Another Great ‘Follow The Money’ Strategy
Let’s get down to business. We’ve all heard the expression in betting, ‘Follow The Money’, and even if you don’t agree with it, one has to say that it can certainly pay off! There have been many systems over the years which have embodied the principle, and one of the finest in our collection goes back well over twenty years. That will be our starting point this month, but I have to say there could well be a sting in the tail. This particular system was recently re-introduced to great effect making substantial profits, and I’ll now let you see how it works. I’ll then give you an extra idea of my own (which wasn’t possible twenty years ago) and this, I believe, improves the plan considerably. In the original version the system used the betting forecast of The Sporting Life, but since this is no longer with us I would advise the forecast of The Racing Post instead. Some users have suggested that the betting forecast of the Daily Express works well, but I’d be inclined to stick to the industry paper. I haven’t yet decided about The Sportsman. The chief drawback in the original system was that you had to be in the betting shop to operate it. With today’s teletext and internet available this is no longer the case. Any race can be used as long as the betting price conditions are fulfilled. The chart that follows is the key to the system and indicates when a bet is possible. In the unlikely event of there being two qualifiers in the same race, then split the stake. One final comment – in the original version you had to wait till just before the ‘Off’ before placing your bet. Today I would advise that you place your bet, as you watch teletext or internet, at the ‘Going Behind’ signal.
These were considered as Short Value bets with a recommended stake of 2 points.
If you are interested in increasing the strike rate of the system, then you might decide to back only those bets indicated as Best Value and Short Value.
The logic of the system is obvious. You are following the volume of money being invested on fancied horses and at reasonable value prices.
And now for my additional idea!
You don’t have to wait until just before the ‘Off’ to place your bets because nowadays many betting firms (William Hill and Paddy Power, for example) offer prices on all races before noon. Look at these prices and substitute them in the ‘Price At Going Behind’ column. This will enable you to place any possible bets well ahead of racing taking place.
Here’s the sting in the tail I mentioned. When I read it I couldn’t really believe it, but facts have to be faced even when they go against firmly-held beliefs. Minds have to be kept open. This report appeared in The Racing Post, based on an investigation carried out by Betfair in the second half of 2004. They analysed some 2,000 races involving over 20,000 horses (a fair sample) from the point of view of seeing how shortening-priced horses compared with drifters. Keep in mind that our system involves horses that are shortening in price from The Racing Post forecast.
First, here’s the methodology they used. They defined a shortening-priced horse as one that in the last five minutes before the ‘Off’ shortened by 20% of its price. And conversely, a drifter was one whose price lengthened by 20% in the final five minutes. I can’t fault their approach. And what did they discover? To my utter surprise it turned out that if you’d invested £10 on all the horses that had shortened in price you’d have lost £3,450. But if your £10 was on all the drifters, then you’d have made a beautiful profit of £5,700. For anyone interested in the power of lateral thinking there may be something in these figures worth taking on board. But I think II’ll stick to my system for now – in my experience it really does work!
Finally, regarding in general getting the best price for any selection you are considering, here’s a tip I received more years ago than I care to remember, but for which I’ve had reason to be grateful on many occasions. Don’t take the opening show. Wait for the first show which indicates a reduction in price and take that. Here are three examples to illustrate what I mean:
1. Sir Percy – 9-2, 5-1, 11-2, 6-1. Yo u would take the 6-1 last show or S.P.
2. Sir Percy – 9-2, 5-1, 9-2, 4-1. This time you would take the third show of 9-2.
3. Sir Percy – 9-2, 4-1, 7-2, 10-3 In this case you would take the second show of 4-1.
You don’t always get the best deal, but you do more often than not.