With all of the favourite backing target profit per day systems on the market, I thought I’d continue this “reader” edition with a system devised by reader Tony Horrocks. Over to you Tony… “I could go into the usual copywriters spiel – having spent a fortune on useless tipsters and systems that don’t work” but I won’t, although it is true!
All this waste of time (years) and money made me wonder if I could work out a system or method of my own which would actually make money! I saw one a few years ago which looked OK. It was backing favourites at a minimum S.P. of 11/8 – stop at a winner (based on 33% of races won by the
favourites). The staking method went: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 on six races at selected meeting of the day, which was alright except the panic of a losing day could bring huge losses (£630 on a losing day).
Recently I came to the conclusion that Stop at A Winner (S.A.W) was perhaps a viable proposition, with a number of chances of a winner each day. The big question was what to use as a source for selections! Favourites, second favourites, Robin Goodfellows selections (Daily Mail), or Gimcrack (Daily Mail) or Racing Post tipsters, Spotlight etc? The list goes on! I stumbled on it almost by accident. I had been using The Daily Express to get the selections required by Simon Foreman’s “My Grandad’s (or was it Father in Law) Secret Formula” or something like that! Honest chap gave me a refund when I sent him my paper trial of useless results! I then switched back to The Daily Mail (DM). I follow the racing section and noticed that, although the DM betting forecasts are often miles out when comparing them to The Racing Post (RP) betting forecasts (pretty accurate) or www.oddschecker.com, a good proportion of their probable S.P. favourites did actually win!
So evolved my method, based as follows:
1. Daily Aim – £50
2. Stop At a Winner.
3. Minimum SP – 2/1 (approx 3.2 on Betfair)
4. The selection of course is the first named in the DM forecast SP for each race. If there is a non-runner, either move on to next race or use second named in the forecast.
5. Start betting with the first race of the day and carry on with the next race on time basis, (minimum starting price (S.P.) 2/1– 3.2 Betfair) until a winner. After a losing bet add the lost stake onto the Aim to give the new Aim for the next race on which to bet.
6. I use an XL spreadsheet to record each day the selections from the DM betting forecast in race time order and the calculations are set up to work out the stake required on each race selection which we will bet on. E.g. £50 aim divided by Betfair Price minus one. (4.3-1 = 3.3) in this example the stake will be £50 divided by 3.3 (4.3-1) = £15.15. This can be rounded up or down or the actual amount staked. I did also incorporate in the calculator 5% to cover Betfair commission. (Don’t forget minimum Betfair price of 3.2!)
My method is very simple – no form etc to research. It takes me approx 20 – 25 minutes to log the selections onto my spreadsheet. I usually do this about 30 – 60 mins before the first race of the day (it could be done anytime in the morning before racing starts). The DM forecast price for the selection is also logged on the spreadsheet (this will usually indicate if a bet is likely or not) I then write the Betfair prices onto the spreadsheet. These prices can be entered onto the spreadsheet before racing commences and updated just prior to each race if continuing to bet.
This can also have the benefit of indicating any significant changes in the Betfair market! I use Binteko Fairbot software for this (www.binteko.com), it’s quick and prices are updated every second! Being retired I can watch some of the races on A.T.R. and place bets quickly when result of previous betting race is known. I suppose the bets could be placed on a SAW basis using SP or any known prices from bookmaker, but I haven’t tried this. The results from using my method have been particularly encouraging so far. Commencing on 17th November 2006, up to 27th May2007 there were only 11 losing days. The largest loss was £50, the next largest £283. The Bank now stands at £6,568! Because the system fails so infrequently, I recover losses over 3 days. This has worked well so far, just a couple of occasions when two losing days came close together.
As the Bank increases substantially after a while, recovery does not cause too many worries! The winners always come along on a regular basis! I would suggest anyone trying the system should “paper trade” for a week or two, then, with a bank of £500, start with a daily target of, say, £10, then after two weeks increase to £20, until confidence is established. The £50 per day can be the target! Once the starting Bank of £500 has been doubled, the original £500 can be withdrawn and betting continue with winnings! The Daily Aim could of course be increased for anyone having a bigger starting bank, or increased as the bank grows. It won’t make millionaires, but can give a nice steady little extra income or pension. Some days “work” is finished after the first race, but it can go on for a while until you get your winner! Although it is very simple to operate, there is still a buzz from watching your selection win (even if it’s only on a Betfair screen – that 1.01 figure that pops up gives a very good feeling!) OK! Your short head loser gives anguish, but, at least you know that your winner will come eventually!
No doubt refinements could be made to my method. I almost panic at heavy going in hurdle and chase races and “Banded” racing makes me want to “Abandon” it! However, Plumpton 11th December- going –Ugh! Produced two winners at 2/1 and 4/1! Banded races at Southwell on 12th December produced two winners at 11/4 and 9/2! So! What does one do? Latest update! Dec 13th first race, Banded!! At Lingfield our selection won! Interestingly, Betfair price went to 3.45 just before the off, making it a bet for the system. I got on at 3.30, But, the winning SP was 7/4! I tend to be guided by the Betfair price.
Someone using bookie’s prices, probably 15/8 or 7/4 may not have bet on this, but no problem, the next Lingfield race won at 5/2 (4.3 Betfair!) I think that anyone adopting this method will, from their personal experience, refine the system to their own needs and it does provide scope for that. No doubt other selection sources could be used, but this one works and will do so without any changes! It certainly works for me!”
My thanks must go to Tony Horrocks for offering to share his experience and what is, for him at least, a profitable system.
Systems such as the above are known as “target profit per day” systems and inevitably involve some blind backing of favourites in a general stop at a winner basis. So what’s on the market?