Hi,

HATTON K.O. = DUTCH O.K!

Yes the Hatton Mayweather dutch came off in spectacular style last weekend with Ricky Hatton ‘s KO in the 10th round.

It was always a good bet, backing both fighters to win in one of the 12 rounds! Nice little return for £48 total stake. Threse bet types don’t fall into any mechanical system alas but are one of those that I stumbled upon.

MULLING THINGS  OVER

I’m travelling back to Guernsey in the next couple of days so may miss some emails – please bear with me until I get connected back in the island. It’ll be good to see the old friends again and share some rocquettes cider (as Homer Simpson would say “Hmmmmmm Rocquettes Cider!”) and meet my nephews and nieces who love Xmas and want their Uncle Clive to shell out his hard earned on some toys that they will be bored of by 5pm Chrstmas Day!

I really am not with it with the “KIDS” alas in my old age so haven’t got a clue what to buy. I’ve opted for a remote control helicopter for the boy – you can’t go wrong with that – cue flying it into the greenhouse and smashing it within the first 1/2 hour! For the little nieces, well what’s it to be? Girls, as we know, are adept at shopping and us men are not in the same league – even 7 year olds are experts! Lots for me to mull over with some, er, mulled wine!

I will only have my laptop with me this Xmas which means that results will be collated and added to the website in the new year when I return to Ireland. I’ll be using Fast track plans for presentation purposes and this should enhance interpretation of results One system I did mention which is still performing is the extremely simple -what I’d like to call my “Jade Goody” system – no you don’t have to be in East Angular with Heinstine to be able to use it. It is so simple that Jade herself could

(after a 6 week intensive course) pick the selections Go to Racing Post – look through betting forecasts at all meetings – pick shortest priced horse from all betting forecasts – back it using 10% rolling bank – go to East Angular.

Easy – odds are really really short but I have profited since September to level stakes using 10% of the betting bank on a rolling basis. This is largely down to a recent run of 15 consecutive wins which may not be replicated
in the future.  Worth monitoring, I think, for a full 12 months to see if the short odds will produce an extended profit and the strike rate necessary to sustain the system.

Others? – well the Top 6 Handicap system has started spitting out winners above the evens -2/1 price bracket, and a large proportion of horses are still placing, so this is definitely one to keep on the right side of – it seems to have all of the ingredients for a good backing system:

– it selects in small fields (immediately our rivals are cut)
– it selects the best horses ( best weighted in handicaps )
– it selects horses with good recent form ( last 2 races horses must have placed) and horses who are fit (within 15 days)
– it all adds up to a consistent little system.

I will look over the results when I return to Ireland in January and see it limiting prices to evens – 2/1 still profits , or if standard each way betting ,or a variation of each way betting (perhaps larger stakes on place only betting with some stakes on the win only part of the bet) produces a good return. In any case, a system with definite potential which is not being sold by Stephen Brookes  – unbelievable scenes!

More on that in a moment…

LAZY LAY SYSTEM RECOMMENDATION

If you missed my email last week, you really should check this out:

How to make £17,500 pure profit in 11 months backing horses to lose on all weather venues

I have been tracking The Lazy Lay System since June: it uses the subtle difference between the all weather venue surfaces and pinpoints short-priced favourites or market leaders who have a greater likelihood of losing their races.

And I’ve been VERY impressed with the results so far. You can check them out here:

http://www.lazylaycp.co.uk/

STEPHEN BROOKES V MYSTIC MEG

Stephen is not a man to rest on his laurels – the football maestro free bets have inevitably turned into an ebook, which follows hot on the trail of System Zero Zero ( note to Santa – thesaurus for Brookes for Xmas!). Admittedly some followers of the tips made money, and that, I guess, cannot be sniffed at. The 83% strike rate is good, but expected if the odds for most selections are heavily odds on and generally under evens. His recent email crows about the winners he’s selected, one of which was a 1.22 shot – hardly earth shattering and brave!

I will take a stab at the system Stephen will be releasing – here goes with my Mystic Meg / Russell Grant head on:

1) look through the day’s football matches and make a note of all selections below evens, focussing on those teams playing at home predominantly.

