Hi
What a week! After needing to reinstall windows XP, I promptly lost all docs, all software, all of my Take That MP3’s and all of my pictures of KellyBrook from my hard drive, meaning PANIC STATIONS! So, I must apologise to those of you awaiting email replies – I am usually quicker in replying but, like the Bionic Man, I had to rebuild my computer (could do with six million dollars mind you)
I will be spending this week, then, rewriting my results onto my reinstalled excel spreadsheets which, believe me, will be loads of fun!
ARC-TASTIC
What an interesting Arc de Triomphe betting market last week. The shrewdies and relatives of CarolVorderman’s amongst you would have been able to engineer a risk free bet on all horses by combining the bookmaker’s prices and the Pari-Mutuel’s inflated prices thanks to the Japanese nations’ wholesale gamble on Deep Impact.
This massive gamble meant that horses such as the eventual winner Rail Link went off at 20/1 and above on the Pari Mutuel but only 8/1 with UK bookmakers. If we chose the best prices from the French Tote and the UK bookmakers, we could have sat back with Pipe and Slippers and enjoyed the race no matter what!
FOOTIE SEQUENCING
A number of sequences have emerged in UK Football recently. Sheffield United have just won, ending their losing sequence. Sunderland recently ended their losing sequence under RoyKeane. Although there’s no premiership football this weekend, there are a number of premiership teams which are on prominent losing streaks, including West Ham, Charlton and Watford. Now I don’t believe that they will go the whole season without winning (old Dowie and Pardew have their prayer mats out as we speak) and, further, I don’t believe any of the teams will be priced odds on in any forthcoming matches.
Enter progressive staking (again). Now is an ideal time to start backing these teams to win their matches UNTIL they win using progressive staking. Prices should be above evens which will be ideal for progressive staking (see article on Cashmaster – or use Cashmaster for any of you that have it)
Another team is Scottish outfit Elgin, some 11 or 12 matches without a win. What chance this continuing for the next 5 matches? Another ideal candidate for progressive staking. I’m not sure just how bad they are as they haven’t faced our Sunday League team, but they can’t be so bad that they’ll go the whole season without winning, surely? Elgin are 9/2 for their home match tomorrow, nice big odds for progressive staking as we’re looking at a target profit per match.
So there’s 4 teams to keep an eye on. We’ve seen with ManchesterCity that a win will come soon.
INTERNATIONAL FOOTBALL
Now I know accumulators are mug punters bets, but on weekend’s like this with so many international mismatches, it’s not difficult to be tempted. So, for one day only (!) I’ll be backing Portugal, Brazil, Slovenia, Croatia, Germany, England, Czech, Austria, Lithuania which pays out just over evens. Cue goal fest from Andorra, Azerbaijan, San Marino the Faroe Islands, Kuwait against Brazil and Liechtenstein and the conversation I’ll be having with myself come Monday will be along the lines ‘
WHERE TO START?
A couple of readers have been overwhelmed with the information provided in What Really Wins Money and are at a loss as to where to begin. I will, this week, write up a little piece on what I would do to start the ball rolling. The key questions to ask are areas of interest ie horses, football etc, circumstances ie can you follow the live markets (a couple of nice 16/1 system winners this week if you could), strategy ie are you a backer or a layer or do you want to trade?
I will touch on each of these areas and provide something by next week.
INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS
I’ve managed to get reviews from a number of tipsters via email – no not the glossy brochure brigade promising you millions of pounds per week – or your money back! – but some legitimate hard workers willing to allow their services to be proofed. I hope from all of these, a few will really rise to the surface.
I am also getting replacements for lost systems thanks to my computer shenanigans, and the publishers of the ebooks are quite willing to send them which is good customer service.
MARIA’S LAYING
Was going well until I lost the spreadsheet, but I have kept a manual record of bets so will reassemble. As you’ve probably gathered, this has excited me greatly, and for good reason, as it has shown, IN THE REAL WORLD, that great profits can be made with a long-term view, and a plan to work.
JUMPS UPON US
We’re well and truly into the soft/heavy going small field long distance jumps season and I’m looking forward to it. Lost of short priced horses running over long distances who can be taken on with each way bets. I have done well with each way betting since I began following this route recently, latest winner on the blog was Luscivious at 16/1, a selection chosen by using my 2/4 3/5 method ie find a short priced favourite in a punter unfriendly race who we have no real confidence in, and back the 2nd and 4th OR 3rd and 5th
live market favourites each way against it.
This system works well in nabbing some big prices, and with each way betting, if our selections are placed, we at least get a large proportion (or even more) of our stake money back. Ideal races for this include maidens, and, increasingly now, 8+ field hurdles and chases where there are question marks over the main protagonists. See some real life past and present examples at http://clivekeeling.spaces.live.com and, if you’re so inclined, look at the types of races where these each way bets were chosen.
I’m off now to get me thermals on, it’s getting a little parky even in sunnyish (with intermittent showers) Guernsey. Have a great weekend, and please be patient with me in replying to your emails until my computer mayhem is brought to rest.
Clive