I have been experimenting with traditional 16/1 type system bets which can be done in the hour before racing begins (you’ll recall that the 16/1 system is ideally to be used with the live betting markets).  The idea behind my experiment is obvious. It will free us from the need to actually follow the live betting market.

So what’s involved?

Recap the 16/1 system at www.canonburypublishing.com/16to1

Apply it now to the early price markets at midday or an hour before racing begins.

Note any potential market movers and place an each way bet on them (their prices generally are big enough for each way betting to be a viable option).

It’s early in the experiment but I thought I’d walk you through a few potential bets:

16th February 2009

205 MARKET RASEN

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Glimmer Of Light, Tosula, 5/1 Festival Dreams, 13/2 Bawnafaugh, 8/1 Gobejolly, 10/1 Safin, Zorro De La Vega, 16/1 No Telling, 20/1 Government, 33/1 Winds Supreme, 50/1 Purr.

Followers of the 16/1 system will know that heavy ground and betting are not ideal bedfellows, but why on earth is Safin 4/1 in the midday betting market?  Note the 10/1 in the betting forecast.  The 16/1 system tells us to account for non-runners BUT there are no non runners.

You’ll note, too, that I am dipping under 16/1 for possible selections (of course focusing on traditional 16/1 system bets will produce bigger priced qualifiers).

SAFIN WINS AT 7/2

215 CARLISLE

BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Babe Heffron, Johns Square, 11/2 Its A Classic, 6/1 Mr Twins, 13/2 Mitchel Henry, 8/1 Seek The Truth, 10/1 Ballynure, Nicozetto, 12/1 Luzenie, 14/1 Gunadoir, 16/1 Jacksonville, 50/1 Tully Hill.

Ballynure I noted was 7/1 in the betting. Again this is not much of a move at all, at least not as big as I would ideally like, but I have noted the 5/1 favourite and deduced that Ballynure has as good a chance as any of these. Again heavy ground is the major concern.

UNPLACED

325 CARLISLE

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Le Roi Rouge, 4/1 Norminster, 7/1 Oso Magic, 8/1 Bog Oak, Euro American, 10/1 Hollows Mill, 12/1 Stormy Beech, 14/1 Cantgeton, Et Maintenant, 16/1 Incorporation, 20/1 Anglican.

Heavy ground greets us again but Anglican, at 20/1 in the betting forecast, is at lunchtime showing at 14/1 in the live betting market. This is a more traditional 16/1 type system bet.

UNPLACED.

400 CARLISLE

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Auroras Encore, 6/4 Psychomodo, 8/1 Storymaker, 14/1 Kempski, 20/1 Pistol Basc, 40/1 Almond Court, Autumngold.  Pistol Basc, 20/1 in the betting forecast, is 16/1 in the live market at lunchtime. This is another heavy ground race but Spotlight tells us! Pistol Basc has fallen on two of four starts over British fences and shouldn’t be good enough but does handle heavy going.” This race is only a seven-runner race, which pays out for two places so we have to hope that Pistol Basc does not fall again UNPLACED.

410 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Smooth Sovereign, 3/1 Spartan Prince, 8/1 Rosko, 10/1 Ensnare, The Staffy, Tillietudlem, 14/1 Simonside, 16/1 Fire Me Gun, Uncle Bertie, 20/1 Alittlemoreflair, 25/1 Keen As Mustard, Rannoch Rose, 50/1 Fine The World.  Simonside is 14/1 in the betting forecast yet appears, at midday, as 7/2 in the live betting market. A very eyecatching market mover and perhaps the template for what we should be looking at.

12th 8/1.

450 MARKET RASEN

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lemonade Jack, 9/4 Elsafeer, 3/1 Harellie, 5/1 Louis Ludwig, 33/1 Stanley Hall.

This is a national hunt flat race, better known as a bumper, so market moves are to be heeded. Here, 33/1 Stanley Hall is 18/1 in places in the live midday betting market. Worth a bet given the huge price but expectations must remain low I would suspect.  4th 33/1.

15th February, 2009
240 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Rapid Increase, 4/1 Pret A Thou, 9/2 Omme Antique, Scalini’s, 11/2 Shake The Barley, 13/2 Raysrock, 10/1 Silver Sister, 20/1 Sarahs Gift, 25/1 Mud Monkey, Phoenix Eye, 33/1 Jamesdoubleyou.

