The Patriarch Reveals

I’m going to start the new year with a bang – a 100-1 plan that is mainly a DIY effort, but with some possible assistance.

But first, a question regarding your own ability to select winners. Would you be fairly confident about being able to pick two winners at around a 6-4 price?  And how about finding the winner if you were backing two in the race, both about the 3-1 mark?  If that doesn’t sound too impossible then we are in business for my 100-1 idea. We’ve talked here before about the magic of compounding, but of course there is the similar quality about accumulating. I find it quite surprising, without doing the calculations, that four winners at 6-4, 6-4, 3-1 and 3-1 (by no means huge prices), give an accumulated dividend of exactly 99-1, near enough to our 100 target.

I’ll return later with some advice on selecting the horses, but if you wish to select your own that’s fine.  Here I’ll just show how I would write out the bet.  The selections can be in any order but I’ll give an example with the single horses coming first. First race – horse A at 6-4 (approx). Second race – horse B at 6-4 (approx). Third race – horses C and D at 3-1 (approx). Fourth race – horses E and F at 3-1 (approx). Perm 1 x 1 x 2 x 2 = 4 one point win accumulators. The point can be any stake you wish, but obviously even at a £1 stake you are getting a return of around £100, depending on the accuracy of the betting forecast. So even with a success rate of only 1 in 10, 15 or 20 you are still making a good profit.

Here’s another angle to the idea. Your four races don’t all have to take place on the same day. You can spread them over different days’ racing whenever a suitable race appears. In this case the staking is a little different. We’ll assume your four races are taking place on four different days, starting with a single selection at 6-4. This time you stake your four points on it. If it wins you put the total winnings of 10 points on the second 6-4 selection.

It wins too and your return now is 25 points. For your third race with two selections at 3-1 you split the 25 points, putting half on each. One of them wins so we now have 50 points. Again we split our returns putting 25 points on each of the final 3-1 selections. One of them wins so we now have our return of 100 points.  If only it were always as simple and straightforward as that, but at least it demonstrates how to operate the staking over different days. My suggested prices too are just a guide. You don’t have to stick exactly to 6-4 and 3-1 but I would try not to stray too far from these prices.

How to make your selections using price gapping

Now, for anyone who wishes to heed it, some advice on making your selections. First, the single selections at 6-4 (approx). Here is my take on Clive’s ‘price gapper’ idea.

1.  Use The Racing Post betting forecast.

2.  Look at non-handicap races with eight runners or less. Don’t use amateur or selling races.

3.  Favourite must be 11-8, 6-4 or 13-8.

4.  That favourite becomes a selection only if the next horse in the betting is forecast at 7-2 or bigger.

For the two horses per race we have slightly different rules.

1.  Use The Racing Post betting forecast.

2.  Look at all races with 10 runners or less.

3.  Favourite must be 5-2 or bigger.

4.  Our two selections must be 11-4, 3-1, 10-3 or 7-2.

Both must come from these prices.

5.  These become selections only if the next in the betting is forecast at 5-1 or bigger.  All we want now is a few ton scores.  Editor’s Note: Plenty to chew over there, and from my perspective, there is no need to limit yourself to horse racing. Perhaps you’ve found a 6/4 equivalent price in the over/under 2.5 goals market, the corners market perhaps, even the match odds market in the Football markets.

Perhaps you can create a 6/4 equivalent return in the horse racing place-only market on Betfair?  Think laterally here. I am sure that you can construct these types of accumulators the Patriarch mentions if you broaden your net and look at less conventional markets as well as traditional horse racing.

And here’s a National Hunt system just in time for the return of the jumps

There will be no 100-1 prices with this old N.H.  system, but I reckon it will provide quite a few winners. It starts its operations in November so we’ve missed a month or two, but as it carries on until the end of May we still have time to collect -and then there’s always next year. It’s called Winter And Spring, comes in three sections and suggests either The Racing Post or Sporting Life for their betting forecasts. I would have to agree. And as I think I’ve mentioned before, although the Sporting Life is no longer with us, their betting forecast is still available on the internet at www.sportinglife.com.  Personally, I’d go for The Racing Post as it is more readily available.

Part One: Operate from the end of the Flat Season in November until the end of May.

1.  Type of race: all Handicap Chases.

2.  Any course and distance winner with the following form figures which must both come from the current season. 01, 02, 03, 04 and 11.

3.  If there is more than one qualifier in a race, then select the one at the shortest price in the betting forecast.

Part Two: Operate from the end of the Flat Season in November until the end of May.

1.  Type of race: Handicap Hurdles and Handicap Chases with 14 or less runners.

2.  Any horse which has won its last two races in the current season.

3.  Must be first or second in the betting forecast.

4.  No bet if forecast at odds-on.

Part Three: Operate from the end of the Flat Season in November until the end of May.

1.  Type of race: all non-handicap races.

2.  A selection is any horse which was a beaten favourite last time out and is now the forecast favourite for this race.

3.  Do not bet on any horse that qualifies if it is having its first run of the current season.  I’ve had a quick look at some recent results (the bad weather has put paid to most racing as I write), but it has produced some winners. Today, the 30th of December, as I write this, there was only one selection for the day from Part Three. That was Owen Glendower in the 3.55 at Taunton for anybody wishing to check. It was a winner, albeit at a shortish price.