I have mentioned this little tactic in the past and it has been cleaning up recently so I thought I’d remind you and talk you through how to back 1/3 shots (or shorter) at odds of up to 6/1!

To recap, look out for “in running” matches on Betfair where teams are ultra short priced to win (preferably at home) and monitor these games “in running”. If the opposition score then you have an enhanced bet.

Here are some examples:

Chelsea v Stoke 17 January 2009

Chelsea are 1/3 to win at home. Stoke score first. What will happen to the Chelsea odds? They will rise given the fact they now need 2 goals to win.

You have two alternatives. Lay Stoke or back Chelsea at enhanced odds. (After all, you are getting odds far in advance of the original 1/3 offered for Chelsea in the pre in running betting market.)

For those of you with faith that a 1/3 shot should really be winning at home, then how about the odds of 6/1 in the 85th minute! Chelsea obliged although I suspect the prayer mat was worn out!

Real Madrid v Osasuna 18 January 2009

Real Madrid are playing at home and are 1/3 to beat Osasuna. Osasuna scored first. If you have faith that the 1/3 is reflective of Real Madrid’s 90 minute chances in the game, then you could have backed Real Madrid at a comparatively whopping 2.38 OR laid Osasuna at 2.48 (which I did). Final score – 3-1 to Real Madrid.

18 January 2009

Fenerbahce v Eskisehirspor

The home team are 1/3 to win.

The opposition get a man sent off after 26 minutes. Surely 1.24 for the home team to win under these new circumstances is a great value bet? This does NOT represent an enhanced odds bet strictly, BUT the odds for Fenerbahce to win with 11 men at home against 10 men is only slightly shorter than their pre game odds!

Final score Fenerbahce win 3-0

18 January 2009

Panathinaikos v Aris Pana are 1/3 to win. It’s 0-0 at half time. You can now back a 1/3 shot at 1/2 or shorter (1.57) Final score 4-0.

11 January 2009

Osasuna v Barcelona

Barcelona are 4/9 to win away from home. The 72nd minute sees Osasuna leading at 2 1. Keeping faith in Barcelona you could have laid Osasuna at just over evens or backed Barcelona at a price far greater than the 4/9 pre game odds. Final result, 3-2 to Barcelona!

Take advantage of perceived “must win” games

We have all read the recent headlines. Chelsea dare not lose away to Southend. Again, Southend took the lead! Chelsea’s 1.25 pre match odds now stood at 1.57 – what a value bet. We all know the final score. Chelsea won comfortably.

26 December 2008

Stoke v Man Utd

Again ultra short odds for Man Utd. Those who kept the faith that this was a MUST WIN for Man Utd could have greatly increased the pre match odds by backing Man Utd after half-time or as late as possible. An 83rd minute Tevez goal secured the win.

Bottom line

This is just a quick reminder article really in light of some exciting recent results. By taking no part, pre match, in certain games involving heavily odds on shots expected to win, you can readily create enhanced odds bets in reaction to unexpected goals (or no goals for a concerted period!) and really get some value. Watch out for these types of opportunities in the future.

Personally, I don’t normally “look” for these opportunities, I stumble across them when looking at different markets.

No, Addendum is not a new player at Arsenal, I just want to emphasise that, although trading is perceived as risk free, it is NOT.

So, as my close show biz pal Mr C from pop/rock combo “The Shamen” would say , it is “naughty, naughty, very naughty” of websites such as http://www.riskfreefootball.com/ to advertise football trading as risk free.

The only way to trade risk free is not to use any money. There is a distinction between betting/ trading risk free and CREATING a risk-free bet by trading to return outlay (that outlay may be liability or stake).

As you will probably realise now, www.riskfreefootball.com really is a website and eBook that you really must avoid. At £99.95 it represents absolutely no value for money.

The “proof” on the website is over a year old, and simply shows a standard green screen. We also see that these matches involved a Top 4 side against inferior opposition. There are any number of  tradable aspects to this game when we have a team such as Manchester United playing Southampton and Liverpool playing Preston. Two mismatched games, two strong favourites and a simple enough trade backing the red-hot shots and then laying after they have scored the first goal.

Not rocket science, and certainly not conclusive  proof of any system worthy of £99.95!

Readers of the most recent eletter will have seen the clues on their website… clues which can help us make our minds up when we’re deciding whether or not to purchase a system. Read this:

“You may be wondering how  much the methods costs. You could quite easily turn £100 into £25,000 in just eight weeks if you trade five games per week and make 15% per game, so it should be valued with a four figure sum, however the price we are asking for is just £149.95 £99.95! Only 100 copies are being sold to keep the method exclusive and there are only 58 47 remaining!”

Note the words “quite easily” before turning £100 into £25,000 in just two months. Surely if the author could do this, this should be put up as proof instead of the tired, worn out old green screens that anyone can selectively create (whilst ensuring they forget the red screens of previous efforts)!

I’ve said it before, ANYONE can get the old graphics from companies like www.ecoverexpert.com, put up a little sales page, and some alleged proof, along with a headline, and charge what they like.

Bottom line

In my opinion football trading manuals are NOT worth purchasing (new ones anyway) in 2009. If any come on to the market, then give them the heave ho. I am very wary, too, that the actual Betfair Screenshots may have been manipulated to deceive punters.

No guarantees here either and this looks like another quickly produced con!

As an aside, at first glance all seems fine, but look a little closer and we see the cracks in the website copy just as I showed you in my most recent eletter.

I reiterate (repetition is the mother of skill), the new you in 2009 will NOT be taken in by these scams  anymore – YOU WILL NOT part with any money until satisfied. You WILL note any discrepancies AND will always act with a sceptical eye.

To claim that anything to do with betting is risk Free is frankly a lie – it makes a good headline but does not ring true in the real world. You MUST risk money when trading.

If there is enough interest, perhaps you would like to see more real practical trading examples in the newsletter? Let me know. It’ll save you having to suffer these fools.