Saras Gift now 12/1 in places – one non-runner at 25/1 should not have caused the potential price cut. 5th 10/1.

315 LEOP

BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Splurge, 6/1 Fen Game, Mourne Rambler, 7/1 Kandari, Kennel Bridge, 10/1 Flag Of Honour, Mission Possible, See U Bob, 12/1 Alexander Severus, Glenquest, Meritorious, Turtle Time Lucky, 14/1 Enter The Indian, Port La Chaine, 16/1 All Diamonds, 20/1 Almanyan.  Alexander Severus into 8/1 – only a 4 point move in a 16 runner field so not a strong market mover. 3rd 9/1.

340 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Parlesotho, 7/2 Double Hit, 8/1 Shenanigan, Sisterhood, 9/1 Dansimar, 10/1 Figurita, Giovanna, 12/1 Joli Classical, Mewstone, 14/1 Butterfly Rose, Callerlilly, 25/1 Green ‘N’ Gold, Saphire Night.

Sapphire night 14/1 5th 11/1.

14th February 2009

140 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Belcantista, 9/2 Dave’s Dream, 8/1 American Trilogy, 10/1 Dancing Tornado, Lough Derg, Onnix, 12/1 Chief Yeoman, Issaquah, Wingman, 14/1 Whiteoak, 16/1 Mamlook, Serabad, 25/1 My Turn Now, 40/1 Tender Falcon, 200/1 Petito.

Mamlook now 12/1 in heavy ground and an open race

4th 11/1

150 UTTOX

BETTING FORECAST: Evs McEldowney, 6/1 Moonlight Music, 8/1 Poliglotti, 10/1 Villochely, Watch Out, 12/1 Bret Maverick, Gouranga, Silver Steel, 20/1 Thethirdoftheforth, 25/1 Port Erne, Silver Spruce, 33/1 Iris’s Flyer, Mapledurham, 50/1 Ricci De Mare, 66/1 Night Reveller, Pugnacity, 100/1 Layed Back Rocky, Spartan Encore.

Villochely 7/1 faller 9/2 and Gouranga 8/1 – 2nd 11/2 – not an eye-popping market move but this is a heavy ground seller.

220 UTTOXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Naughty By Nature, 6/1 Mars Rock, 13/2 Bewery Man, Paradise Expected, 15/2 Pelo Du Bief, 9/1 Badly Bruised, 11/1 Quiny Boy, 12/1 Capal Dubh Alainn, 14/1 Darn Hot, Vicario, 16/1 It’s Rumoured, 20/1 Arthurian, Bamby, Magnifico, 25/1 Hever Road, Youluckyman, 40/1 Mustakhlas, 50/1 Seconditis.

Youluckyman currently showing at 16/1 in places 4th 20/1 – 4 places in this race.

235 LING

BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Scarab, 4/1 American Spin, 5/1 Horseshoe Reef, 7/1 Action Impact, 10/1 Cold Turkey, 12/1 Encircled, Sam Lord, War Of The Roses, 14/1 Aypeeyes, 16/1 Wild Desert, 20/1 Ameeq, 25/1 Weststern.

Ameeq showing 12/1, 14/1 in places – need to see

that kind of price near the off for consideration as a

market mover (this stands with all early market

movers). 11th 25/1

240 WINCANTON

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Punjabi, 100/30 Songe, 6/1 Ashkazar, Takeroc, 9/1 Whiteoak, 11/1 Five Dream, 14/1 Ashley Brook, 20/1 Helens Vision, 100/1 Simply Blue.

Ashkazar now 7/2 1st 10/3

245 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Wendel, 7/4 Chariot Charger, 12/1 Dreamy Sweeney, 14/1 Doctor Pat, 16/1 Captain Americo, 25/1 Riddleofthesands, 33/1 Son Histoire, 100/1 Alldunnandusted.

Dr Pat and Dream Sweeney both 8/1 faller 12/1 3rd

10/1

305 LING

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Folio, 4/1 Basra, 9/2 Risque Heights, 9/1 Mafeking, 10/1 Allanit, Alpes Maritimes, Mataram, 12/1 Man Of Gwent, 14/1 King Olav, 16/1 Andaman Sunset, Mafeking is absent – will this affect the market? If not, then why is Man of Gwent currently 4/1? 3rd 7/2.

