Systems Update:

So, how have the market movers been performing since I introduced the 16/1 in your lunchtime system? Well, not bad at all.

The basic premise here is to make a note of all market movers using the 16/1 system BUT looking at market moves under 16/1 as well.

We then back selections priced 5/1 and under at SP.  I have used all selections found in real time on my blog, which go off at 5/1 or under.

Since the beginning of March a 37.5% strike rate is showing a profit of 24 points to level stakes, which is excellent. To £20 level stakes the profit is £478.  Take a look at www.back-lay-trade-horses-football.blogspot.com where I mention “market movers” and analyse the difference in price between the betting forecast in The Racing Post and the live betting market. Remember, all of these market movers are found BEFORE racing starts.

If you are able to, check the prices of the selections and back every qualifier under 5/1.  You will notice in the blog some slight market movers and horses who were, say, 3rd in the betting forecast but have leapfrogged 1 or 2 at the head of the market to become favourites themselves. This is often an extremely good sign.

Here are some examples:

2nd March 2009

410 LINGFIELD


BETTING FORECAST:
Evs Onemix, 13/8 Boscage, 7/2 Pyrus Time, 50/1 Aegean Rose, 100/1 Tightrope.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There was plenty to like about the debut of Onemix at Kempton in December but, like Pyrus Time, she is going to be suited by middle distances and the costly BOSCAGE, who is much more speedily bred, is an interesting rival.  The 2nd favourite in the betting forecast, Boscage, is now the favourite at 8/13 and has “leapfrogged” Onemix. Boscage won at 6/5 SP.

230 STRATFORD


BETTING FORECAST:
Evs Raincoat, 11/2 Dip In The Med, 13/2 Riddleofthesands, 7/1 Castellina, 12/1Blessed Forever, Izita Star, 16/1 Maille Abaa, 20/1 Samurai Warrior, 33/1 Always Cruising, Surprise Act, 66/1 Street Warrior, 100/1 Elevate Jack, Just Designs, 150/1 Awe.


SPOTLIGHT VERDICT:
Although it was disappointing smart Flat recruit RAINCOAT couldn’t beat the likes of sprint handicapper Geojimali on his hurdle debut at Musselburgh. He still has a lot to offer even on that form in a minor event like this.  Izita Star, you will note, is 12/1 in the betting forecast taken from The Racing Post. The horse was priced at 4/1 with the bookmakers, leapfrogging some 4 horses to become 2nd favourite. Izita star won at 4/1.
4th March

340 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Super Academy, 7/2 Jawaaher, 4/1 Fantastic Dubai, 7/1 Head Down, Keep Ringing, 10/1 Valkyrie, 16/1 Hector Spectre, Love Allowed, 20/1 Abu Dubai, 33/1 Primera Rossa, Rubbinghousedotcom, 66/1 Kings On The Roof.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Jawaaher and Super Academy both remain capable of better but FANTASTIC DUBAI is bred to be a useful performer and can leave his easy-ground debut behind him this time.  Fantastic Dubai was an early mover into 10/11 again leapfrogging 2 horses into favouritism. He won at 8/13 SP.

7th March

215 AYR

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Scolboa Music Man, 6/4 Oh So Humbel, 4/1 Mighty Massini, 20/1 Tommy Tobougg.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Oh So Humbel will presumably set out to make it a good test once more and that could suit SCOLBOA MUSIC MAN, who appeared to doss when he got to the front in winning over 2m 4f here last month. There is little between them on official BHA figures.

Oh So Humbel has leapfrogged into favouritism and odds on. He wins at 8/13.

9th March

220 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Red And White, 4/1 Rock Exhibition, 11/2 Sparkling Montjeu, 6/1 Amouretta, 12/1Bosamcliff, She Is A Cracker, 14/1 Hardly Humble, 20/1 Mistress Eva, 33/1 Tessie Bear.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Form pick Red And White hasn’t been finishing her races with any great conviction so, returned to soft ground here too, there is a doubt as to whether we will see the best of her. As such, a chance is taken on ROCK EXHIBITION, winner of a heavyground Flat maiden in Ireland and who should find this company much easier than when pitched into a useful contest at Newbury for her hurdles debut recently.  Sparkling Montjeu leapfrogs one horse into 4/1. He shortens to 9/4 and wins.

10th March

125 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Dazzling Begum, 11/2 Valentine Blue, 6/1 Cragganmore Creek, Elliwan, 15/2 Casablanca Minx, 9/1 Spume, 12/1 No Rules, Pick Of The Day, 16/1 Dark Planet, Flame Creek, 20/1 Starcross Maid, 33/1 Bond Casino, 40/1 Adversane.  SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Elliwan is worth bearing in mind with Frederik Tylicki having his first ride since November, but it can pay to give DAZZLING BEGUM a chance to make amends for her below-par display last time.

