Hi,

Yes, folks, another fun packed week where my old war horse main PC has decided to take a little holiday from me, taking with it all of my betting systems that I’m SUPPOSED to be testing for you!

You see, I don’t have an IT department… well I do, and it’s me.

My way of fixing a computer hitch normally consists of slapping the PC Tower and swearing , switching it on and off until it hopefully wakes up again, then storming off cursing like a sailor and deciding to start up the laptop.

And so here I am. On the laptop!

I have a number of new systems with me at the moment, hence the frustration with the PC.

The Protege System

The Protege System from Tony Gibson is waiting to be started. I have, of course read it, and its focus is a unique one. The killer combo for this system are the trainer and the OWNER!

Aha! Yes, a very interesting way of deciphering when specific trainers place horses for specific owners and the fact that these horses tend to do rather well.

Tony Gibson is an old hand at betting systems and his efforts are usually well thought out and presented and all I can do at present is save up the Racing Posts and give the main PC a few more kicks (or hit it with a branch like Basil Fawlty did with the car (that did the trick though!) until I can get my hands on the system again.

It seems to have been synchronicity this week that a number of themes based around market movers have all surfaced at the same time. The most interesting one I have saved for the newsletter but I must recount again the efforts of reader Barry (who kindly allowed me to tell you the bare bones of his place only betting system using the market mover principle in the next newsletter).

Well, he’s made 20 point profit in the last few months betting in the place only market. Early days but sound principles behind his system and something for you to follow in the next edition. It’s a mixture of the 16/1 system and the livebettingstrategy I mentioned last week, but something Barry came up with himself.

The “Pointer” System

Breon Rawlings has released the “Pointer” System, dedicated, of course, to the Pointer Sisters, those hearty National Hunt supporters (NOT!)

No, this is another system based on trying to spot when a horse is fancied by ONE PARTICULAR BOOKMAKER, the theory being that they, traditionally, have the best contacts and the best knowledge base regarding horses most likely to run well on any given day.

A nice simple system which, again, is being kept prisoner by my main PC but one I will be monitoring for you.

www.bettertipster.co.uk are currently proofing to me. Again the basis here is on a degree of “insider info” and they do have a tendency to produce some good results, although I did laugh at a recent email regarding Robert Thornton’s Bensalem where they said their contact had spoken to Choc Thornton on the course and he said the horse would not be beaten! Well, at 1/2 you would hope not! My Gran could have picked that one!

Still, joking aside, a service with distinct promise.

Then there was an eletter from Nick Pullen at Horse Racing Focus who did a bit of digging which may explain why some of my market movers are erroneous. It seems that certain bookmakers will automatically shorten a horse when there’s money down from a particular person or group! Not necessarily a stable gamble, but someone with a good track record, backing a specific horse for a specific trainer in a specific race.

Interesting stuff.

The eletter is actually worth following, well, cos it’s FREE!

You can sign up here

There is most certainly money to be made with this market mover principle, and of course there’s also money to be made with the old place only betting.

Readers of the blog will have noted another successful week, and the injection, now of football betting into the ONE BET A DAY philosophy.

Football matches don’t involve jockeys whose mistakes can lead to horses being unplaced, don’t involve fallers or being pulled up, and whose short odds, when quoted, more accurately reflect chances of success.

There have been a couple of football games this week involving teams quoted at 1/10 away from home. It doesn’t take a genius to work out who’s more likely to win this match.

Put it this way, if a team quoted 1/10 does not win by at least 2 or 3 goals, then that is a surprise.

My argument regarding one a day betting is that I would rather back a football team at 1.12 rather than a horse to place at 1.12. And if you’re thinking “he’s tipping /10 shots – fecking genius this lad!) well a betting bank of £2600+ to £100 level stakes since November should shut you up!

On a footballing theme, I have been working on a trading system revolved around the over 1.5 goals market. The idea is to look for an ultra short priced team, ideally at home, and then go to www.soccerstats.com and look for the following:

Good recent goal scoring record (by recent I mean last 6 games) for the home team and away team (the away team should also have a propensity to let in a few goals as well)

Good head to head stats for the home team when they have previously met the away team. Ideally I like to see a home team who has consistently won comfortably against the away team.

Good overall record at home against teams who are placed around the away team in the table. What do I mean? Well, I want to see the home team having beaten or drawn in games with goals, against teams in or around the place where the away team reside. e.g. a mid table side – I’d want to see he home side having played well against teams 2 places above and below the away side.

This simple checklist seems to do the trick.I then make sure the game is in running. I back over 1.5 goals ( with an optional 0-0 insurance bet) and wait for the first goal. If the first goal scored is in the first half, usually we can trade out for a green screen on both over and under 1.5 goals and simply leave the match.

The great thing about this, of course, is that we have both teams working for us. If the away side score first against long odds on home sides, the market expects a quick equaliser.

This particular system has been superb of late. The leagues to focus on? Holland / Spain / Gemany pretty much as they traditionally have high scoring matches.

The killer score line in all of this? 1-0 and a late goal.

This is the only problem score line I can foresee. And I’m wracking my brains trying to find a way to cover this eventuality.

Still, in trials, I am well in profit. the system does require a decent betting bank to be used as leverage, BUT as long as you do your research, the goal you crave should arrive. Make it simple eh! Barcelona, Real Madrid, the 2 at the head of the SPL, all traditional high goal scorers when priced at 1/4 or lower.

Something to think about for sure.

So the one-a-days march on gloriously for another week. It’s a simple day-by-day thing this. Just get your one bet for the day, wait for it to place, and then move on to tomorrow (repeat ad infinitum with hopefully a 96% strike rate) and it’s happy days. Readers are enjoying the blog and this new way of betting and making money. Those last 3 words are the key of course. The line in the graph tends to move upwards steadily, and as you’ll read in the next newsletter, there are a number of staking plans which can really boost profits from these short priced selections.

But the lynchpin is ONE A DAY. That’s the key to the success of the whole thing. ONE BET A DAY – no more than that!

I’m afraid that until I have kicked my main PC into submission and it sparks into light, I cannot recount more of what I would like!

I’m off now to hit said PC with a branch waving my fist at it in a Basil Fawlty stylee. If that works, I’ll open a PC repair shop and charge hundreds for curing other PCs the Fawlty Towers way!

Have a great weekend,

Regards,

Clive Keeling