Hi,

Yes folks, the countdown begins – place yer bets on whether I will be a new uncle before Xmas day or after Xmas day. I, of course, have insider information and have placed my bets accordingly and suspect I will be an uncle BEFORE Xmas day. Sorry, all of the big prices have gone and Betfair have suspended their “Clive to be new uncle before Xmas” market and, instead, installed me as favourite to be Sports Personality of the Year 2009 – so lump on!

As you can imagine, my brother is bouncing off the walls in anticipation of being a father for the first time, but as Billy Connolly told me in Killarney when I asked him if he had any advice for a new father: “RUN AWAY! You will turn into an ATM Machine for the next 18 years” (as this is pre watershed I cannot include the standard Connolly swearies!)

Yes Bro, you need to subscribe to What Really Wins Money and What Really Makes Money, and the website:

www.feckmethisbabyisexpensiveIwillnowhavetocutdownonthedrinkingandgoingoutandstufflikethatforthenextfewyears.com

Looks like the new arrival will be thrown into the deep end and have to endure brussel sprouts and turkey sandwiches in the first few moments of life! YIKES!

Well, I am back on Guernsey and it is amazing – there has been NO RAIN whatsoever! I nearly fell off my chair! I have been able to keep the blogs going this week but little else as regards tracking systems (will get stuck in on my return to Ireland)

The Place backing is still delivering another 100% week this week and with my daily practice, the repetition is sharpening my skill in being able to interpret the Betting Forecast in the Racing Post to enable me to nail a horse with a solid chance of placing.

One of my friends in Guernsey has been so taken with my success to date that he has opened up a Betfair account in order to do the one-a-days. If this strike rate continues, he could be sitting on 5 figures this time next year! On day 2 as we speak, he just “Bets and Goes” and his target today is a whopping £1.45!

I am growing increasingly confident about this place only betting and will explore other avenues apart from the target profit per day compounding.

Accumulator betting may work very well with this betting (simply put we roll over betting bank and winnings from previous bet onto the next) Yes, it necessitates 100% strike rate, BUT imagine this – I am now nearly coming up to a month of 100% strike rates and if I had rolled over winnings on all bets thus far, I would be spending Christmas in the Bahamas! I would limit betting cycles to, say 4 or 5, as it would be easier this way to capture winning runs, and, perhaps put aside a small sum of money expressly for accumulator betting over a month long period (money I can write off incase I hit one loser). Plenty to think about that’s for sure.

I am trying to write all of the information pertaining to place only betting in one place and have provisionally titled the work “WAR AND PLACE” because it is as long as War and Peace! I have learned a lot of key distinctions to enable me to keep up the impressive strike rate, and this is something those of you who have read the blog at www.back-lay-trade-horses-football.blogspot.com should have learned from too.

16/1 System Delights

Elsewhere, if you fancy bigger prices, the last 2 days alone have seen some “bleedin’ obvious” 16/1 system bets – the first was Naughty By Nature who ran on the 17th December and won at 10/1.

Those in the know will have seen the 25/1 in the betting forecast, noted the horse opened up at 14/1 in the live market and was backed into 10/1 and won! There was much head scratching on the Betfair forum over how this horse could have won. Me? I just had a chuckle!

Yesterday saw another candidate for “bleedin obvious 16/1 type system bet of the year” in a horse called Dream Falcon.

Dream Falcon ran at Ludlow yesterday and won at 7/1. Now this is the interesting part. Dream Falcon was 25/1 in the betting forecast! Coincidence? hmmmmm. I’m not too sure!

Looking for these “bleedin obvious” selections really will pay off. These selections are as clear as day and stand out like a sore thumb don’t they!

Naughty by Nature also fell into the category of a Trading Secrets Plan system bet (www.thetradingplan.co.uk) and was included amongst the winners at  5-1,9-2,10-1,10-1,15-2,12-1,12-1 along with 5 losers. The methodology is proven and whether you want to avail of the 16/1 system for free here or look at the Trading Plan version is up to you, but both will open your eyes up to interpreting the live market and betting forecast and unearthing potential gambles.

A reader asked me mid week why I did not include an update on www.pro-info.co.uk last week – the simple reason was that there were no selections in that week that I could update you on. The first bet for 19 days came on Monday 15th December, in Moscow Catch who won at 5/2.

