Remember my idea on each way jumps betting I had last week?
Well it started superbly with a 14/1 winner!
To re-cap, I look for 8 runner jumps races (and that includes national hunt flat races). I look to back the 3rd and 5th live market favourites each way.
Why the 3rd and 5th? Well the 3rd favourite because he is just outside the market leaders (the 1st and 2nd in the betting) so we can assume that he is the horse who is most likely to pounce should either of the front 2 horses run under par.
Why the 5th favourite? Well, the 5th favourite is positioned in the betting just before the main outsiders in an 8-runner field. The hope here is that this horse will be competitive at least for a place (and in an 8 runner field, bookmakers will pay out on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd placed at the end of the race if you are betting each way).
I then back selections each way precisely because half of an each way bet is allocated on the horse winning the race and the other half is allocated on a horse placing.
Let’s look at a real example from Monday 19th October 2009 . . .
The race was the 520 Plumpton and here is what the odds would have looked like in the live betting market:
Sure fire 11/10 favourite
River Beauty 6/4
Lord Landen 8/1
Romantic Lead 10/1
Pro Pell 14/1
Mrs Onc 33/1
Bell Hill Lad 50/1
Jordans Day 66/1
8 runners and 2 strong market leaders. Lord Landen is highlighted as the 3rd favourite, and Pro Pell is highlighted as the 5th favourite.
1st Pro Pell 14/1
2nd Lord Landen 8/1
3rd River Beauty 6/4
You see that the 2 market leaders did not run as their odds suggested and the 3rd and 5th favourites luckily took advantage and landed a 1st and 2nd.
There has only been one other race this week, which produced a 2nd at 7/1 and an unplaced horse.
The key to success with this strategy in 8 runner races could be in the fact that jumps races, and national hunt races, allow for random events to occur, for market leaders to jump badly, make mistakes, and this is what we are cashing in on.
And this got me thinking . . .
What if we targeted all of the races with 8 runners in them, which we would normally run away from? You know the blacklist – here’s some examples from the top of my head – claimers, 2 year old nurseries – maidens – maiden hurdles – handicaps (especially over sprint distances (5 furlongs, 6 furlongs, 7 furlongs)) and middle distance handicaps (1 mile 2 furlongs to 2 miles) – sellers – class 6 and lower races.
Yes, a bad bunch of races for sure, where if you find the winner, it normally hints that you are having an affair with Mystic Meg.
This is something for me to track and follow. How will the 3rd and 5th live market favourites run in races where the 2 market leaders generally find it difficult to win in?
I hope to report back some good news. As long as we get the occasional 14/1 winner like Pro Pell, and as long as at least one of the horses places in the 1st 3 (the bookmakers will return our stakes at least if the horse is 2nd or 3rd) then I think there will be enough underperforming favourites in these bad unreliable betting mediums to allow us to make a profit without any form analysis whatsoever (BLISS!!)
REVEALED: the amazing horseracing system made over 50 points profit at Cheltenham and 80 points at Aintree.
That’s over £2,600 profit to £20 stakes in 7 days!
Discover the special ‘Smoke & Mirrors’ code that can pinpoint winners from 9/2 right up to 33/1.
Enhanced betting update
Well, it has been a quiet week on the enhanced bets front, what with all of the short-priced favourites in the football all consenting to score the first goal! Nevertheless there have been a few enhanced bets on offer.
On Saturday, St Johnstone scored first against Rangers, and Rangers went on to win the match.
Inter Milan were playing at home in the Champions League to Dinamo Kiev. They went 1-0 down, then equalised, went 2-1 down, then equalised. Why was Inter Milan on my shortlist for enhanced betting? Simple – Jose Mourinho’s imperious home record, stretching back to his Chelsea a nd Porto days. Inter were simply NOT going to lose.
Porto went 1-0 down to Apoel (Porto were 1/5 on shots to win this match) – yes Porto equalised and eventually went on to win the match
Barcelona this week went a goal down to Rubin Kazan at home. They eventually equalised. I backed Barcelona (1.13 before the game even kicked off) at 1.61 and sold my bet back at 1.28 when they equalised. Barcelona eventually went on to lose this game, much to my chagrin as they were one of my one a day bet selections, and this was made worse by the sight of Barcelona hitting the woodwork twice in the 2nd half.
Oh Ye Cruel Betting Gods!
Yesterday, Valencia went a goal down to Slavia Prague and was available to back at 2.9. Valencia equalised and their price reduced to 2.00 allowing a nice profitable trade.
As an aside Valencia ended up drawing this game 1-1: this reinforces why I always recommend you trade out of your bets (or sell your bet back as I refer to it in this month’s newsletter) at the earliest available opportunity.
Please do re-read my enhanced bets article in September’s WRWM because a 100% record this week pretty much speaks for itself.
Here’s a quick recap:
1) Make a shortlist of all ultra short priced football teams playing, ideally, at home
2) Then chose matches where you think it would be a real shock if the opposition got anything out of the game
3) Bring up www.futbol24.com, select your chosen matches and wait for the ping
4) Spend money on Guinness (like last week this is optional!)
How to get out when a bet goes wrong
The Barcelona game was a strange one. Just about everyone in the betting world, me included, fancied Barcelona to win comfortably. But they didn’t.
I backed Barcelona pre-match at 1.12 (yes short odds but part of my betting strategy so I am not squeamish about backing at such odds).
They went 1-0 down. This is looking like a bet from Hell!
And yet despite Barcelona losing the match, I actually came out of the game a winner!
How on earth did this happen, you are asking yourselves? Well, I backed Barcelona again at bigger odds once they went 1-0 down. As soon as they equalised, the price reduced enough for me to “sell” my bet back at much lower odds than I had backed at, and ensure my original stake and my enhanced bet stakes were returned to me.
Let me take you through the bet:
1.12 – I back Barcelona
1.61 – I back Barcelona again as they are a goal down
I lay Barcelona at 1.28 for £200
I lay Barcelona at odds of 1.32 for £236.67
I make a profit of £15.94
So have I stumbled upon a potential way for you to extricate yourself out of a short priced bet that is not quite going your way?
Of course this relies on the utmost faith in the team you have backed equalising! I had such faith in this instance. Still it is worth knowing.
And before I leave you . . .
Well, I was going to start another rant regarding the recently released eBooks that have found their way into my inbox, but I hope by now that you can read the websites, have a laugh at the claims, and move on.
One such release provides this promise
“Produces A High Six Figure Profit With No Effort At All”
Now that’s what I’m talking about! No effort at all. BUT it took me a little effort to actually read it, type in the website address, turn on my computer etc!
The testimonials come from 2 affiliate marketers, who, of course, remain completely unbiased and unswayed by the nice 50% referral payouts on this particular product.
I won’t waste your time or mine on this tripe, suffice to say engage your brain when you come across similar claims.
Have a great weekend