The Aussies Are Coming! But Should You Give a Castlemaine XXXX For Their Systems?

Trying to broaden my horizons in the global internet age, I have been trying to uncover some systems sold by Australians who, in their blurb, assure me that their systems are wholly applicable to UK racing. Here are 2 of the more prominent promoters that you may be familiar with.

www.stevendavidson.com/heaven/ – the Racing’s 7 Steps to Heaven

I saw the following question on the site

“However, if you are reading this, I know you are, and if this is the case, you, like me, are interested in making money that keeps coming and coming, am I right?”

And immediately thought Steve Davidson had hired Jade Goody as his copywriter. After the initial chuckle, I was intrigued by the claim of an 80% strike rate when all of the 7 rules are followed.

Great, I thought, an 80% backing system – I could make some serious wonga here. Furthermore:

“It shows in detail, along with plenty of examples, how to pinpoint your horse, or horses, for the day.”

You are probably aware by now that the lack of examples in most ebooks is a bugbear of mine. If this guy’s showing me step-by-step actual examples, then I can’t go wrong!

We also get the Personal Finance Plan by Frankie Franks, which offers a 75% strike rate. BONZA!

I sent off for my eBook for $67.97, and received a number of eBooks in return, including the 7 Steps, the PFP plan, all weather and +18. The latter intrigued me – was this an x rated horse racing system?

The 7 Steps

I don’t think I will be giving too much away if I précis the 7 steps:

“1. Only use suitable races 2. Only use improving horses 3. Only use fit and healthy horses 4. Only use ‘real speed’ figures on our horses 5. Only use races with a significant set of true form 6. Only use your chosen horse after you have doubled checked it 7. Only use a staking plan you are completely happy with, this one works for me, and will you, if you decide to use it.”

Common sense really, I didn’t pay $67.97 for what Basil Fawlty will term “the bleedin’ obvious!”.

As I read the system I got a deja vu moment: you see it was word for word a system I had bought some 6-7 years ago from a man in the UK called Colin Smith. He used to have an excellent website but alas is no longer active.

It has just been recreated verbatim by Frankie Franks, who I would venture, Miss Marple hat on, is a made up name.

But what about the system itself?

Let’s look at each point in turn

1) Only use suitable races. I have covered this

previously in WRWM. Again common sense tells us prospective winners carrying my money over 3 miles and obstacles had better be rock solid, used to the distance and proven over the obstacles. The premier edition of the newsletter goes into this in depth. I have mentioned race type countless times. Remember the question I asked in the Premier edition of the Newsletter – what would be the ideal type of race you’d like a horse you backed to be running in? A seller? 2-year-old debutant maiden? Novice hurdle? You get the idea.

2)        Only use improving horses. In a previous newsletter I gave you a unique way of calculating progressive horses? Well why not use it here. (Please email me if you need a reminder)

3)        Fit and healthy horses – this is hinted at in my one-a-day lay article.

4)        Only use real speed figures. This was an interesting idea of Colin Smith’s (sorry Frankie Franks!) where we look at the actual form of the last race, the time when compared to standard and can analyse, when comparing with other horses, the perceived fastest horse in today’s race.

5)        I presume he means here to ignore debutant races where form figures are scarce.

6)        Only use your chosen horse after you have doubled checked it – ok fair enough!

7)        Only use a staking plan you are completely happy with, this one    works for me, and will you, if you decide to use it.” The big secret is it’s a 10% of bank staking plan, covered in depth previously by me.

All in all I have covered various aspects of the system in WRWM in the past, and cannot possibly recommend this “hardly new” system.

From personal experience, the system is not as simple as implied but there is an element of workability to it, which I am keen to reinvestigate. The problem with a system such as this is that it is open to different interpretation by different people.

The Personal Finance Plan

Free with the package came another system by, yes you guessed it, Frankie Franks!

