I’ve got something very exciting for you at the end of this email, but first…
You can tell we’re coming to the end of the football season by a quick glance at your local fixed odds coupon:
BARCELONA is 8/11 at home to Osasuna
INTER are 5/4 away to Calgliari
CHELSEA is 10/11 away to Sunderland
MAN UTD is 11/8 away to Hull
You’d have thought the bookies had had a bang on the head. But there’s a simple reason to these crazy prices – INCENTIVE TO WIN!
I am sure that Barcelona, having wrapped up La Liga, will have their minds on a slightly more important football game next week; ditto Man Utd. Inter Milan have wrapped up the league and are a massive 5/4 when you compare their usual prices. Chelsea, reinvigorated under Guus Hiddink, is a massive 10/11 against struggling Sunderland!
On any other day than the last day of the season would these prices be out of place, but I suppose you can explain them.
For instance I can exclusively reveal the Man Utd team to play Hull (with my tongue firmly in my cheek)
GOAL – Mrs. Wiggins (she works in the café at Old Trafford)
DEFENDERS – Mrs. Ferguson (Alex’s wife – in place of Rio as she makes a killer Bakewell Tart); Angus Dayton; Zoe Ball; Mick Hucknall (although Sir Alex might get in trouble for picking a Man Utd fan from Manchester).
MIDFIELD – Bert the kit man; Roger (who provides the half time oranges); Paul Nicholls (trainer of Alex Ferguson’s horse); Groundskeeper Terry (brother of Groundskeeper Willy but Willy was asking too much in appearance fee).
UPFRONT – Carlos Tevez (‘s Mum) and Ronaldo McDonaldo (the burger giant’s South American mascot).
Hence the 8/11 against a team in freefall. Of course the opponents NEED goals; they need a win but will they get what they need? After all a 2nd string Man Utd side is still superb and will Chelsea and Barcelona suddenly stop doing what they do so well despite wholesale changes for the latter side?
Which other day of the season could you get 17.62 (16/1) for Man Utd, Chelsea, Barcelona and Inter Milan against opposition they usually would comfortably beat. It’s a mug punter bet of course but a sneaky tenner is worthy of an investment
It’ll certainly give me an incentive to shout on these 4 teams! I’m getting on for sure -the odds are huge and my stake will be negligible because of the unique circumstances we find ourselves in.
While waiting in anticipation for “Super Sunday”, I have plenty to read and trial believes me.
It’s all come at once this week!
www.thebettingblueprint.com is the latest release from Shakespeare Brookes has appeared and I have had a read through. I must applaud them again on such enticing marketing – they really are adept at it, but I suppose having released hundreds of ebooks over the last few years using the same website templates and affiliate marketing, they have this aspect nailed.
Alas, the final product has never seemed to mirror the over blown claims on the websites.
Is this different?
I have read the manual twice now and admittedly I’m yet to put it into action. When I do it will most definitely be paper trading knowing the past reputation of this lot!
The manual is split into 2 sections
The first section is a trading system.
The second section is a handicap specific laying system. If you look at the Betfair screenshots you will notice that the majority of winnings have come from handicap races, which leads me automatically to focus on this latter section as the potentially profitable section.
As to the trading chapter, well it is statistic specific – we trade on favourites who have a statistically better than average chance of winning.
I was all too quick to dismiss another trading manual (after all if you want to learn about trading simply Google “Betfair horse racing trading tutorial” or words to that effect and you will get all you need to know because quite simply, trading manuals are OLD news (a bit like the Weight of Money they allude to in the manual)).
Still they do put forward a cogent argument for using statistics to help narrow the field to those races where our favourite is expected to be backed.
It remains to be seen how profitable said system will be. I must admit, trading is not top of my list for making money, simply because relatively risk free betting such as this means relatively small profits. It’s a simple correlation…
You want to make more money – you gotta take bigger risks – simple as that!
I would like to try this out and report back to you.
For so called trading professionals though, I am gobsmacked that there is zero mention of trading software which will make the job far easier for you. Fairbot I have spoken about previously and is a wonderful tool for traders. This software will enhance trading profits hugely.
The handicap lay system is interesting too, and as alluded to, is where the screenshots on the website have got their profits from in large part. I have my week’s Racing Post’s to take this system through qualifying races and see how it performs.
As ever with Brookes’ books, don’t purchase until I give you the lowdown, as so many of the other Brookes products have fallen short.
Some degree of promise I hope!
www.thebetdoctor.co.uk/the-winners-circle/ – this is the 2nd manual I’ve picked up this week and is greyhound specific.
There is a scarcity of real greyhound systems out there, and the usual ones focus on perming, tricasts, forecasts and so forth. I did relate to you within WRWM my greyhound strategy which was to back 3 outsiders in each race given the fact that
1) greyhound racing can be a lottery and
2) on BETFAIR it’s a backer’s market given the lack of liquidity in the markets, meaning at times you can get a 5/1 greyhound at 10/1 or higher!
