Hi,

It was great to see the Irish Combos I talked about in the last newsletter come good this week.

Saturday and Sunday saw a 12/1 winner for Pat Smullen, and Frozen Fire, the standout winner in the Irish Derby at the Curragh at 16/1. There was also a winner a couple of days ago at 10/1 SP.

Now this horse was available on Betfair at 19 (18/1) – this is a huge difference and is why, if you do get involved in the less popular (and hence less liquid) Irish Horse racing market, you must use Betfair.

Why?

Well, a lack of general knowledge amongst UK punters will see inflated odds on perceived outsiders. The lack of liquidity relative to UK Horse racing will see inflated odds as market forces are not as prevalent as they are in the UK Racing.

Can you imagine over a season how this nearly doubling in odds can help your profit/loss?!

Imagine if you will what price Hindu Kush ( another Aiden O’Brien runner) had been on Betfair when he won at 25/1 SP? Nearly 40/1!

Another jockey / trainer combination which has proved a revelation over here in Ireland has been Wayne Lordan and David Wachman, with particular focus on the jockey alone. He is still young and will merit my consideration next season for inclusion in my Irish Combos I think. He’s been going past the post more times than a Luca Toni effort on goal!

HOW THIS ODDS COMPILER COULD HAND YOU A 33/1 WINNER!

If you missed my email about ‘Mr X’, here’s your chance to catch up

He could regularly hand you bets at odds of 5/1 when it should be Evens… 10/1 when it should be 3/1… or even 33/1 when it should be 7/1…

Probably the greatest source of ante-post betting is ‘Mr X’s service ‘The Insider’.

(No, that’s not his real name. And don’t worry, it’s not a alias for out friend Steven eBrookes!)

I’ve been a huge fan of this service for many years and I can thoroughly recommend you take a look. Just click here:

http://www.shopatoxonpress.com/INS68CAN/

BREAKING NEWS: ALL IS WELL WITH MASTER BROOKES!

Yes after my heart felt plea in last week’s eletter it would seem that Master Brookes is well and is doing what he does best – writing ebooks! The exchange code theory is his latest effort (at least I think it is the same Brookes – it’s all so confusing). Alas, I will not be availing myself of this literary masterpiece ( I’m washing my hair) but anyone who has read it, please get in touch with me and give me your thoughts that I can pass them on.

Previous efforts regarding Betfair Games from the Shakespeare of Sports Betting Manuals have NOT provided the advertised profits so why should I suddenly think that things will improve in the future?

At least he’s well – that’s all that matters. My get well card must have really boosted him.

JUMPERS FOR GOALPOSTS – ENDURING IMAGE ISN’T IT?!

As my close Showbiz pal Ron Manager would say! Yes the football season will be upon us sooner than we think, and now is an opportune time to avail yourself of some strategies you will use in this forthcoming season. Pointers include learning any patterns from last season (Chelsea 0-0 halftime 1-0 fulltime! – Celtic late goal scorers – new arrivals in the premiership to be whipping boys ( or at least ONE team) , enhanced bets, trading and many more options.

I will make a concerted effort this coming season to capture my trades in a format that makes them shareable and viewable to you. There are a number of systems which I can do a season wide test on. Simplex actually DID work last season – what chance this season – we shall wait and see!

Noticeable patterns this week from a horse racing perspective? Place only betting can afford us a good opportunity to profit as we only have to chose a horse to place only, and one area of focus for the backer could be in maiden races where a favourite has been placed consistently in its last 2-3 starts of this season and remains at the head of the betting market. This is something I have noticed this week, and will follow up on.

Also, on the blog, I’ve been trying to select short priced horses to lose. Techniques have included logic (big field, 2 year olds, sprint distance, only ran once, worst draw etc) and betting forecast (prices indicate competitive race) and race type (selling stakes, claimers, handicaps) and I have been happy so far. Remember laying odds on needs a 50% strike rate to profit because we are effectively backing ODDS AGAINST with each bet. The value of the blog is that I can keep a record of what I’ve chosen in the past and show “templated” examples in the future.

FOLLOW THE MONEY

Each system I’m testing is ticking along nicely:

Cambridge I don’t like from a practical perspective.

Golden Star is simple and has been effective albeit in this limited time frame.

Money Talks has been ok but the emphasis on place only betting means we will require patience.

Trading Secrets Plan has been consistent through the last month and this month gone, although there have been some inconsistencies between some of my entries and those posted on the website although luckily I do concur with the vast majority. I hope the consistency can continue.

Further testing this month! It will also be interesting to see if Nigel’s betting forecast/live market contrasting system stands the test. I have my Racing Posts, and have noted live market prices against betting forecast prices in the Racing Post to try to determine a pattern. Nigel advises to look for same priced horses in the betting forecast in the Racing Post and in the live market. I’ll keep you informed

COINCIDENCE BETS

Not forgotten I assure you. I’m getting the old grey matter to work to try to get what I have in a shareable format so you ( at least those who have expressed an interest) can see first hand how this betting works and perhaps make the breakthough – the synergy of the group!

The ideal of course is for everything to be viewable online and is something I really want to make work. Steve Braxton, the brains behind the idea, enthuses about this!

GAWD HELP ME – I’M GOING ON A DATE!

I am off to Dublin this weekend. I joined one of those dating websites because it was free, and forgot to cancel after the free period – d’oh and for the craic (I must have been on crack to have joined in the first place)- well one lady has decided that I want to see Michael Flatliner’s Riverdance, when the fecking Munster Final between Cork and Kerry is on. I could not decline her alas, but did have a raft of excuses to hand:

” I have been chosen as the First Irish astronaut and training begins this week”
” My car has 4 flat tyres and the doors fell off so I can’t make it”
” I am the new retained top jockey at Ballydoyle and Johnny Murtagh will be going to Riverdance with you instead”
“Trappatoni has noticed my mother is Irish and invited me off to train with the irish team in Portugal – this weekend! – Damn!”

But they wouldn’t wash.

So it’s a wonderful god knows how many hours drive to meet someone I have never spoken to, to watch something I’ve already seen, and in the process miss Kerry and Cork on Sunday, where many in these parts will be roaring on the Gooch etc.

So wish me luck!

Have a great weekend,

Clive