310 WIN

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Charity Lane, 4/1 Midnight Chase, 9/2 Khachaturian, 6/1 Mendo, 10/1 Captain Americo, 12/1 Portland Bill, 14/1 Snake Charmer, 20/1 Ned Ludd.

Ned Ludd 16/1 and 14/1 in places – the straight 8 –heavy ground – big price. 8th 16/1.

330 UTTOX

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Take The Breeze, 3/1 Smoothly Does It, 9/2 Mohayer, 5/1 Make Haste, 11/2 Kings Quay, 16/1 Picot De Say, Share Option.  Picot de Say now 10/1 and 12/1 in places BUT only 2 the place faller 10/1.

340 WIN

BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Tarateeno, 5/1 Classic Chic, Doctored, 11/2 Devil’s Creek, 6/1 Sweet Optomist, 7/1 Take A Mile, 9/1 Peacefull Waters, 20/1 Montana Gold, 25/1 Tavalu.

Montana Gold 14/1 and 12/1 in places 4th 6/1.

13 February 2009

205 SANDOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Torphichen, 6/1 James De Vassy, Trenchant, 10/1 Art Exhibition, True Blue Saga, 16/1 Border Owl, 25/1 Psi, 33/1 Astrodome.  True Blue Saga 6/1 market mover. Soft ground and a McCoy hot pot. 1.19 to place. Will these market movers prove accurate or false signals? 6th 7/1 215 LINGFIELD BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Badge Of Honour, 7/1 Diamond Twister, 8/1 Bishop Rock, Garter Knight, 9/1 Gaselee, 12/1 El Bravo, 25/1 Stormy’s Prelude, 33/1 Broughton Beck, Milemilia.

Price gapper in a maiden race. Still odds on but Diamond Twister is now 1st 11/2 4/1, tightening the price gap.

An odds on maiden horse. Garter Knight the market mover into 9/2 8th 8/1.

310 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Bannister Lane, 3/1 Mr Big, 11/2 Triggernometry, 16/1 Heart Springs, 20/1 Sir Brastias, 25/1 Cruising River, The Big Breakfast, 100/1 Saddlers Blaze.

3 under 12/1. Sir Brastias now 12/1 and Cruising River 20/1 and 16/1 in places are the market movers – amateur riders event so no bet 5th 12/1 and pulled up 12/1.

330 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Desert Lark, 4/1 Tunder Bool, 6/1 High Five Society, 10/1 Desert Lover, Jiminor Mack, Kielty’s Folly, 12/1 Carry On Cleo, Glamoroso, 14/1 Pembo, Spy Gun, 20/1 Bobering, 25/1 Little Firecracker, 33/1 Kai Mer.  Kai Mer 18/1 in places 11th 22/1.

420 SANDOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Hohlethelonely, 13/2 Suntini, 8/1 Gabreselassie, 9/1 Youngstown, 10/1 Darstardly Dick, Silk Affair, Troque, 12/1 Blazing Desert, 16/1 Northern Lad, Reblis, 20/1 Jean Le Poisson, Kadouchski, Sangfroid, Wise Men Say, 25/1 Quelclasse, 33/1 That’s An Honour.  Silk affair now 7/2 1st 9/2.

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 King’s Majesty, 9/2 William’s Way, 5/1 Ardmaddy, 7/1 Sand Repeal, 9/1 Zalkani, 10/1 Saloon, Vinces, 14/1 Spume, 16/1 Captain Mainwaring, 33/1 Capitalise.  Zalkani and Spume market movers – 6/1 and 10/1 in the live market 5th 7/1 and 6th 10/1.

12 February 2009

120 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 General Tufto, Jordi Roper, Louisiade, 5/1 Fun In The Sun, King Of The Beers, 12/1 Government, 14/1 Rub Of The Relic, 25/1 Lancaster Lad, Tiger’s Rocket, 33/1 Daggerman.  Rub Of The Relic now 7/1 with Daggerman a non runner (who will not affect the revised market). This is a poor apprentice ridden handicap so we must take this potential move in context. That said, fav at 3/1 hints at an open race 3rd 6/1.

