Hi,

No, not my words, but the words of thousands of punters gearing up for this new and exciting Flat Season, whose Irish compadres begin today on the all weather at Dundalk.

We’re all waiting for the boffin of Ballydoyle, Aiden O’Brien, to send out his charges this new season. How many top pedigree speed merchants are we going to see? Will Aidan break his winning record from last season?

No show from Mr O’Brien this evening at Dundalk, but a few of my show biz pals, who I have mentioned previously as worthy of following this season, are in action. I refer specifically to Irish Flat jockeys Pat Smullen, Jonny Murtagh and Wayne Lordan.

I suggest that the jockeys title in Ireland will be between these 3 and I will be keeping a record of all their mounts on the flat, especially horses priced 10/3 or bigger. I want to see if my theory regarding backing these jockeys, and their primary suppliers, Dermot Weld, Aiden O’Brien, and David Wachman throughout the season, will supply a profit.

I recall all the big priced winners last season for these 6 people, and hope for more of the same this season.

There’s one thing for sure though. When it comes to the Irish Classics, Aiden O’Brien’s the one you should be backing, simple as!

With the Flat in mind, there’s been a lot of talk about draw bias. I gave you some details last week regarding the draw bias, and was approached mid week by Matt Bisogno regarding his draw bias ideas.

I hope to begin trialling his service in the near future and will report back.

For me though, it will always be the betting market that is my signal whether to back or not – regardless of other factors.

Calm Down, Calm Down

But the jumps won’t go without a struggle as Liverpool hosts the Aintree Festival with, of course, the Grand National (or my ‘Gran’s National’ – the bookies quake in their boots as she puts her 25p each way down).

From Cheltenham we saw that bar Kasbah Bliss, price gappers performed extremely well indeed. Does this price gapper methodology work better with better quality horses in bigger prize money races? It would seem so.

The 16/1 system also mustn’t be dismissed

Oh What A Day!!

You’ll recall my 16/1 in your lunchtime article in last month’s newsletter. Well, here’s the haul from yesterday. STRAP YOURSELVES IN!!!

Spin n Span wins 8/1, Cote Dargent wins 7/1, Dispol Diva wins 7/2, Quarl Ego wins 4/1, This ones for Eddy wins 4/1 with Ballycroy Boy 2nd at 13/2 in the same race.

Surely this is not coincidence is it? Looking at sub 5/1 selections in order to reduce selections and increase strike rate, saw winners at 7/2 and 4/1 yesterday.

The problem I have with this market mover methodology, and the reason behind focussing on just 5/1 or lower odds is because there are days like yesterday where they all fly in – but then there are days where not one market mover over 5/1 places.

It will be an interesting exercise to see how these market movers have performed when all backed each way to level stakes regardless of price. There is definitely something here, the only thing to suss out is how to weed out some selections and leave the strongest and potentially most profitable.

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Speaking Of Blogs…

The place only selections continue unabated with another 100% week, but the odds, generally have been poor. Yeah, I know, I wish Denman could run every week at 3.55 place odds. Still I’m making a profit continuously and have done since the exercise started in November 2008. My confidence grows daily (cue an unplaced faller today!!) and it’s got to the stage where now I am extremely surprised if I don’t get a placed winner each day.

It just goes to show that crap odds can produce good profits if consistency of selection and high strike rate can be maintained (currently 95% or thereabouts strike rate which guarantees even a level stakes return).

This is but one method you should employ in your portfolio of systems. This one a day philosophy is at the heart of the system’s success. Don’t over extend yourself.

Could this one a day philosophy be transferred to laying? I certainly think so. Think about it, how many horses are running in a given day? How many horses lose in a given day? Do you think you’d be able to pick just one to lose per day? When put like this it does sound achievable doesn’t it?

My goal will be to add a one a day lay to my one a day back.

Remember, when we are laying it is the equivalent generally of backing odds on shots. Fixed Liability laying will allow you to control your exposure and allow you to increase the scope of the prices of the horses you lay.

It is this fixed liability form of staking which allows systems like Winners to Losers to curb losses, BUT fixed liability laying also means that potential returns are severely curtailed.

If you fancy level stakes backing using the place market, then I hope to be putting together an article on using certain market movers to get us decent place only bets at decent odds, whose strike rate is around 70%.

One reader, Barry, has been employing market movers with place only betting to great effect. He boasted to me recently a profit of 15 points a month, which is superb. My place only odds can be squeamishly low and I hope to piece together elements of Barry’s methods for you.

On the subject of readers, a shout out to Michael Curry who wrote to me recently regarding a cracking greyhound system he had. Well, Michael, if you’re out there email me at whatreallywins@yahoo.co.uk. I’d love to see your greyhound system as the dogs are an oft- neglected part of the bookies’ daily offerings and must offer us an opportunity to profit surely?

Bingo Masters Breakout!