Hardly original, this is a variation of the system appears as the FFF Plan, published by http://www.novapublications.co.uk/. The core of the system is the idea that we look to win a specified amount PER DAY by backing favourites in certain races. In other words, this is a take on a progressive staking plan – the main difference is that our target is per day and not per race, as is traditionally the case with progressive staking. This particular system looks to bet on 5 favourites a day, over evens and includes joint favourites. Personally, I would not bet on joint favourites because this is effectively 2 bets in one race but that is a personal thing. I tried out the criteria and became very excited with the results. My first 7 days of betting produced required winners well within the 5 bet limit for the day. The 8th day produced no winners, and here, my good old friend Frankie Franks advises to carry over your betting to the next day. I duly followed his suggestion and my profit target was reached by bet 3 on the second day. Effectively I had gone 7 bets without a winner using this particular form of progressive staking – not the ideal situation to be in, especially if you were looking to win £50 a day as Frankie shows as an example.

On the plus side, all odds are greater than evens and there is a mixture of odds from evens up to 4/1 which is welcome with progressive staking.

The next 20 days went swimmingly with profit targets reached easily within the 5 bet limit. We had another blank day but luckily the next day produced a 15/8 winner to end the cycle.

The big problems arrived a month down the line when we went 2 days without a winner in the two 5 bet cycles. Strictly following Frankie Franks suggestion of carrying over to Day 2 if day 1 does not yield any winners would leave us looking to win our daily target while staking increasingly larger amounts in the pursuit of the initial target profit. The winner came after 13 bets, and in the real world, stakes would become uncomfortable for the every day punter.

Let me give you a real example of the selection system at work on 21st February and 22nd February this year. The rules for these examples are that we do not bet odds on shots or joint favourites. We are looking to win £50:

BET 1 4/1 STAKE £12.50 LOSE -£12.50

BET 2 5/1 STAKE £12.50 LOSE -£25

BET 3 15/8 STAKE £40LOSE -£77.50

BET 4 3/1 STAKE £42.50 LOSE -£120

BET 5 4/1 STAKE £42.50 LOSE -£162.50

CARRY OVER LOSS TO NEW DAY AND INCLUDE NEW £50 TARGET

BET 6 7/2 STAKE £75 LOSE -£237.50

BET 7 7/4 STAKE £192.86 LOSE -£430.36

BET 8 9/4 STAKE £235.71 LOSE -£666.07

BET 9 6/4 STAKE £510.72 LOSE -£1177

BET 10 9/2 4/1 STAKE £319.25 LOSE -£1496.25

CARRY OVER LOSS TO NEW DAY AND INCLUDE NEW £50 TARGET

BET 11 11/8 STAKE £1161 LOSE -£2693.52

BET 12 9/4 STAKE £1264 LOSE -£3957

BET 13 2/1 STAKE £2054 WIN +£4107.31

We would have had to stake over nearly £4000 to win our 3 £50 targets for day 1, 2 and 3! Even a modest £5 a day target would have required an outlay of nearly £400.

So is there anything we can do to ensure thsese large stakes amounts do not accumulate?

We could spread the loss from Day 1 around smaller cycles. E.g. instead of looking to win back £162.50 in Day 2 (including 2 lots of £50) we could look to just retrieve the loss over say, 10 bets. We can forego profit at this time in the hope of sustaining the betting bank for future betting opportunities (these losing days are not the norm!)

We could write off the loss for day 1 and treat Day 2 as a new day. (We would have to write off the loss for Day 2 as well) . Personally I would be inclined towards this because winning days in my test far outweigh losing days, and if losing stakes are around that £162 marker (the equivalent of 3 days profit at £50) this is easily absorbed over the long term.

www.novapublications.co.uk

The Personal Finance Plan bears an uncanny resemblance to the FFF Plan found at the above website. Developed by Dr Dennis Coote and Hazel Reed, they claimed to have turned £12 into £7,000 in just over 4 weeks (I wonder if they are in the same cloud cuckoo land as Mr Money Vault?).

Their FFF Plan is more in depth than The Personal Finance Plan and offers a simple backing ladder calculator to help calculate stakes quickly. They did also recommend carrying over losses to a new day but in smaller increments – similar I suppose to my smaller betting cycles principle. On sale for £52.77 this is a more in-depth study into the principle of backing favourites to win a target profit. On reviewing the manual, yes there was plenty of warning regarding how to react to a losing cycle and they did tend to agree with the principle of writing off losses. They also sounded a note of caution to be wary of certain days’ racing, such as Saturdays and Bank Holiday and the big meetings (Royal Ascot included!) This makes sense I suppose. They have identified the possibility of crossovers in race times on a busy Saturday so from a purely practical perspective Saturdays are better left alone.