140 CHEPSTOW

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Seefin Mountain, 7/2 Intensifier, Prince Sabaah, 9/1 Bella Haze, 10/1 Harry Feversham, 12/1 Finnish Melody, Zafranagar, 20/1 Heroes, 25/1 Maidstone Mercury, 50/1 Nahanni King, 100/1 Ana Buachaill Dana, Bold Phoenix, Lunces Lad, Smiths Tempest, Tigger, 200/1 Native Cherry.  Bella Haze now 4/1 1st 7/2.

155 THURLES

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Power Of Attorney, 5/1 Madman, 6/1 Herkel, 7/1 Keats Dream, 8/1 Grange Alainn, 10/1 Tawaagg, 12/1 Castaneous, 14/1 Cloverhill Lad, Fairhaven, Stretch The Truth, 20/1 Cappry Star, Kellys Charm, Sweet Peak, 25/1 Glenogra Cailin, Riscal, 33/1 Alderfield, Light Mist, Risky Life, Tawaag now 5/2! Soft /Heavy at Thurles and a maiden hurdle 2nd 4/1.

220 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Nordic Light, 7/2

Spanish Ace, 4/1 Desert Light, 6/1 Martingrange Lass, 10/1 One Way Ticket, 14/1 Flying Indian, Itshim, 25/1 Heavenly Encounter.

Itshim 5/1 BUT why is Spanish Ace out to 10/1? Nordic light is a price gapper in the live market. 15/8 – 4/1 This is a class 7 classified stakes race and is not ideal for me but there are 8 runners so its 3 the place 1st 9/2.

320 CHEPSTOW

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Presenting Copper, 9/2 Something Wells, 11/2 Osako D’Airy, 15/2 Money Order, 8/1 Gold Heart, 12/1 Mister Potter, 16/1 Moncadou, 25/1 Mister Quasimodo, 33/1 Bring Me Sunshine, Master Somerville.

Master Somerville now 12/1 5th 16/1.

335 STHL

BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Back In The Red, 4/1 This Ones For Eddy, 5/1 Figaro Flyer, 8/1 Cheshire Rose, Desperate Dan, 10/1 Efistorm, Replicator, Spic ‘n Span, 14/1 Fast Freddie, 16/1 Mandelieu.  Cheshire Rose 9/2 in places 6th 9/1.

355 CHEPSTOW

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 The Sawyer, 11/4 Pretty Star, 3/1 Notabotheronme, 7/1 Malko De Beaumont, 10/1 Stolen Moments, 12/1 Leading Authority, 33/1 Victory Gunner.

Victory gunner 12/1 and Leading Authority 7/1. Only a 7 runner race though but is over heavy 1st 11/1 and 6th 7/1.

410 STHL

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Flores Sea, Mrs Bun, 9/2 Obe Royal, 13/2 Norcroft, 10/1 Run Free, 14/1 Haroldini, 20/1 Tyzack, 25/1 Bright Falcon.  Flores 11/10. Haroldini 10/1 and Tyzack 14/1 but interesting that Flores Sea has hardened at the head of the market in this 8 runner race 5th 9/1 and 2nd 11/1.

440 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Highly Regal, 4/1 Inside Story, 9/2 Salt Of The Earth, 6/1 Fine Ruler, 7/1 Lopinot, 8/1 Sir Ike, 10/1 Snowy Indian, 12/1 Alexander Guru, 33/1 Annes Rocket.  Alexander Guru 8/1 7th 8/1.

445 STHL

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Kingaroo, 9/2 Alimarr, Dispol Diva, 5/1 Just Five, 8/1 Le Petit Vigier, Tiffany Lady, 20/1 Where You Will, 25/1 Ringo Zaar, The Canny Dove.

The Canny Dove 14/1 6th 8/1.

11/2

Esprit de Midas won well as expected. Another poor price but rock solid. Blacktoft won and at 1.21 was a lot better priced.

110 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Rapid City, 11/4 Cantabilly, 9/2 Sweet World, 11/2 Inquest, 14/1 Barodine, Royal Straight, 20/1 Bombardier Wells, Jayyid, 25/1 Maddy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sweet World will appreciate the return to the flat and makes some appeal but Rapid City has found his level now and has solid claims.  With the success of a couple of 16/1 type bets yesterday (Cape Of Storms winning at 5/1 – 10/1 in the betting forecast), I thought it would be interesting to note any market movers and see how they perform.  Royal Straight now 9/1, Jayyid now 14/1 and Maddy now 12/1 – perhaps too many qualifiers in a selling race – why, too is Sweet World in double figure odds. Still the prices are high and it would be a good exercise to see if a profit could accrue by backing all three horses each way.  7th 8/1, 8th 7/1 and 4th 10/1.

