Next Season

As I write, ol’ Red Nose has returned the Premiership to Manchester United…  And, more importantly, my betting bank is in the Mighty Black and not the Mighty Reds!!  I think there are a few select systems and strategies that have proven to be most effective this season gone. If included in your betting arsenal they could prove to be equally as profitable in the 2009/2010 Football season, when, of course, Wolverhampton Wanderers will knock Man Utd off their lofty perch and assault the Champions League the season after. I know you’re a Wolves fan, Clive, but the glass seems to be more than half full for you (and said glass full of strong Russian Vodka! – the editor) So here’s what has worked from my perspective.

The Simplex Trading Plan

From www.simplextrading.co.uk, this system has worked again this year producing another profit.  I mention it here only because it has worked.  Alas, it will not form any basis for my football betting now or in the future.

The reason? Doubling up!

Even if starting with 10p stakes, one stake this season was as high as ?1,638.40.  The writers behind this system also tell us to end around 16th December. This season, I decided to end as near to 13th December 2008 as possible. And I’m glad I did, because if the result this system required had not materialised near the above date, then we would have been looking at a huge five figure sum stake on one team in particular.

The risk of anomalous results is far too great for me to include this in my portfolio, DESPITE the fact it has worked well for two years now.

Football cash builder www.footballcashbuilder.com

Still being touted by affiliates who have never tried it at all, this system is simply unworkable.  So why have I included it here?

Simple. It works as a great lay system.  BUT you don’t have to buy it. My lay system is my own invention and totally unique so I can share it with you.

I have mentioned it before, that accumulator bets can be the bain of the punter because almost inevitably one bet in that accumulator will let you down!

Here are the simple steps:

1) Go to www.betfair.com – click on sports – click on multiples. Multiples with www.betfair.com are the equivalent of traditional accumulators with the bookmakers apart from the fact that we can include LAY bets in our accumulators rather than back bets (and when you consider that the traditional layers (bookmakers) love these bets, this can tell you that football accumulators are not worthwhile long-term prospects – unless you hit a jackpot of course.

2) Click on the football coupon and make a note of all home teams priced 1.50 (or as near as possible to that price) and 1.34 (again as near as possible to it.

3) Select two home teams at 1.5 and one home team at 1.34 in a treble. Click on the “Back” bet for these teams 4) Instead of backing that treble, LAY the multiple bet. If any of these three teams loses or draws their matches, YOU WIN!

I came to this conclusion after the football cashbuilder, as a backing vehicle, kept disappointing (and guess what, they’re still flogging this system!).  Here is how the bet will look at Betfair Multiples (see bottom of page).

Note I have chosen to BACK the three teams BUT decided to LAY that treble. If all three teams win, I LOSE! If one team falters, I WIN!

Laying the draw line

Oh no, not that old chestnut, I hear you groan.  This method should not be dismissed as long as we maintain a couple of rules:

1) Look to lay only when the price to lay the draw is 4 or lower.

2) Go through all qualifying games and lay the draw only in a limited number of games where goals are expected, i.e. CHOSE specific games and don’t lay ALL games. Chose suitable games -those YOU think will have goals – because as you read last month, GOALS MEAN PRICE FLUCTUATION!

It all goes back to personal choice, I suppose, in the games that you select in ensuring whether you make this method work. It may have been around for ages but should not readily be dismissed. Please look at the football trading article for a glimpse of lay the draw in action. Also, do not neglect trading in other markets!

The majority of manuals released this season have been trading based, and I am committed to spilling the beans to you here over the coming months.

www.oversandundersbetting.com

Yes, a collector’s item, folks. A Brookes book that actually makes sense! Why? Simply because it is not written by the Shakespeare of the noughties.  The methodology for sniffing out (in particular) games with over 2.5 goals has proven to be consistent and, when married with trading – as suggested in a recent article – has proven to be an effective profit maker.

1 Trabzonspor v Konyaspor (Backing Trabzonspor @ 1.51)

2 B Munich v Hannover (Backing B Munich @ 1.39)

3 Marseille v Valenciennes (Backing Marseille @ 1.65)

Trebles

Selections        Odds*   Stake               Potential liability

1,2 and 3           3.48       100.00            248.00

*Odds shown are indicative and may vary.

Total backer’s stake: 100.00

Your total potential liability: 248.00

This is a methodology I put to use, but there is no need to really purchase the eBook to be honest. Just ask yourself what you would expect to see if looking for games with goals.

Simplicity is genius as Einstein said. Yes, you’d be looking for stats and trends which point at goals for BOTH the home sides and away sides.  REMEMBER, the key to success with this strategy (which is not covered in the eBook) is that element of trading.

This is something I will personally cover as part of my articles on football trading.

Other football services

www.football-bets.co.uk

Well, I fail to see how this service has made a profit this season. Some of the bets have been, it seems to me, too clever rather than going for value bets when chances are obvious.

It has simply not delivered all season long

www.footballmaestrosystem.com

A football tipping service from you-know-who which has failed to impress me, simply because the bets he puts forward are very, very obvious and generally odds on shots (and very short odds on shots to boot).?100 to ?10,000 this season, shouts the blurb, but I’m afraid this has not been delivered thanks largely to the odds on bets and the small percentage of the betting bank attributed to these bets (whose returns, of course, are negligible if we started with said ?100 betting bank and continued).

Good ideas regarding dutching the correct score in some matches (as we get good odds if these come in) but by and large these bets have not been put up as official recommendations.

Not something I would personally have been happy to pay for, and has not met the initial profit promises.

www.soccerbetting.info

You may like to take advantage of this free tipping service. They have had a long winning run of late and the price is right!

I use these free services as additional information to strengthen my decision making.

http://www.footballbettingresults.co.uk

An excellent live stats site run by Oxon Press and a link into their Sports statistician service which retains quality this season.

Statistics are the key here – corners – yellow and red cards – that sort of thing.

Also incorporates www.footballbettingdata.co.uk which is the online version of the original Sports Statistician newsletter.


Bottom line

I have not included any permutations here as my betting is largely online using the betting exchanges.  If you would like to know about permutations and football, drop me a line – I would be happy to point you in the right direction as there are specialist programs to help you calculate permutations.  All in all though, the above services have proven to be effective this season, and I will be adding more as and when I come across them.

The football tipping (paid for) services have generally performed below expectations this term and do not seem worthy of investment.  Starting next season, though, with a focus on over 2.5 goals trading, and laying the draw, as well as some of the other ideas within this particular newsletter, will serve you well season long.