Elliwan has been catapulted into favouritism 13/8 -that’s quite a feat of “leapfrogging” isn’t it? He wins at 15/8.

Do you get the idea here? Some leapfrogs are subtle but have been found to be telling!

And then there’s the old traditional market mover:

12th March

535 STHL

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Safebreaker, 6/1 King Of Legend, 8/1 Nautical, Provost, 10/1 Haroldini, 11/1 Komreyev Star, 12/1 Casino Night, Singora Lady, 14/1 Run Free, 20/1 Billy Bowmore, Newgate, 25/1Maidanni, Sheriff´s Silk, 33/1 Wilmington.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SAFEBREAKER is

probably still weighted to be competitive and is taken to confirm C&D superiority over Nautical. The biggest threats may be King Of Legend, if he handles this surface, and Provost, if he’s fit for this first run since before Christmas.

Provost is now 6/4 – look at the horse’s betting forecast price of 8/1. He wins at 13/8.

9th March

440 STRATFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Oopsmylord, 5/1 Thirtytwo Red, 13/2 Bravery Scotch, 8/1 Kingsmill Lake, Mr Goofy, 10/1 Moscow Court, 14/1 Babysitter, 16/1 Doof, Hume Theatre, 20/1 Super Cannes, 25/1 Watchthespace, 33/1 Balloughton, 66/1 Lanicene, Little Rocker.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OOPSMYLORD has been going places in points and it was good to see him translate that progress to this scene at Leicester, showing a level of form in the process that entitles him to the vote in this company. Thirtytwo Red is a solid alternative, while Mr Goofy could be the surprise package on his Rules debut.

Bravery Scotch a slight mover here into 4/1 and wins at 9/2.

20th March

220 KELSO

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Gilsland, 9/4 Dove Hill, 6/1 On Spec, Sirkeel, 7/1 Stormin Exit, 8/1 Big Burrows, 33/1 Prioryjo, 50/1 Tantobie, 66/1 Bad Lashes, 100/1 Angus´s Antics, 150/1 Rich Girl, 200/1 Dukesfield.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Promising Irish point winner Dove Hill won’t have to be out of the top drawer to win this and could be the answer if the market makes the right noises, but GILSLAND has just about the best form as things stand and, given he’s a half-brother to an Irish National winner, it’s reasonable to expect improvement from him for this step up in distance.

Even though Dove Hill is a non-runner, the only mover is Big Burrows into 10/3, HE wins at 4/1.

19th March

315 STHL

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 La Diosa, 7/2 Amazing Blue Sky, Augusta Gold, 7/1 Urban Space, 10/1 Dispol Diva, 50/1 Canucatcher.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: La Diosa is the pick of the weights but she’s not the easiest of rides and it remains to be seen whether this surface will prove ideal. She is taken on with AMAZING BLUE SKY, who ran creditably over 1m here last time and will be suited by the extra distance.

Dispol Diva 4/1 in places and wins at 4/1.

450 STHL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/2 Gracie´s Gift, My Mentor, 13/2 Tri Chara, 7/1 Cape Of Storms, Royal Challenge,Whitbarrow, 10/1 Another Genepi, Ballycroy Boy, Royal Island, 14/1 Sweet Gale, This Ones For Eddy, 33/1 Dhhamaan.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Gracie’s Gift justified the market support when beating a longstanding maiden on his first run for Richard Guest and may do better. However a penalty in this stronger event makes life tougher and preference is for TRI CHARA.  Already a dual C&D winner this winter, he will be suited by the return to this track after a below-par run at Wolverhampton.

This Ones For Eddy 13/2 in places, Ballycroy Boy 13/2 in places – again, contrast with their betting forecast prices.

This Ones For Eddy the only sub 5/1 horse at the off wins at 4/1. Interestingly, Ballycroy Boy comes 2nd at 13/2.

Bottom line

Reread the “16/1 system in your lunch hour” article in February’s WRWM. Using a blog I find it very easy to check race by race, and eliminate horses that go off at over 5/1.

Check the blog as well and you will see, in real time, “potential” market movers, which I consider.

I don’t care if they drift in price as long as they are 5/1 or lower.

Alas, I have missed winners at 14/1, 10/1, 11/1, 8/1, 7/1, 71 and so forth. That said, there have been many many unplaced horses at over 5/1. BUT there have also been 50/1 2nd placed horses, so it is my intention to look at all qualifiers since the beginning of March on an each way basis.

This will be a worthwhile exercise because a 50/1 placed horse will pay out £125 to £10 each way.  Will this strike rate continue. Only 37.5% but a lot of nice 7/2 to 4/1 winners ensure a decent profit.

You can download the March issue of WRWM HERE