Yes, I was scratching my head wondering how on earth I’d get a song title by the Fall into an eletter, when along comes the Bingo Blaster, the latest affiliate eBook being sold by the usual suspects. It’s available at http://www.bingobonusblaster.com. I’ll be getting my bingo pen marker out, my hair blue rinsed, and tea bags at the ready to give this a test.

From what I can gather, this eBook focuses on bonuses offered at online bingo halls.

If this interests you, then I would suggest NOT buying the eBook yet, but first Googling search terms such as ‘online bingo’, ‘online bingo bonuses’ – that kind of word combination.

You see, I can’t think there would be any “system” to use with online bingo – perhaps you could Google that too: ‘online bingo strategies’, ‘online bingo techniques’, ‘online bingo bonus strategies’ – you get the idea!

I do like trying to suss out eBooks without buying them, using the information freely available on the website and marketing emails. I suspect this might be a short- lived strategy and not something that can be operated long term, but I could be wrong.

Apparently the big bookies have been going mad for it too so there may be plenty of vendors whose bonuses you can take advantage of.

If anyone’s bought it, please do email me to let me know how you’ve got on.

The Tricks Of The Trade…

Thanks must go to Ian Galbraith for allowing me to reproduce his excellent expose on the tricks used to sell you a load of gubbins!! Here are some great pointers you can use, especially regarding online scam operators.

Over to Ian…

Pointers To Look Out For With Emails

Here are some of the pointers and tests to apply:

* Where does the email come from? If it comes from abroad, the last two or three digits of the email address will give a clue as to the country of origin. Many of the frauds emanate from Central Africa. Also anything that comes from America you can probably delete. Under American gambling laws they have no access to Betfair and what they know about British Racing can pretty much be written on the back of a stamp.

* Has the Author given his full name and possibly an address and phone number?

* Does he have a contact email address? – if so email him and ask him to phone you – if he does not call forget it. Is there a tangible results history? Go to the Racing Post Web Site and check a few results at random from their historical data.

Ian also shares with us some of the common scams used:

Some common scams:

* Backfitting – this is a process whereby somebody invents their own betting system and trawls through past races making results fit their system. The worst example I have seen was a couple of years ago. The Buswell system came with seven years results and on paper, produced just 35 losers from 1772 selections – a SR of 98%. The filters were bizarre including – No Bets in August, No bets on Sundays and multiple track exclusions when cross referenced to different types of horse’s headgear and tracks. When I paper traded it I had one qualifying bet from 48 days of tracking and that came in third – the cost £99. Backfitting is difficult to spot. If you feel a system has merit contact the author and ask for a thirty day free trial.

* The general rule that applies to all tipster forecasts is if it looks too good to be true – then it probably is. If in doubt, check that it comes from a reputable publishing company and demand a free trial.

* The Address List Scam – Take a list of addresses and divide it into three or four. Select a reasonable race and send one of the first four favourites to each of the separate lists as a “free selection”. When one of the horses wins follow up that winning list with an offer of another three selections from the same “insider
informant” for £100. The con man now has his money and can follow up with anything in the next few days.

* False accounting – this type of scam is rife and goes along the lines “Last week we had winners at 5/1, 6/1, 11/4 and 3/1, what they forget to tell you is that they also tipped six
other horses that lost.

* Bet for us – this is a total rip off and usually commences along the lines “We are so successful with our bets that the bookmakers will no longer take our bets – when we send you our selections please put £50 on for yourself and £50 for us”. If the selection wins you are invoiced at £50 x SP for the winnings, If it loses you take the full £100 loss. Avoid these scams like the plague. Gullible punters have lost hundreds and thousands of pounds on these bets by chasing their losses. If contacted by phone sound all enthusiastic and then ask them to send you a betting bank of thee thousand pounds of their money to offset potential losses – that will be the last you will hear from them.

* Insider information – this is the oldest scam in the business. The informer claims to have contacts in leading stables with staff whom he pays good money to, for inside information. In my experience stable staff and jockeys are among the worst tipsters in the business.

* Watch out for phoney track records – News reaches my desk this week that a fraudulent site is selling downloads of the Betfair grid to which the recipient can add his own runners, odds and race titles. It won’t eliminate all doubt, but if the claims look suspicious check results with the Racing Post Site. Thanks must go to Ian Galbraith at www.iangalbraith.com for sharing his thoughts. It’s all familiar territory isn’t it!! Remember the onus is on you the buyer, ALWAYS!

Well, it’s that time of the month again, newsletter writing time, and I’ve got plenty to cram in next month’s newsletter, including updates on the systems and tipsters who are performing the best and most consistently.

We’ll also be looking deeper into fixed liability laying as a real strategy to profit from. And with the footy season nearing its end, I’ll give readers a round up of what works – and what you should be using for next season,

All this and more.

Stay tuned.

I’m off now to clickety click with 2 fat ladies

Have a great weekend

Clive Keeling