With this strategy I use simple £2 stakes on the 3 bookmaker outsiders in each race. When the shocks occur, you profit well. Take a look at www.thedogs.co.uk and you’ll see how many times favourites lose and how many times perceived outsiders win!
Anyway back to The Bet Doctor…
This is a comprehensive package, surprisingly so to be honest. Like Brooks’ latest, it also looks to statistics to help us make our back and lay decisions.
There are 6 accompanying excel spreadsheets which focus on one specific area of information, from favourite strike rate for the day, track stats for greyhound tracks, trap form analyser and trap group form analyser. We also get a back and lay calculator which are not really needed if you use Fairbot as the software will do it all for you.
So, this strategy looks to take a holistic and statistical look at greyhound racing and leaves no stone unturned.
Initial thoughts? Is this over analysis really needed – after all it’s only greyhound racing and frankly, in these layman’s eyes, it’s a lottery. I look forward to being converted! Yet again The Racing Post mountain will come to my aid and I will take it through its paces, although have the feel that perhaps some elements need live market monitoring.
I won’t be able to follow all greyhound tracks BUT if it proves profitable then I WILL be able to follow all greyhound tracks. So expect some feedback soon. Those who love the dogs – get in touch. I would like a more experienced eye and someone with a passion for the dogs to help me test this system.
I will also do some further investigation into www.final-furlong.co.uk although there have been mixed messages regarding the large volume of daily bets with this company who operate a no money down service. As I hinted at with the last newsletter, I really don’t want to be giving away my personal details so will contact the vendor and see if he is willing to give me a decent trial “AS IF” I were a customer.
Still no news on the imminent release of The Virtual Racing System I mentioned last month from http://www.system-preview.com/ – they’re leaving me on virtual tenterhooks – virtually. I am definitely on the list to receive a copy so will inform you of any news although my instincts tell me these virtual races are not that clear cut!
I would like some testers for a new handicap ratings service I am trialing. The trial will begin on 1st June 2009 and I must admit I am excited with what I have seen thus far. I have tried to find something which will allow you to bet without recourse to the live market as I realize this can be impractical for the majority of people. So send me your email address with HANDICAP RATINGS TRIAL in the subject box and I’ll be in touch by the 1st June with details about this trial which is due to last at least a month.
A 100% week of sorts, if those of you following the blog went with my “unofficial” bet on Akbal on Wednesday instead of Coq Hardi who became a faller. It was a matter of time before I would succumb to a faller (the last being the Horse of the year Kauto Star so even the best can fall!) but a 19 day winning run ensured level stakes backers a profit even if the Coq Hardi fall is accounted for. This came on the back of a 49-day winning sequence before the fateful Frank Spencer stopped that run!
I operate this ONE A DAY in 2 ways. One account I always leave £100 in and use that as my level stake, banking all profits on the day.
The other account I use for compounding and on that fateful Wednesday used Akbal thankfully as the horse’s odds were big enough to ensure stakes are kept to a minimum.
Both are making money, and that’s the key. They’re not my sole sources of income but “background” investment vehicles that tick along nicely! Something to think about with ONE A DAY specifically give we can establish long winning runs because we focus on ONE SINGLE SOLID(ISH) BET PER DAY where it would be a shock (i.e. Coq Hardi / Kauto Star falling) if the bet didn’t pay out.
Well the live market really is the key for this exercise. You can really nail big prices with live market systems and the live betting strategy which I shared with you as a free ebook offered a great insight into this form of betting. I would urge you to re read it and experiment with it, and see if you can spot some other patterns just using the live betting market.
But I’ve left the very best until last… yes, this really does crack the bookies code!
If you want someone else to do the work for you, then, quite coincidentally, this new system has come on the market and has got me very excited! It’s called “Smoke and Mirrors” and was released just a couple of days ago.
It is a superb package and I think it quite simply cracks the code in seeing horses that bookmakers fancy.
It’s a lot easier than the 16/1 system but focuses purely on the live betting market. It’s one of the finest packages I’ve come across and I was extremely excited by it, so much so, I’m wading in today with a separate betting bank (don’t tell the boss man, cos if this takes off, then so will I!) So check it out and you will be amazed at the big priced winners this system finds.
If you’ve used the live betting strategy then you’ll have no problems with the Smoke and Mirrors. It really can be a way, like the 16/1 system, for reading the bookies minds!
NEWS JUST IN! A Great start to Smoke and Mirrors today – 2 races – neck 2nd at 20/1 and 1st at 16/1! Highly recommended!
I’m off now for lunch with Dr Stephen Hawking to discuss expanding time, because I need to find more hours in the day!
Have a great weekend.