I do hope this service can continue in the same form in the future. It is a discernable and selective service and the testimonials on the website attest to this.

Because of the weather affecting selections, Martin Blakey has included his own personal “notebook” selections which have performed superbly since he introduced these as an addition to the main service. Winners at prices up to 16/1 have been most welcome and a 38 point profit on these bets since the notebook horses were introduced will buy you a few mince pies!

All in all this looks an exciting prospect for the New Year. The hope is that the strike rate continues and the prices are as tasty as they have been in some cases in the past.

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Each Way Selections Over The Jumps

With the jumps now firmly ingrained in our days’ racing, now is a time, I feel, to dust off the each way strategies I have written about in the past and apply them over the jumps.

Here’s a race from today which will show you a good example of the kind of methodology we can use in unearthing potential each way jumps horses.

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Fistral Beach, 3/1 Run For Moor, 11/2 Presenting Forever, 6/1 Midnight Sail,
12/1 Dover´s Hill, 16/1 Emperor Concerto, 20/1 Crime Dont Pay,  Project Gallery, 25/1 Bacchanalianbertie,  Minella Theatre, 33/1 Rock Salmon, 40/1 Rateable Value, 50/1 More The Merrier, 66/1 Bruff Academy,  Gypsy Bob,  Lady Omara.

At first inspection a big field here. One short priced favourite, a near market rival in Run for Moor, and 2 horses at 11/2 and 6/1. After these 2 horses is a big price move to 12/1 Dovers Hill.

Are you ahead of me already? Surely Presenting Forever and Midnight Sail look decent each way prospects incase the 2 main contenders falter over the jumps (and very rarely will the 1-2-3 in the betting forecast become the 1-2-3 final result!)

These selections are strengthened by the live betting market which shows Fistral Beach at 6/4, Run for the Moor at 5/2, and the other 2 horses at 6/1 and 7/1. In the live market the next horse is 20/1!

We can assume, I hope, that the race should revolve around the 4 main horses? If we can make this assumption, then we can back Presenting Express and Midnight Sail each way at 7/1 and hope that one causes an upset, or that both place (when we will see a marginal return on our outlay).

Couple with this, the fact that one of the horses is a Robert “Choc” Thornton and Alan King horse, and we have a decent chance!

It crossed my mind seeing the strong performance of the main stables whether we could resurrect the trainer/jockey combos used in Irish racing but apply them to each way selections (4/1 or bigger) over the jumps.

Immediately for me, Thornton/King stands out, and an eye can be kept on Thomas/Venetia Williams and Walsh/Nicholls (but alas predominantly short prices). Another combo of interest is Geraghty/Henderson and McCoy on an each way priced horse.

I am sure that judicious backing of certain of these combinations when the prices are right and the race indicates the horses have good each way prospects may pay dividends.

This I think is something I will pursue in the blog: www.back-lay-trade-horses-football.blogspot.com

Footy Tastic?

I cannot make my mind up about www.oversandundersbetting.com. There were certainly some reasonable results last week and I feel that creating a shortlist of prospective qualifiers and then PERSONALLY selecting just one or 2 will pay dividends.

I am hopeful, once I have tallied all weekend selections together, that a profit will ensue. Bets are predominantly odds on which naturally necessitates a 50%+ strike rate.

I like the logic behind the selection methodology and am hopeful of a profit. I must reiterate I concentrate solely on over 2.5 goals and only major Premiership type leagues throughout Europe, along with the Championship.

As well as this, the Football Laying Code got one loser last week at odds of 7, which, as you can imagine, wipes out 6 previous winnings – to quote my close pal Homer J: “D’OH!”

The hope is that constant use on ALL qualifying selections produce enough selections and winners to negate the odd loser. Again, I am only using at the weekend but if I remain consistent in my usage this should give a good idea of performance.

It will be interesting to see whether the methodology here can be used to nail us some strong BACK bets at decent odds rather than laying. I will collate results and see.

I’m off now to line my stomach in preparation for the inevitable wetting the baby’s head that will occur in a Guernsey pub imminently, whilst availing myself of the last few prices in the “Clive to be an uncle before Sunday” markets which have just formed – with the news my sister in law is in the hospital as I write!

Have yourself a very Happy Christmas!

Regards
Clive Keeling