205 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Rough Sketch, 4/1 Ready To Crown, 7/1 Mix N Match, Play Up Pompey, 8/1 Lytham, 10/1 Noah Jameel, The Graig, 12/1 Moyoko, 14/1 Elliwan, 20/1 Sestet, Siryena, 25/1 Alucica, Snake Skin, 50/1 Bid Art.

A big price difference with Ellwan at 5/1 currently 6th 5/1.

210 LING

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Prairie Hawk, 6/1 Orchard House, 10/1 Prince Of Medina, Safin, 12/1 Mulaazem, 14/1 Irish Ballad, Magic Kahyasi, 20/1 Rock Peak, Rockjumper, 25/1 Play Master, 33/1 Bella Medici.  Rockjumper a non-runner. This falls into my price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap ‘system’.  Market movers to note? Magic Khayasi 9/2 and Irish Ballad 6/1 are the market movers. 10th 6/1 and 2nd 6/1.

240 LING

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Silca Meydan, 7/2 Dance And Dance, 4/1 Phoenix Rising, 10/1 Cloudesley, Joannadarc, Viva La Vida, 12/1 Highgate Cat, 16/1 Independent James, Indian Story, Set The Trend, 33/1 Kings On The Roof, 50/1 Fleuron.  Set The Trend is 7/2 and Cloudesley 7/1.  Dance and Dance I remember under Spencer last time – I backed it to place, but this is a bigger field maiden race. 1st 4/1 and 6th 7/1.

410 LING

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Nicky Nutjob, 7/2 Derringbay, 9/2 True Britannia, 5/1 Good Buy Dubai, 7/1 Peintre D’Argent, 8/1 Maison D’Or, 16/1 Squad, 25/1 Spring Quartet, 33/1 Calypso Prince.  Spring Quartet now 12/1 5th 12/1.

9/2

235 PLUMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Millenium Royal, 7/4 Wind Instrument, 10/1 Pangbourne, 25/1 Wheres Johnny.

A Two2-horse race and the live market mirrors the betting forecast. 3 miles 2 furlongs on soft is offputting 1.26 and 1.55.

Pangbourne 13/2 may hint at interest in that one? 2nd 15/2.

345 PLUMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Miss Sarenne, 15/8 Ruthenoise, 2/1 Quaspia, 25/1 Never Lost, 33/1 Ashleys Petale, She’s So Pretty, 66/1 Shenandoah Girl, 150/1 Tara Whale.

8-runner race down to 7.

Why is Ashley’s Petal 14/1? The non-runner at 150/1 would not have adversely affected the market 1.19, 1.39 and 1.35. Still 3 places – Ashley’s Petale 16 and 2.86 to place 3rd 14/1.

So what can we conclude from this?  Well, the performance of the big priced traditional 16/1 type system bets has been poor overall apart from Victory Gunner at 11/1. The main trend I see at this early stage is the good performance of those priced around 7/2 and 4/1.

Here are the results of those in this price bracket.  1st 7/2, 1st 10/3, 3rd 7/2, 1st 9/2, 1st 7/2, 2nd 4/1, 1st 9/2 1st 4/1 Is this an anomaly or are midday market movers nearer the head of the betting market those we should consider? As to double figure odds selections in the traditional 16/1 system mould:

15 horses unplaced, 1 winner at 11/1, 4th at 20/1 (in a race paying out 4 places), 3rd 10/1 2nd 11/1 and 3rd 14/1.  Hardly results worth writing home about.

Bottom line

If we want to do the 16/1 system without following the live betting market, it would be prudent to focus on potential market movers who are at the head of the betting market (or who have MOVED to the head of the betting market), and who go off at a price no greater than 5/1.

It would seem there is a pattern emerging as regards horses who are generally 10/1 or bigger in the betting forecast who are backed into 7/2, 4/1, 5/1 and around that figure in the live betting market.  These, I would suggest, could be the horses to focus on, rather than hoping that the big double figure horses run above their prices (although we would have made a profit thanks to Victory Gunner with these bigger priced selections, we have to HOPE that a winner arrives to negate all of the horses who go unplaced).