http ://www.kenneth-j -wilson-racingservices.co.uk
Not up to his usual high standards since I last wrote. 3 consecutive wins on 19th, 21st and 30th June and winners on 27th July and 15th August out of 16 selections since 19th June leave us with a marginal profit for the period dependent on the odds we achieved for the lays. SP wins came at 6/5, 6/4, 2/1, and 2 wins at SP 10/3 .
Past results are available for full inspection at the website to determine if this service is appealing. Bets are infrequent but overall a profit does accrue which is important.
I was optimistic after a run of 18 consecutive winning lays recently. Since the 18th June, there have been winners (ie lays that have won their races) at 4/11, 13/2, 10/3, 8/11, 7/4, 11/4, 1/3, 3/1, 5/1, 4/11, and 9/2. The odds of some of the selections mean that lost liability does have a greater impact.
Lee has brought in a new rule in the interim -each selection represents a 4 point risk, and no horses are to be layed if they drift over 4/1. This, I suppose would take out the recent 5/1 and 9/2 selections, thus softening the blow but the rule change would have been too late for the 13/2 shot which won earlier.
Trainer Flat Stats
http://www.trainerflatstats.com/
A service offered by Matt Bisogno, which looks to exploit trainers who have consistently profited in certain course in certain race types over the years. Since 1st July we are running at around a 10-point loss if using level stakes each way betting on all selections (regardless of price!). This loss is greatly reduced if we use Betfair’s enhanced odds. A recent 9/1 winner for Matt would have paid out far greater than 9/1 on Betfair, and these enhanced returns can make all the difference especially with the place only market’s returns for placed horses.
It’s very early in the test to take any firm stance -one month’s data is not conclusive by any means. The logic behind the system is reminiscent of the “signposts for success” system which was touted last year and concentrated on trainers.
Previous results have borne this system out to be profitable over a season so I will be keeping you informed of continuing performance.
Paul Ruffy concentrates on each way betting which has enabled him, in some instances to reduce losses with payouts for placed horses. So how has he been performing recently?
A quiet June after a bad May was more than made up for with an excellent July, heralding 33% ROI and £186 profit to £25 each way stakes for 1 point bets and £12.50 each way for 0.5 point bets.
The trend is very much in an upward motion and has been since I began trialling the bets. I hope August can continue where July left off.
This has continued in a positive enough vein -only 2 losing bets in August, 10 losing bets from 66 in July. My only concern remains the “No Bets” where the odds are on or about 15. As the warning on the website indicates, “The above bets are placed at varying times of the day on Betfair, and are not necessarily SP. These profits are only indicative and are no guarantee of your performance, which is based on stake & timing of odds selection. Past performance is no guarantee of future profits.”
Testers’ Feedback
Thanks must go to all the testers who have volunteered their time and provided some excellent feedback! Going through the myriad emails and categorising feedback by system, it becomes clearer which systems have the potential to work and , of course, those systems which should be put down!
Racing Unlocked
It is becoming clear that concentration on the backing aspect of this system is consistently more fruitful than the laying system. My testers here have reported consistent profits on the back side with a marginal loss around the end of July. This is encouraging.
So what does this strategy entail? To be honest with you the backing system is hardly earth shattering and utilises the old adage “fit, fancied, and in form”. That said, from testers’ feedback it is producing regular profits which cannot be sniffed at.
I’m afraid it is one of those “Tap into the Betfair Millions books” (yawn) and is available at www.racingunlocked.com
The FFF Plan
This has delivered consistent profits in various forms since last newsletter. It is extremely easy to use, but does involve a recovery staking process which I am uncomfortable with. I prefer to cut my losses on any losing day. Testers for this system have sounded a note of caution regarding the loss recovery aspect of the system, although on one occasion, using loss recovery (and a change of underwear no doubt!) a profit of £2,200 was realised mid July.
This is a favourite based system so will follow the fluctuations in fortunes that favourite backers inevitably feel.
Long term, over a year, I am convinced that profits will exceed losing days without the need for excessive loss recovery and the excessive and sometimes uncomfortable stakes that accompany such a staking plan.