My testing has, by necessity, been done not in “real time” but by looking over past results. This is not the ideal way of operating and testing this system because races do not go off at the appointed time, there will be delays thanks to jockey injuries and problems with horses entering the stalls for instance, and there will be flip flopping favourites right until start time.

To say that Dr Dennis Cootes and Hazel Reed are the outright originators of this form of betting I can’t be sure, because as I have already said, this system has been out there in the public domain for years. I guess Dr Cootes and Hazel Reed just tidied it a little, and good old Frankie Franks made it his own.

Bottom line

This plan really excites me, BUT only if I write off my losing days – it’s a hard pill to swallow but long term should not adversely affect profits. There is a practical problem that might arise and that is with the timings of the races. In an ideal world the 2pm race will go off at 2pm. This will finish before the 210 race and so on and so on. However delays do crop up as can happen with a loose horse, a 2-year-old maiden where one horse is playing up in the stalls, or the need to delay racing for the ambulance to return. This, I’m afraid, is what happens in the real world and there will be days when races will overlap. This is not covered in the manual alas.

This system isn’t new and is being advocated, in various guises by the likes of, Nova Publications and John Ager with his take on the system as it relates to greyhounds. The Ultimate Betting System by Phil Moulds (www.ultimatebettingsystem.com) is staking software which incorporates this staking philosophy and will do the calculations for you, as well as utilise a stop loss facility (a prearranged amount you can lose on a given day) Perhaps setting this stop loss to 3 day’s profits would be a wise move.

This system definitely deserves continuous monitoring on my part. This target profit per day method is far more relaxing than progressive staking, which seeks to make a target profit per race. A 13 run with progressive staking using the above example would result in stakes totalling more than £10K to win £650 (13 bets x £50)!

This particular form of staking is easy to work out if you want to experiment on some ideas of your own. Let me give you an example:

Target Profit PER DAY £10: BET 1 ODDS 7/4 to win £10 we simply multiply the target profit by the odds in reverse. EG £10 multiplied by 4 divided by 7 = £5.71 required to stake to win £10. Simplicity itself.

Get practicing

Why not try the first 5 non-handicap races of the day? Or the first 5 handicap races of the day? Or the first 5 races of the day? I have also been told that this system may prove profitable by backing the 1st races of each meeting and the last races of each meeting. Try it out for yourself. Decide also whether you will include odds-on shots and joint favourites. I missed a large number of winners by strictly adhering to my rules of not including odds on shots and joint favourites (for me the stakes are too high). I suppose I could stretch to 4/6 odds who knows?

All weather

The package also includes a system on the all weather. It reads well and is logical but I have focussed predominantly on the above system. I will be trialling this (or one of you can test it for me – hint hint!). It looks to back horses based on their topspeed ratings and at working man’s odds of between 4/1 and 14/1. The system is reliant on a strike rate big enough to absorb the inevitable losing runs that come with bigger prices.

The final part of the all-weather package I have looked into. It looks to back favourites under certain circumstances at Lingfield and Wolverhampton and the system was formulated around statistics and favourites runnings under certain circumstances. Personally I would prefer to look at the racing on a day-by-day basis rather than rely on past trends, which belonged -well – in the past!

Over this year there have been 54 qualifying bets, with 20 winners – a 37% strike rate. A £100 betting bank to level stakes of £5 has produced a return of 15% to date. The bank dropped to a low of £75 at one time. Using the safebetplan boosted this return to £146 but the bank reached a low of £44. The longest losing run was 9 with this system.

The 18+ System

Again, a group of systems I have not had time to test: one system looks to exploit the runnings of last time out winners under certain circumstances and awards points if they meet certain criteria. It has a good basis to it in theory but I am yet to see the results in the real world. Again, you can test it for me if you like.

This eBook is full of different systems and really acts as an advertisement for Frankie Franks, Charles Charlie Charles or Steven Davidson’s affiliate products. That does not mean I should readily dismiss the systems grouped in the eBook. I will be selective in the ones I chose and report back.

