s game are less likely to underperform as the 5 set format allows plenty of space for recovery.

Congrats to Andy Murray who is looking superb and will go a long way in this tournament, having already beaten the World’s Number 1 and 2 quite recently.

At 5/2 I think he’s a good investment to probably hedge if he reaches the final. He looks every inch a Champion in waiting.

So, very much a week to oppose ultra short priced good things where appropriate!

Well the newsletter should be winging its way to you in the very near future. There’s plenty to chew over that’s for sure, including what is great value for money in False Favourites. (www.false-favourites.co.uk).This is one of a growing band of what I like to term “reference books”, as it really is not a system.

For £20 (when I got a copy) this is a superb purchase for those who are interested in what makes a winner win and a loser lose, and in the actual make up of the races that appear on the flat and jumps. It is an indepth introduction to horse racing pretty much and is a solid investment. (NOTE – this is not a betting system per se, or a mechanical system so if you want the work done for you then this is not for you, BUT if you have an interest in horse racing and want to learn more, then £20 offers extremely good value for money).

BOTTOM LINE – you won’t get a quick system here at all – you’ll get a comprehensive guide (and detail like this means it will TAKE TIME!)

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Winners to Losers – gotta make my mind up!

When I see a wealth of good reviews for certain products, I always tend to follow the advice of my close personal showbiz rapping pal “the bloke with the big clock round his neck from Public Enemy” when he said “Don’t Believe The Hype”.

And so I look at the website www.winnerstolosers.com (another ecoverexperts website – hmmm!) and note the claim of £174,000 clear profit in 3 years. Of course the words “salt” and “a large pinch of” spring to mind with this profit figure which is an IDEALISED profit figure based on NO emotional attachments to the stakes you were placing on certain horses.

In clearer terms, some of the horses to lay are priced as high as 15! Now in the real world WITH REAL money (and not the idealised world of £174,000 profit, I would have to think twice about laying horses priced so high!) Further, results are calculated at SP taking 5% commission off (again this is highly inaccurate and not representative of REAL WORLD prices or profits).

The reasoning for the high strike rate then becomes clear doesn’t it? This is NOT a laying system focussing on short priced favourites (and thus to some extent controlling liability). The results are available at the website and I would advise that whenever you get an opportunity to inspect results prior to purchase, YOU MUST.

With laying systems, the key area to look at are the prices, in my mind and whether these are actual prices or guestimations (i.e. the SP of the horse plus a little bit).

Anyone can achieve a high strike rate laying biggish prices; the key factor is actually what impact a losing lay might have on betting bank, and momentum.

I have the manual and am keen to try it out and report back but the author does, consistently, mention losing runs and having a 50 point betting bank to be safe, as, on previous occasions a losing run resulted in a 37 point loss (NOTE – not a losing run of 37 – remember what I said about the size of odds! – OUCH!) Now, again returning to the real world, how, mentally, does the punter react to this? Hindsight shows us that alleged long-term profits are made.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Yes it’s a simple process (and again familiar to me – if I’d known I could flog it for £99 then…!) but I personally would not entertain these large odds. BUT let’s see if the strike rate compensates. So expect more to follow from me on this. One that can’t be dismissed as yet, BUT one that must be entered into in the knowledge that the odds you will be laying horses at will generally be quite large. (I personally prefer the 3 keys type of lay system where we look at laying at 3.5 or lower)

Kachina Racing

Run by Chris Beek operating a very personalised service, I’ve got a good feeling for this if the first few weeks of 2009 are anything to go by. He’s already bagged a 10/1 and 11/2 winner with his excellent gallop reports (which showed a 12 month profit last year). So do take a look at http://www.kachinaracing.co.uk. Both his gallop report service and Value Seeker service offer extremely good value for money.

Chris is steeped in horse racing and is a part owner too as well as branching out into being a jockey’s agent. Hope he can replicate last year’s profit – it all augurs well thus far.

No real news from Martin Blakey’s Pro Info tipping service, which, like Bernard Hibbert’s Sharp End System, has been very much affected by the weather. It will all blow over though as we edge onwards to Cheltenham Festival (cleverly run on my birthday each year – thanks chaps!)

This happens every year – you will soon receive a load of Cheltenham specials by mail order or in your inbox (oh no, I may have given the mighty Brookes an idea for an eBook – Cheltenham Project System Ultra Revolution (or something along those lines – God Forbid!)

My advice is to ignore all of these Cheltenham “specials” – it’s just chancers trying to fleece you – Bottom line – the coverage of Cheltenham is such that there is a ton of free and SUPERB information available. The 16/1 system will come into its own in the bumpers and lesser races COS THE IRISH ARE-A- COMING and rumour has it they like a punt and a pint. Your best bet is to invest in a copy of the Racing Post for Cheltenham and give ALL “specials” offers the heave ho (unless they’re free!) – they don’t know any more than is freely available to the public!

You have been warned nearly some 2 months ahead!

Lessons to Learn from the Pros?

The Racing Post has run a series of excellent articles this week probing betting professionals and the running themes seems to be SPECIALISATION – RESEARCH – PATIENCE – DISCIPLINE – STAKING – echoed too by the False Favourites book. The articles have given a great insight into the world of the pro, and the above 5 words echo in each interview – coincidence – I think not!

Yes, the usual! BUT these guys have made betting work.

It’s FA Cup weekend and expect a FACUP from one of the big boys this weekend. Me? I’ll be trying to stay awake having watched the Aussie Open at Silly O Clock in the morning! I will get back to the soccer blog if still awake. The Football Laying Code featured in the blog has been interesting but does suffer from big price itis (for a laying system, odds are as high as 7) – this means that a losing lay really does hurt! This makes Football Laying Code really a VOLUME system. We need many more winners than losers. It augurs well but is one of those marmite laying systems like Winners to losers – you can either tolerate laying big prices or you can’t.

Football laying code is unique in that it focuses on laying in the First Goal Odds market on Betfair (e.g. a goal will or will not be scored between the 11th and 20th minute for example).

This very fact means all lays are unmanageable (we cannot manage our positions because this market does NOT go in running)- we just have to hope they win! At present, it would seem that the football laying code is operating well and is, like Winners to Losers, one that needs to be persevered with. Me? I’d much prefer laying Spurs to qualify in the Carling Cup at 1.02 and trading when Burnley score! (Oh why did I split up with Mystic Meg?)

I do hope you find January’s newsletter of interest – I still have surplus articles on a number of systems which will be squeezed into this eletter or a future newsletter.

I’m off now to watch FARM FACTOR on Irish TV (I kid you not!) where farmers fight it out to be the best farmer in Ireland. Watch out for some insider information from my contact Farmer Palmer “get orf my laaand” from Viz who is my show biz expert!

Have a great weekend.

Regards

Clive Keeling