I must add that there is a need to follow the early races with this system, and it is not recommended for weekend use. Available from http://www.racefortunes.co.uk/ for £75, the loss recovery element of the system may not be suitable to some and will, at times require balls of steel.
Back Lay Pro
The brainchild of Martin Corkish, whose background is in the world of financials rather that horse racing, Backlaypro mixes backing and laying in a unique way and tester feedback has been positive as regards profits realised. Again, a unique loss recovery staking plan is utilised on both the back and lay sides and stakes, as yet, have not been overtly excessive, but have on occasion been near to uncomfortable if a losing sequence wasn’t broken on the next bet. Available from http://www.backlaypro.com/ for £75, those who do not like loss recovery staking should “look away now!”
Again, alas, it requires the user to follow the live betting market, and is a system which, as testers have shown, produces small but consistent profits. There are occasional losses as with everything and, in the back of any user’s mind, is the problem that anomalies can bring to loss recovery plans.
Stable Income Plan
My regular eletter readers will remember me mention this as one of a myriad of “lay the 2nd or 3rd fav” systems available. This is a high volume laying system which looks to lay in the live market environment. Throughout July, strike rates of 90%, 84%, and generally healthy profits augur well for this system. It must be noted that this is exactly, word for word, the same as horses4courses, apart from the selection of which favourite to lay (between 2nd and 3rd)
Available at www.stableincomeplan.net for £99.95. Please note purchserts of the horses4courses ebook will be duplicating purchase. Purchasers of any other lay the 2nd or 3rd fav systems may also be duplicating purchase.
Lay To Profit
This still maintains an air of consistency ONLY if we remember to exclude maiden races which is not, I’ll admit, mentioned in the ebook, BUT which we can presume if following the rules strictly. Your profit /loss will vary depending on the time you select your bets. I try to be consistent and select bets at 12:30pm every day. I know then that performance will be judged on the prices AT THAT TIME.
I refer you to the previous clause used by the lay crazy guys that performance, not just of this system, but of any other price based lay system, will vary dependent upon the time at which selections are made. If I compared my selections at 12:30 with someone else’s selections 5 minutes before the off, I would suggest they would alter dramatically with market forces being stronger in the 10 minutes before the off.
I am pleased with laytoprofit to date and employ their straightforward staking method, with my own twist. Available from http://www.laytoprofit.com/ for £49.97
7 Golden Rules
This is not a system for general sale, but one I have picked up on my betting travels. It is a backing system, but my tester’s feedback suggests it would be better employed as a lay system! Selections are generally short-priced and the occasional winner is punctuated by numerous losers. I am liaising with my tester to ensure that I am clear on his selection strategy, and if the poor show (for backers) continues this could be christened as a new killer lay system with the ability to allow us to select one a day at a short price.
I’ll keep you informed, but don’t want to commit to this as a lay system until more results are garnered and the poor results become more consistent and not part of a “blip”.
Racing-2-Profit
Throughout July, testers’ feedback has been wholly positive as regards this system – early July one tester reported a doubling of his betting bank (I just hope he didn’t start with £2!). Mid July and an 82% strike rate was noted and more recently a 71% strike rate. This system has been reported as a slow burner. One to definitely keep an eye on. This is another favourites based system incorporating a stop at a winner policy which will probably go some way to explaining the strike rates! You can pick it up for £97 at www.racing2profit.co.uk.
Dominator
Remember I recently said the “Aussies were coming” and that the Dominator was worthy of investigation? Well, it seems as if it has not quite taken off here in the UK if our testers are to be believed. All I got back was a minus figure on each update. Avoid!
Patriarch’s Dinosaur Laying System
Yes, a WRWM freebie exclusive to you and I’ve had nothing but positive feedback on this system. Some readers were so impressed after paper trading that they have decided to take the plunge with this handicap lay system. One reader summed it up well “one to take very seriously!”
Lawrence Taylor’s Laying To Win
I await the start of Lawrence Taylor’s football laying system with trepidation because I am keen to replicate past profits in this upcoming season. But what of his lay system? My tester here is extremely pleased at present. June and 26 lays with only one winning its race. There are only around 200 selections in a year and around 15-20 selections a month. Recently, there have been 8 lays and 1 winning its race. Concerns were raised that prices could be uncomfortably high on some occasions (remember the liability problem when laying at big prices). One to follow. £59 at www.topbettingsystems.com/horse3331 .htm
Saver and Safebet Plan
A poor end to June for the Saver, but this reader’s unsolicited email was vindication that I may have been onto something by marrying the saver with the safebetplan.
