Hi,
Yes, as we edge ever closer to the magnificent Cheltenham
Festival, every tipster and their grandmother is releasing their Cheltenham Previews. Now you have a choice. You can follow the shrewdies, whose advice is along the lines of:
“I think Masterminded has an outstanding chance of finishing in the first 4” – yes he would, mate, cos he’s 1 /4 on!
“Kauto Star for me this year is one to follow” – you don’t say!
You must have been up hours analysing to come to that
conclusion!
Yes, Kauto Star and Masterminded are 2 selections chosen
by a shrewd ex jockey in the Racing Post! This “expert” has
put in absolutely no work whatsoever and has selected
obvious horses at obvious prices.
Well, here’s a proper Cheltenham Preview from someone
who’s actually done some work on it!
But before I give you the website link for all 24 races, here’s a taster – a couple more races at the festival.
3.20pm SMURFIT CHAMPION HURDLE
2m 110y
POSITIVES
Twenty two of the last 25 Champion Hurdle winners won last time out and 16 of the last 20 winners had previously won at Cheltenham (which BINOCULAR has yet to achieve).
The other important statistic for this race is; 17 from the last
18 runnings went to a horse in the front six of the betting, so
shocks are very rare in this race.
Another ingredient I use to pin point the winner for this race is to look for horses who have been first or second in a previous festival.
NEGATIVES
Horses aged 9 or over, there have been just 3 winners since 1951, so for those of you fancying, SUBLIMITY,
HARCHIBALD, BRAVE INCA and HARDY EUSTACE beware!
CONCLUSION
Obviously BINOCULAR is a very short priced favourite (Evens with some firms). I personally never bet anything under 2-1 or recommend a bet to my clients under that price. The horse that catches my eye, meets all the statistics and rates the value of the race, is CELESTIAL HALO, He is a winner at a previous festival, comes here on the back of a win and rates decent each way value at around 12-1.
4.00pm CROSS COUNTRY H’CP CHASE
3m 7f
POSITIVES
This race has only been a feature of the Festival for 4 years, but already some strong patterns are emerging.
The Irish have won all 4 renewals and surprisingly have filled 11 of the 12 win and place positions in that time – so it is simple: look only at the Irish contingent. One trainer especially to note is Enda Bolger; he has won 3 from 4 runnings of the race.
The best trial race for this contest has been the P P Hogan
Memorial Chase run at Punchestown over 3m in February.
Amazingly, this race has provided the winner of ALL 3
previous winners at the Festival since it has been in existence.
L’AMI was this year’s winner and was trained by Enda Bolger!
NEGATIVES
Horses aged 7 or younger have an extremely poor record,
only 1 horse from 68 runners has been successful, so ignore youngsters in this contest.
Unusually, a trainer to be wary of in this type of contest is Paul Nicholls; his strike rate is only 1-36 in these races.
CONCLUSION
Two horses that shine out like a beacon for the race are the
Enda Bolger trained pair L’AMI and GARDE CHAMPETRE.
Given that he won the best trail for this race at Punchestown in February, ready preference is for L’AMI.
Great analysis again from Martin Blakey, and certainly Enda
Bolger (I keep typing Edna for some reason then having to go back and alter the n and the d!) has farmed the cross country races at the Festival. With the retirement of Spotthedifference, the 2 horses mentioned by Martin Blakey have taken over Spot’s mantle and my preference would be for the horse chosen by Nina Carberry on the day.
If you want this kind of analysis then here’s the link for you:
http://pro-info.co.uk/index.php?page=preview
Do read and study the analysis prior to the Festival (Monday week I believe) and I’m sure you’ll find this free preview very helpful and insightful indeed.
My thanks must go to Martin Blakey for agreeing to supply this preview for free. I know it can certainly be sold commercially so it is a kind gesture.
ENJOY! And hopefully we can bag a few of the more likely
selections.
Oh And don’t Forget the 16/1 System!
A great example of a 16/1 system selection came yesterday…
The 200 Wincanton saw a horse called Azjil line up at 8/1
early doors, going off at 10/1. Now this horse was 50/1 in the Racing Post Betting Forecast.
AND HE WON! Coincidence? No I don’t think so.
I would suspect that in certain races at the Cheltenham
Festival there will be the odd interesting market mover. Last
year’s stand out market mover, from memory, was a horse
called Psycho who ran in the 520 Cheltenham on 14th March 2008 (out of the glare of the live TV cameras)
The horse was a 16/1 system selection, going off 5/1 favourite and here’s the analysis:
“It was not hard to see why Psycho was so popular in the
market after his effort last time, even though he fell at the last, as Tiger Cry, who won the Grand Annual earlier on the card, was well behind him before he came down. Having pulled very hard on the way to the post, he was hidden away at the back of the field. He was not the only horse to look to have plenty to give as the race took shape, but one can be fairly sure that had Paul Carberry started his effort earlier, he would have won. Not only did he fail to land the race, he has in all probability blown his mount’s seemingly attractive handicap mark.”
This horse should have won rather than the 2nd place his jockey manufactured for him.