Bottom Line

Frankie Franks seems to have incorporated a wide number of systems which have in the past been readily available elsewhere into one package and resold it as his (or Charles “ Charlie” Charles’s). For this reason I am reluctant to recommend it to you. That said, the £50 (or whatever amount you are comfortable with of course) system, the PFP, while not new, is definitely exciting and is something worthy of pursuit. I must sound a note of caution here. Long losing runs will result in huge stakes in relation to target profit. It is for this reason that I would advocate a different approach to this type of betting. I think, for this to work for me, I will have to write off losses as and when they occur. I am eager to try this with the ultimate betting system software and conclude that we may have found a system that can benefit us in reaching our daily goals.

I would make your target profit a small percentage of your betting bank if you want to carry cycles over to the next day.

This Aussie has certainly opened my eyes to the potential of target profit per day betting, for which I am grateful. It would be nice to contact Colin Smith, the originator of the 7 steps philosophy – he may like to meet Frankie “Frank” Franks.

http://www.diyinvestments.com.au/

The second Aussie I tracked down was John Pringle who offers his dominator plan and new take on dutching with the multi-bet spreadsheet. Having just received the package I tried to get my head round it in time for this newsletter but Stephen Hawking’s phone was engaged. Yes the multi bets is a complicated affair and is not helped by the very unclear instructions, which accompany what is another form of staking.

This is a pity as I would have liked to report on it for this issue, but will definitely need the intervening time between now and the next newsletter in order to figure out how the spreadsheet can benefit me financially.

From my initial reading ofTthe Multi-bet Plan, it looks to be another good money management tool with the emphasis firmly on making your betting more professional and business like. The betting bank is split into 3 separate banks, A, B and C. Bank B is triggered only after a certain loss trigger in Bank A following a losing run. This is a great idea in itself. As you can probably surmise I am not describing the full workings in this article.

The author offers an interesting selection strategy to follow in the multi bets plan – unique because it is based on price above all else. He advocates backing a horse at odds as close to $4 or 4.00 in decimal odds with 1 point to back and 3 points to place if the place price is 1.30 or higher. This is definitely something I can follow in the next month and report back for you.

Although his experience is based on the Australian races, it would be interesting to see if this selection method is applicable to the betting exchanges and UK racing. I would guess that we need to chose our races carefully, and race size.

The Dominator Plan

Again another priced based selection system, which interests me because there is NO FORM ANALYSIS WHATSOEVER – hooray! One less thing to do. Up to 3 horses are backed in a single race if they meet the predetermined prices the Dominator Plan suggests.

The examples Mr Pringle has given us are from the Australian races again, but it would be a good exercise to see how his system translates to the UK racing. Again he does hint at the global application of the system. I will report back in full on this system in a future newsletter and possibly in future eletters.

Conclusion

John Pringle’s systems are really worthy of further investigation because of their unique aspects. Backing horses based on price criteria rather than form can help the novice bettor greatly. The multi-bet spreadsheet looks to have potential if only I can decipher the unclear instructions. Perhaps I can email Mr Pringle in this regard, having already corresponded with him.

As to Frankie Franks, well there is nothing new at all in the package offered. It’s new twists on already known ideas and an uncanny similarity to the betting system sold by the UK’s Colin Smith many moons ago. The 7 Steps are open to misinterpretation by different users and are largely commonsensical. I have covered all its main elements elsewhere.

The Personal Finance Plan is the one good thing I can take from the package. I am keen to see how it will work when applied to greyhound racing as well as horse racing and will definitely let you know if I can suss out a greyhound strategy for the interesting staking plan.

The actual staking plan is available in various guises elsewhere, and is automated in The Ultimate Betting System package as sold by Phil Moulds. By marrying Phil Moulds software with the suggested selection system I am hopeful of consistent long-term profits, as long as I can negate the long losing runs by either writing off losses or looking to retrieve target profits and lost stakes via smaller target betting cycles. It will be a very interesting exercise in the weeks ahead to see if I can meet my target profits, and I will certainly give you full details if profits can be gained over a consistent period. It certainly looks promising thus far but as with any favourite backing system is open to the anomalous runs of losers that will inevitably occur sometime. It is what we do when these anomalous runs occur that will determine our long-term profitability.