“Just writing to thank you once again for informing me about the saver system. When used in conjunction with the safe-bet investment plan it really does work amazingly well. Since you informed me about this system my original betting bank has more than doubled from this system alone.” (sent 21 July 2007)
Available from www.legacy4winners.com, I concentrate on the Saver system rather than the Legacy.
Daily Mail Lays
Here’s a potential lay system for all you Daily Mail readers out there. Lay the betting forecast favourites in the Daily Mail. I have not monitored this system but it was suggested by an experimental reader and is something those who get the Mail may like to keep track of (please paper trade as it’s just an idea thrown in by a reader and, at time of writing, was producing good results for a lay system).
No real progress made since I last updated. A change of staking plan to 4% of bank compounded instead of 6%. My concern is that, when backing short prices, there needs to be sustained winning runs. One loser requires 2-3 winning bets just to regain parity.
http://www.threekeyracing.co.uk/
I must make mention of this system, better known as RaysLays to readers. It is a laying system which has produced consistent results over a sustained period. Developed by a reader (can you guess his name and win a prize?) the system comes in 2 formats – the patient lays system and the regular lays system. The first system, as it suggests, comes up with less frequent bets but the adage quality overquantity is very appropriate here. The regular system has been developed for those who would like more bets on a regular basis. The strike rates mentioned on the site are fully verifiable as I have been monitoring the systems regularly over the past few months. At £147, the price is reasonable as long as the future results continue to the high standard I have come to expect from Rayslays.
Advisory Sheets
I would class the next 2 services not so much as tipsters, rather advice sheets:
If you want a general overview on each day’s racing with horses given the nod by trainer or stable, then this will serve you well. Although Chris does advise his bets of the day, the daily reports give a clear indication of fancies and those not fancied to run well. It is a difficult service to quantify in terms of profit and loss which is why I term the service an advisory service. With the daily reports we get occasional reports from the gallops – horses to “mark your card” with. Presentation is clear. To see if this service is for you, contact Chris via www.kachinaracing.co.uk.
I have been impressed with his analysis particularly regarding 2 year old maiden races, and he has released a book recently featuring 82 2 year olds worth following through to the end of this season and onto next season. As with all maiden races, it is a case of what you know (the 16/1 system will attest to this) so this guide, at £10.95 could prove a value purchase.
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
Once again this is a difficult service to quantify from a profit and loss point of view. This service focuses specifically on the stats and past trends and is comprehensive and extremely professional. With the wealth of information it is, I would suggest, not suited to someone searching for tipsters, rather to the person who wants a full daily analysis of past trends, and useful stats to help with their backing and laying decisions – kind of a racing post with bells on!
Please contact me if you’d like me to send a sample of what’s on offer -I feel then that you can get a glimpse of the kind of in depth advice provided.
Other stuff
I am trying out my own progressive staking selections, so follow my progress at www.back-lay-trade-horses-football.blogspot.com. I want to see if I can bag a couple of winners a day for progressive staking, or target profit per day aficionados. Early indications are good. Please note I may not update the blog each day, I use it very much as a sounding board for ideas. I will, of course try to update regularly.
www.5startipster.co.uk have ceased sending me their advices after I refused to dedicate half of the newsletter to them!
I hope you can see how beneficial testers have been, so please get in touch at whatreallywins@yahoo.co.uk if you would like to test systems, and let me know if you are able to follow the live market especially on Betfair as I cannot possibly trial all of these live market systems myself.
Newbies
No doubt you will have heard the name James Jary in my previous articles on laying, specifically when I reviewed his ebook on laying.
It was well written and contained the usual common sense pointers in what to look for when laying, you know big fields, unpredictable race types etc.
Well, I was happy to read that James had launched his tipping service, because I had the sense that his profit claims were based in reality – he was just playing for bigger stakes and thus got bigger rewards.
Emails passed between us and I have spoken to him on the phone with the express idea of trialling his laying tipping service.
So how has it performed?
