Readers of my blog at http://www.back-lay-trade-horses-football.blogspot.com will probably be scratching their heads wandering what the Friar Tuck I am on about with market movers in a blog dedicated normally to place only betting.

Well, read all in the next newsletter in the 16/1 in your lunchtime article.

The purpose of this article and the selections on the blog is to see if we can operate a16/1 type system BEFORE racing starts (with a compromise on time because the live bookmaker markets have to be adequately formed)

Results in a certain price cap have been excellent – that price cap – anything sub 5/1 ,and generally 9/2 , 4/1, 7/3 , 10/3. Plenty of winners over the last few days!

Traditionally the 16/1 system focuses on the bigger prices but it is this pattern that I have found to be the most profitable. It could be an anomaly, but there is an element of logic to it. If a horse who is priced at 10/1 in the betting forecast shortens (apparently!) to 4/1 and is near the head of the live betting market, it is this move which seems stronger than, say, a 33/1 horse in the betting forecast whose price in the live betting is 16/1.

I am excited by it, and a couple of winners in the last 2 days keeps the great strike rate up. While we’re talking about the blog, the place only selections have reached another 100% strike rate this week, so its happy days and happy profits with POOR prices generally (this is not for people looking for 8/1 winners!)

The options for those without the patience for compounding?

Level stakes on each selection daily should generally double your money every week, as long as the 100% weekly strike rate can be maintained (and of course there is no guarantee of this BUT when you select one bet a day you have an outstanding chance!)

10% of a rolling betting bank was mentioned too – this will enahnce profits above the level stakes amount.

Or, how about accumulator staking. Start with a specific amount at the beginning of the week, and back each selection with the original stake plus accumulated winnings for previous days. This will return well every week, and we will only lose our original stake after a loser.

Some of the selections included football bets, standouts Man Utd against Fulham at 1.22 and over 2.5 goals in the Forfar v Rangers match. The latter match does offer the chance to search for enhanced odds to increase the unappetising match odds price.

1/10 shots away means only one thing to these eyes – and that’s goals. Immediately the over 2.5 goals, over 3.5 goals or over 4.5 goals markets will increase the price for a 1/10 shot and offer an outstanding opportunity for collecting. As it turned out, Rangers won 4-0. The happy medium generally then is over 3.5 goals.

These kind of bets can be traded when in running, and it’s with trading that I turn for another article. I have been quite taken by the apparent logic of the overs system at http://www.oversandundersbetting.com. YES, you’ll recognise the Brookes template but if the overs methodology within this ebook is applied with trading in mind, we can generally profit after the first goal is scored (and preferably the 2nd goal as we are betting OVER 2.5 goals will be scored)

I think you’ll find the, err, findings useful and useable if you are looking for an angle into profitable football trading. It has shown consistency if applied with quality leagues and this is my personal philisophy with football – bet with what you are most familair with.

Elsewhere in the newsletter you’ll read about another loss retrieval tipster who has, again, hit that anomalous day where all of the horses he selected to lose, won their races! BUT, there may be a glimmer of hope with this one if you have faith in the capabilities of the man making the selections. The key distinction with this service is the betting cycle which has been reduced to 3, which limits losses.

We should have learned from autolays that this avenue of profit is perhaps not the most reliable, though, so alternative methods should ideally be employed over the long term.

With a number of websites closing down, (and websites such as www.easymoneybettingsystem.com which recently launched the usual affiliate ebook closing down quicker than usual) we really do have to be on our toes. I have then tried to change the systems and tipsters update to mention really only those tipsters who are profiting or show a likelihood for long term profit – simply cut to the chase really!

I’d like your feedback on the systems and tipsters update – any ideas welcome, but do remember it’s just me (I just can’t wangle extra cash from the bossman for a nice secretary!)

Jeremy Chapman Tastic

I gave him a small mention last year after a couple of superb results, but Jeremy Chapman, the Racing Post’s golf tipster has been absolutely superb since the turn of the year. Recent wins at 80/1 (with 2nd at 20/1 in the same event), and  66/1 runner up really makes him one to watch. Imagine those odds on Betfair – it’s bringing a tear to my eye.

You can get the tips via the newspaper at the Racing Post, and I am certainly including a few each way selections from him (although I know these prices won’t win every week, let’s face it we don’t need a big strike rate to get a good return).

So do keep an eye out for Jeremy Chapman’s Racing Post column – one to follow and the price is right too – erm, free if you go to your local bookie with a notepad and pen!

As far as horse racing is concerned, we are not likely to bag a win of these sizes and it is interesting from my perspective that horse racing systems fall into certain price categories.

For example, we have the Sharp End System from Bernard Hibbert, which attempts a high strike rate with short priced favourites, there’s my price gappers which attempt an even higher strike rate with even shorter prices, and there’s the big price systems like the NH Trend Spotter from MD Professional Sports betting which seeks to bag big priced winners only (generally double figures) but with a low strike rate.

It would be a good idea from your perspective to see which category would fit better into your betting philosophy.

Each have their negatives and positives…

The Sharp End System, for instance had a very poor strike rate through January (weather affected no doubt). My place only system had a 100% strike rate but at prices which ,well, you wouldn’t write home about.

Systems like the MD Professional’s recently bagged an 11/1 winner but with a preceeding 10 long losing run, compounding a recent 22 horse losing run!

These are mechanical systems and those with access to the live market of course will find that money talks as my recent findings at the start of the newsletter attest to.

As to laying, well it seems to be the reverse doesn’t it?

Lay Short prices and don’t expect a high strike rate. Lay generally big prices and expect a high strike rate but with big liability.

2 systems I have fit into these categories.

Paul Fowlie’s Dodgy Favourites falls into the first category and Winners to Losers into the latter.

I have recently just got my hands on the former so cannot comment – this will be something for a future newsletter and the website (and thanks to those readers for their feedback on the website, I will be taking action to update the content on the site at more regular intervals.

It’s all about what you can handle then. Your aversion to risk or not, your desire for bigger prices and the hope of bigger returns but with attendant longer losing runs, or your desire for big strike rate but at very short prices.

Make your choice!

I’m off now to see if I can score a goal

Have a great weekend

Clive Keeling