There will be opportunities I am sure during the 24 races of the Festival in races less glamourous than the Gold Cup.
The 16/1 system variation I unveiled in the February
newsletter has been spitting out winners and placed horses
with regularity, the most recent example being Sapphire Night who was 16/1 in the Racing Post betting forecast, 6/1 on the opening shows, going off at 4/1 and winning.
The great thing about the blog is that I have a library of
examples which I will collate and update for you in the next
newsletter. It’s a system with legs most certainly.
Winners to Losers – Where’s the Value?
I have been updating www.whatreallywinsmoney.com with my daily findings regarding the Winners to losers lay system, and it seems to be suffering from the successful marketing campaign and sales.
3 horses this week have shown at 7.5 on Betfair when the
markets first opened, only to go off at 16, 14 and 14.
The Price/volume graph shows a steady rise throughout the
day at a 45 degree angle from left to right, indicating a huge
drift in the prices
Now, as a layer, you’d be happy laying at 7.5, as that price is representative of the horse’s actual price with the
bookmakers. One selection was 13.5 to back, 14.5 to lay and was 6/1 with the bookmakers!!
The lay price, therefore, is NOT representative of the horse’s true chances of winning/losing and are. I would suggest it’s a direct result of many people using the Winners to Losers lay system laying the same horse throughout the day.
So where’s the value then? If we are laying a horse who is 6/1 with the bookmakers, at 14, then surely we are losing out.
BUT I had a thought. What if we BACKED these selections?
Surely that’s the very definition of a value bet? Backing a horse at 14 on Betfair, when the bookmakers are pricing the horse up at only 6/1 represents excellent value.
Take a look at February’s results on the website
www.winnerstolosers.com and you’ll see recent lays which
won their races (thereby losing for the system) at prices as
high as 20/1 with the bookmakers (Gallantry).
Alas I do not have the Betfair Graph for this horse to hand, but if the general trend is that bookmaker’s prices are nearly doubling on Betfair because so many people are laying the same horse, then I would suggest that Gallantry was available to back at a price considerably higher than 20/1! It must be said here, though, that Winners to Losers does recommend a fixed liability staking, so you can control your losses BUT laying at these prices means that returns are forever smaller than they should be when your lay loses its race.
Winners to Losers is typical of heavily marketed laying
systems -prices just become ridiculous for the layer and
unrepresentative of what they should be, BUT for the backer, they become extremely good value, especially when the odd 20/1 shot comes in.
February saw 5 winners (they won their races hence ‘lost’ for Winners to Losers layers) at prices around the 7/1 and 8/1 mark with the bookmakers. We have good reason to suggest that these prices would be double on Betfair and so February would have produced an excellent profit if you had backed all of these VALUE bets rather than layed them.
Another method of profiting from these mass marketed lay
systems is to make your selection as early as possible and get your lay in, and just wait for the hordes to lay the same horse throughout the day.
Imagine laying a selection at 7.5 only to find you can back the horse near the off at 14 and have your very own risk free trade GUARANTEED (for as long as Winners to Losers punters stick with the system!)
These are alternatives for a lay system that certainly won’t be entering my betting portfolio (yet, may, I will concede, produce a profit at year end if people stick with it). Users of the system must be aware now that the odds they are getting are too high ALL the time, so the profits on the website are NOT achievable by the everyman (and woman!)
I like laying as and when an opportunity arises – maybe the
ground has turned heavy, or there’s a short priced favourite in a 20 runner maiden who has never run before (watch out
during the Irish Flat Season), or the betting market is extremely tight indicating competitive racing (so lay the
shortest priced).
For those who don’t like the eye watering prices of Winners to Losers, and prefer mechanical systems, I have been trialling
Paul Fowlies Dodgy Favourites
I have only had 3 selections so far, 2 have lost, one at 10/11
and the other 3.8 on Betfair with a winner at 5/6 .Far too early of course to come to any conclusions but the prices are certainly low enough to limit liabilities. I will be following
regularly.
Footy Blog Kaput!
The last 2 weeks have seen the work for my Football Blog
disappear in an online Bermuda Triangle, for what reason I
don’t know. I’ll try to get this fixed for the weekend football as I’m keen to see whether the overs and unders system still holds its own from a trading angle, and there’s no reason why it shouldn’t. So if you’re interested, take a peek at www.soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com Saturday
lunchtime.
As to the place only blog, well, it’s another 100% strike rate
this week at really short prices… but when it’s 100% you’re
guaranteed a profit regardless eh?
You’ll find on the blog my market movers using the 16/1
methodology an hour before racing begins, and there’s
certainly been some great winners, as I mentioned earlier, and it would be a good exercise to see how things would have panned out backing all selections (each way where
appropriate). As you can appreciate, when I put a price cap of backing only under 5/1 , I miss out on the Victory Gunners (11/1), Azjil (10/1) and a few others at around 6/1.
I’m off now to daydream how I’m going to spend all the
winnings from Martin Blakey’s Cheltenham Preview
selections.
Have a great weekend
Clive Keeling