A 17-point profit has accrued since my monitoring began and we can’t argue with that.
I have sussed out one of his selection criteria which is very straightforward, and once known, you can follow yourself, but the service does contain other tips and trading tips which can be actioned or left alone. He was particularly successful in his lays in the Tour de Drugs, sorry France, and no doubt when other opportunities arise he will share them with you. We’ve even had a share tip!
A simple daily phone call around 12:30 is all that’s required and I have high hopes that profit will continue on a month by month basis – there are the inevitable losing days of course – it would be unrealistic of me not to mention them. Early stages but I hope I have uncovered a long-term profitable tipping service. If you decide to join ensure stakes are reasonable enough to cover costs.
One to follow! Available via www.dataking2.com at £50 per month. Ensure stakes are sufficient to factor in this cost.
The Format Racing Method
I was pointed in the direction of this system by a reader intrigued that I investigate the claims made in the testimonials of “14 winners in one day!”
How on earth can this be achieved I thought? Place-only betting immediately sprang to mind. It was only when I read the manual that all became clear – this was, of course, another dutching method.
Using the Format Racing Method of dutching, the opportunity arises to really make good consistent profits with losses that remain tightly controlled and the loss amount predetermined before bets are placed. I have been extremely impressed with the format racing method of dutching but must add here that, from personal experience, I have been altering the system with some race types. Purchasers of the system will know what I’m saying.
Profits in the last few days have been consistently around the 7 points a day mark which is excellent. The potential with the system is exciting BUT we face another problem as far as any dutching system is concerned and that is some readers’ inability to follow the live racing. This is a prerequisite for this kind of system and I am unsure this early on as to whether the system will stand alone as a profitable system if just used at the weekend.
The FR Method is extremely easy to follow and implement although I personally submit my bets using the dutching facility on Fairbot.
There can be plenty of winners on a daily basis but, at times, the profits earned in the afternoon have been eroded by later losses. This has led me to question whether we stop at a predetermined profit for the day or back more horses per race without compromising stake size if the races allow.
I am pleased with my early findings, as is my tester for this system. Updates will be included in the weekly eletter. The results on the website are verifiable by me but I must reiterate you will need to be in a position to follow the live racing during the afternoon to enable replication of the advertised results. The results also look to use a stop at a profit methodology and use large stakes to make returns look impressive. These kind of stakes require a decent sized betting bank , say around £3K upwards so please bear that in mind.
http://www.simplextrading.co.uk/
I received an interesting advert for a new system recently – £20K profit starting from 10p stakes – yeh right and I’m Bill Gates! I had to investigate. The system is called the Simplex Trading System and what is immediately noticeable is that the system has nothing at all to do with trading and, yes, is very simple indeed. It is its very simplicity which means I cannot even hint as to what it is, but I will update you regularly via the newsletter and the eletter as to the system’s progress. Yes it really is easy to implement and yes you do start with 10p stakes but there is a niggle with me regarding the proposed staking system. It remains to be seen whether a reasonable profit will accrue without stakes increasing beyond uncomfortable levels. I’ll keep you posted.
Encouraged by the results posted on his website, I immediately got in contact with Martin Blakey, the man behind Target 10, in order to blag, on your behalf, dear reader, his book on profiting from handicap races. If the results were to be believed then Mr Blakey has cracked the code!
It now transpires that Mr Blakey has withdrawn his ebook thanks to Relay agents selling his previous material at knock down prices (in which other industry would this blatant breach of copyright be allowed?). Luckily he has set up a tipping service, and, again, in my search to get away from people such as the Sweeney and glossy brochure buffoons such as the Accumulator Advisor, I am glad to be able to proof his tips in the hope I can uncover for you another tipster who produces the goods with realistic target profits and a system with a solid foundation of previous results.
I know that handicap races generally offer decent odds because of the very fact that they can be hard puzzles to solve, and Mr Blakey claims to have developed a strategy to highlight steady progressive handicappers with the potential to improve way beyond their bare form figures.
I have only been trialling the tipping aspect of the service for a week so results are naturally inconclusive. 5 selections proofed thus far, 1 loss at 7/2, 2 placed horses at 11/2 and 4/1 and 2 wins at 10/3 and 10/11.