Revealed: 3 highly recommended systems for backing horses to lose
A vital addition to your betting strategy is the ability to oppose certain horses – that is you back them to lose races rather than win. The betting exchanges have yet again made this a possibility.
So how can you lay? If you go to your traditional bookmaker, you will only be able to back horses to win. If your horse doesn’t win, neither do you. When you lay a horse, the great advantage is that all of the other horses are running for you. Take a quick tour of www.betfair.com, the market leader and the site where you can lay your horses.
Beware your liabilities! It’s not as easy as you might think to pick losers. The liability issue is a key element if you want to succeed as a layer. But laying a 5/1 horse is the same as backing a 1/5 horse, and laying a 33/1 outsider is the same as backing a 1/33 shot.
For every £10 you want to win on that 33/1 shot, you have to risk £330. This £330 is your liability – you will lose this amount if the 33/1 horse you opposed actually goes on to win the race. And they do – believe me! So, if it’s crossed your mind to actually start opposing outsiders, you will only be making small gains for potentially big losses, and one day that outsider will win!
That’s why good selections and money management are a must! These are the keys you must look for in a laying system. Here are 3 systems I’ve tracked and analysed. The good news is they are ALL producing a large number of losers – let’s take a look
System 1: Nick St. John’s The Lay betting Selection System
This system is simplicity itself. After getting used to the criteria I could pick potential horses to oppose with ease. The author boasts a 95% strike rate with his best selection of the day. But let’s see how he did in the real world…
Having only recently come across this system, I began on the 3rd February and will continue day in and day out to ensure that any test period profits are not caused by a lucky streak. Operating on a points structure where 6 points = excellent lay and 1 = not so confident, here’s what it produced:
3/2/06 – 2 selections scoring 3 – both lost the race 4/02/06 – 3 selections scoring 4 – all lost the race 5/02/06 – 1 selection scoring 3 – lost the race 6/02/06 – 1 selection scoring 4 – lost the race 7/02/06 – 1 selection scoring 5 – won the race at 3/1 8/02/06 – 1 selection scoring 4 – lost the race 9/02/06 – 2 selections scoring 4 – both lost the race 10/02/06 – 1 selection scoring 4 – fell 11/02/06 – 2 selections scoring 5 – one wins at 3/1 – the other loses at 8/1 12/02/06 – 1 selection scoring 4 – pulled up 13/02/06 – 1 selection scoring 5 – lost the race 14/02/06 – 1 selection scoring 5 – lost the race 15/02/06 – 1 selection scoring 5 – won at 4/1 16/02/06 – 1 selection scoring 4 – lost the race
Over 19 selections we had just 3 winners – currently an 85% strike rate. With a nominal £10 target per race we would have lost an accumulative £100 in liabilities on our winning selections and won £160. So yes, with these crude calculations we are in profit, and that is the important thing. Using a staking plan like the one advised with the system to recover losses would have naturally given us a full profit AS IF all selections had won. Bearing in mind that, so far, losing selections (ie the horse has won the race) have not come after each other, this could be a good policy to employ.
All in all this is an excellent and simple to use selection system. If you work during the day and stick to one a day, you can place your lay selections in the morning. To order the system, please contact Nick St. John: Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.. The manual retails for £10.95 on ebay. Sign in – click my community – enter user id Nick8081 and click on sellers items.
System 2: Simon Forsyth’s Laying for Profit
This package offers a simple 5-step strategy for selecting horses to oppose. Now there is a potential sticking point with this particular strategy – that of multiple qualifying selections in any given day, sometimes as many as 13!
If you are looking for a simple one a day selection strategy, this system may not be for you. But if you can follow the day’s racing, the number of losers picked has been impressive. As a whole, over our test period, there have been 53 selections, 43 have lost their races (we win) and 10 winners (we lose) ranging in price from 4/6 to 3/1.
The importance of price when selections we have opposed actually win is an important one, and this is where the system scores well.
If the prices remain at 3/1 and lower, our liabilities remain at a level where they can be managed and offset by the profits made from our winning lay selections.
In keeping liabilities to a steady 5% of our betting bank (notice here I said liabilities and not stakes) the profits soon accumulate and we are never in danger of losing our betting bank by being in a position of having too great a liability on a single selection.
The author also advocates stakes retrieval as a method of getting losses back. Simply put, we seek to recover our lost liabilities on a horse that has won by incorporating this figure into our next selections stake. Stakes retrieval is a risky proposition and is not for everyone. Why? Because our stakes and liabilities will increase if we reach a stage where 4 of our selections in a row actually win the race.
I am far happier advocating the steady 5% of our betting bank as liability and let the 43 winning selections’ profits outweigh the losses incurred.
This package comes with a CD-Rom to fully explain the system and clear, unambiguous instructions. I was particularly taken by the unique ways of cutting losses by trading in running – a very novel and practical way to control our losses.
Despite the large number of selections per day, Laying For Profit is a professional package, and covers all of the elements we need to make laying pay. It is currently only available via Ebay at the moment, at a cost of £55 – an investment I’m confident you will return many times over. For more details e-mail Simon Forsyth at laying4profits @yahoo.com.
System 3: The Ultimate Horse Laying System
What immediately strikes me about this system is the relative simplicity of the selection process. Comprising only 3 pages, it’s quality rather than quantity here. With only 4 processes to follow, you will soon be picking a whole bunch of donkeys (hopefully) in no time.
So how did this laying system perform? Putting a limit of laying horses priced at 5.0 or lower (to keep liabilities in check) the results are as follows:
4/02/06 – 3 selections – all lost they races
5/02/06 – no selections
6/02/06 – 2 selections – 1 lost its race 1 winner at 9/4 (we lose) 7/02/06 – 1 selection – lost its race 8/02/06 – 2 selections – both lost their race 9/02/06 – no qualifying selections 10/02/06 – no qualifying selections 11/02/06 – 1 selection – 1 winner at 10/3 – we lose 12/02/06 – no qualifying selections 13/02/06 – no qualifying selections 14/02/06 – 3 selections – 1 lost its race – 2 win their races at 3/1 at 11/4 15/02/06 – 2 selections – both lost their races 16/02/06 – 3 selections – all lost their races.
So far, since I received the system, it has produced 4 winners from 17 selections, at short odds. Luckily the odds are short enough to ensure lost liabilities don’t hurt. The advertised staking system will take care of these odd losers over time. Constant tracking of this system will show its true colours. As ever, we will be reviewing on a monthly basis. A profit was made during this test period and, as I said, with the staking plan in place, we can profit from this simple system.
Priced at £24.94, I’m convinced it will soon return more than the initial investment. To order go to: http://www.horselayingsystem.com/index.html .
Bottom Line: A great choice of systems here: the first one offers you a chance to pick just one selection a day if you’re unable to follow the day’s racing through work commitments. The 2nd system is ideal if you can follow the day’s racing to pick multiple selections with an 80% strike rate. And finally, the 3rd system is simplified and easily selects potential opposable horses in minutes. Each one, I believe, will produce a good profit over the long term. Of course, I’ll make sure you’re kept fully informed of the relative performance of each system.