2) now with this short list look at recent goalscoring form for both home and away sides. Has the short odds team been winning consistently and scoring. Have the away team been conceding and losing in away games – use websites such as http://www.soccerstats.com

3) check out websites such as www.betdevil.com to see their ratings for the games – if one of the short priced teams have an 80+% likelihood of winning then make a note

4) back the 2 ultra short priced teams with the best recent form and record ,who have also beaten their opponents consistently in the past , in a double to push the odds up to 1.5 or thereabouts

5) – that’s it!

You’ll come up with the same ultra shorties that have appeared in the football maestro emails. If anyone does buy the ebook, please let me know.

I do like football betting and have been personally focussing on ultra shorties and alternatives to backing 1/5 or shorter teams  in order to enhance the odds. I have found that the really short priced teams will probably score twice at least, which points us in the direction of a over 2.5 goal bet at odds far exceeding the meagre win only odds.

In some instances it may be worth chancing an over 3.5 goals bet to really bring the odds closer to evens. With these over 3.5 goal bets, I would back teams like Man Utd v Derby which I flagged up in the blog – 1\9 shots at home which you could back for near evens on the over 3.5 goals. Again trading is the ideal here.

CELTIC V FALKIRK

Also consider the half time/full time markets to enhance the odds for heavily odds on shots in the football, particularly if they are playing at home, and take into account recent circumstances too. A recent example from the blog again and I focussed on Celtic against Falkirk.

I looked at previous head to heads – Celtic beat Falkirk at their ground 4-1 recently. This can give me a suggestion of the likely score. Also consider teams of similar ability who have faced the opposition. In this case we can look at Rangers performances against Falkirk – 3-1 was the score that day so the expectation for goals is given a further boost. (Transferring this to the Premiership if we are focussing on a top four team ,how have the opposition fared against another of the top 4?)

Now look at Celtic’s recent form and circumstances. They have drawn their last 2 games and surely another draw will not be tolerated and could jeopardise their Scottish title hopes.

I had 2 options here, the over 3.5 goals bet or the Celtic Half time/full time bet – ie backing Celtic to win in the first half and second half.

Final score 4-0 to Celtic (2-0 half time)

It really is not that difficult is it – like I do with the horse racing, it’s a case of logic and a gathering of evidence to support the most likely outcome.

Another option is laying opponents to 1/5 or thereabouts shots in a multiple to back. Very very rarely will opponents of short odds on teams playing at home win. Yes they may draw but rarely win, and by laying in a multiple we can increase returns. Remember, if using Betfair multiples, we want to BACK the lays – ie we think these lays are going to lose so we back the multiples.

Odds can be increased by including a home team to win their match.

The horses have been frustrating this week with the arrival of heavy ground and soft ground which makes analysis difficult. Ideally races in this ground are worth swerving. Again you could take a stance is opposing favourites, especially in the last race of the day in heavy ground, where previous races would have cut up and worsened the ground making it more likely that there will be anomalous results!

I have been suffering from 4thitis with some each way bets this week – extremely frustrating indeed. Seconditis is a disease many win only bettors suffer but 4thitis for each way backers is as frustrating as a conversation with Jade Goody.

BOTS

Thanks to respondents to the bot testers shout out last week – I’ve made a note of names and will be following up in the new year. Bots, of course, are only as useful as the selection procedure programmed into them so it will be interesting to see if any profit. They offer a great facility for you to make your money work for you without your monitoring and as such are worthy of further investigation.

I’ve added another lay tipster to the roster in www.xlays.co.uk – clever title eh! The results have been extremely consistent and profitable on the website ( aren’t they all) and I have been promised an extended trial. Some of the lay tipsters I had on my roster have proved very disappointing . No lay bets for 2 weeks, then one selection who wins at 11/2 – what!

I want to start proofing some readers’ systems at http://www.whatreallywinsmoney.com in the new year.

One reader is proving extremely fruitful with his system and I will be proofing his results daily at the site in the new year. Any other readers with systems they want to proof to other readers please let me know and you can expose them to the readership of the website. Please do, though, provide details of money management/staking and rules if you are interested in proofing.

I’m off now, touchdown in Guernsey soon ,mince pies – check, the great escape check – I’ve also put 2 stockings up in case a certain Brook comes down my chimney – I’d prefer the Brook to a satsuma which is probably what I’ll end up with when I check the stockings.

Bye for now and have a great weekend,

Clive